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1 22 2 Ò Ä Vol. 22 No ý 4 TORPEDO TECHNOLOGY Apr. 204 一种基于多阶段数据的实航工作可靠度评估方法 ò ä, v 2, 2 (. 750 Â ek æ, f, 65005; 2. Ð, f, ) : Êfg«Œ æ, ÿ f Šùž Î Æ Ÿ, e æ øqž o, e Œ g«æ fž o, eæ, Ñæ Â læ øqž ºÀ : æ ; ž o; Ÿ f É ú: TJ63.6 h u: A ú: (204) A Asseset Method for Operatioal Reliability i Sea Trial Based o Multi-stage Experietal Data LIAO Fu-kui, ZHOU Chu-ig 2, ZHAO Mi 2 (. Navy Represetative Office Statioed i Kuig 750 Test Rage, Kuig 65005, Chia; 2. Kuig Shipbore Equipet Research & Test Ceter, Kuig , Chia) Abstract: For solvig the proble that the sea trial data caot be used i operatioal reliability asseset due to the chage of product techcal coditio i differet stages, a asseset ethod for operatioal reliability i sea trial based o ulti-stage sea trial data is preseted by usig the reliability stage growth odel with ordered costrait bioial distributio ad the Bayesia statistics. Applicatio results show that this asseset ethod ca iprove the utilizatio of the data fro sea trial, ad assess the operatioal reliability objectively ad ecooically i sea trial. Keywords: sea trial; reliability asseset; Bayesia statistics 0 æ øqž ¼ž å Š, æ Â læ ø qž, ž ý q s t ê, ž Œ g p t u,, dž t,, æ øqž y pá ¼ Œ, f ¼ Ð Ñ, l Œ, æ øqž o ý, Ñ éæ øqž l, j Ñ å ŠŠ Ð Êfæ œ, îe å [-3], œ ežµ Á g Ê, Ê fg«œ æ, ÿ f Šùž Î Æ, œ w, Œ ž, Ÿ, ê w åæ, e æ øqž o, o, ƒ u ø ÿ l{, vfø s, Š eg«œ { ; ~v è (963-),, Ï, ø ú, ž. 45

2 204 ý 4 22 æ w, e, å æ z. Œ æ Á ¼ Œ,, î æ Œ Œ åæ Š g æ žœ Ñ Á l{ w, À Fig. ÍÂ ö Scheatic ulti-stage sea trial data ) Œ Œ æ î, æ œ, œ Œ, ý œ,, j g«ž g«2) åæ åg«, g«ž Œ ý p, f k ¼ Ð Ñ, Ï Ñ f q, øñ, Œ Œ l Ñ «, æ, îêá, i åææ og«ž ý, o Š,, éæ w Ñ Š 3) æ iœ e ž ý,, dœ e Œ ž ý.2 o eæ Â æ øqž o, æ, ì o, k 3 w ) qšùw, qšù q îšù w éf ¼ æ, ê ž å Ò, æ f Šù 2) Œ æ w f Œ æ Šù w, j Œ Œ æ, p, g«, ž ýd, ž Î, ê ŒåÆ w, ì eg«, ž ýd 3) w g«åææ, fåææ w, Š l{ ÊfÑ æ øqž o ÿê 3 w, žæ læ ø qž, o À 2 Fig. 2 2 z Flow chart of asseset ƒq : a. Œ Œ åæ æ, Œ Œ q, åæ q ; b. œ ÿ f Šùž Î Æ, ê 3 ŒåÆ, œ ; c. œ Ÿ o, ê, 46 Torpedo Techology

3 204 ý 4 è, : ÊfÑ æ øqž o 2 Œæ ; d. æ øqž 2 2. Î o f Šù g«, { i ( i,2,, ) Ò (, si, f i), ž R i ÿ l Ri R i < () ž u w, ÿ f Šùž Î Æ ž Î Š åg«ž [4], Æ g g g é i kœ i +, Á fi / + < fi / i, 47 P i fi+ fi si+ si fi+ x x Pi (2) + x 0 α, j i œ i, ž Î,, ê ý, q Î,, ýα üœ 0.2 w μμ ( γ) a s 2 γ μ ( μ)( μ γ) 2 λ μ, μ, γ R 2, 2 + h μ A w( h, h2,, h 2 2 g h sh h + s2 h h + g g2 g h h γ A w( h, h2,, h 2 2 ( g )( g + + 2) h sh h + s2 h h + ( + )( + ) g g g 2 + A w( h, h2,, h 2 2 g h sh h + s2 h h + s gi s() i + f () i i, i,2,, i s() i sk k sk sk + 0.5, k,2,, i f () i fk k fk fk + 0.5, k,2,, gi wh (, h2,, h Bs ( i+ + hi, gi+ fi+ hi) hi i Šù [5-6] 2.2 Ÿ o Ÿ Š e q 3 w fθ Šw, œ e Š θ w Œ, éθ éf Æf Šù, Õ, s, θ oœ, h s ps ( / θ) θ ( θ) s s (3) (4) e Š, Šù Šù, ÌŠùβ (a, b), åœ a, b, ž θ Šù

4 204 ý 4 22 a+ s π( θ / s) θ ( θ) s+ b (5) θ Ÿ o a+ s θ + a + b (6) œ a, b : Á, a, Ò b, ê ý, +a+b, a+s, f Œž o { 2.3 œ å θ Šù ÌŠùβ (a,b), œ è a b Γ ( a+ b) θ ( θ) π ( θ) β( ab, ) Γ( a) Γ( b) (7) e Ÿ, w å Šù œ a, b, Šp Šp s é w, Á æ øqž oø æ, æ [6] w R ( s ), R 2, ( 2 2) R ( s ), œ a, b s,, a s i E R i a+ b i i ab 2 2 s ( ) 2 E Ri ( a+ b)( a+ b) i si ( E ) 2 i (8) éf (8) w ÿ f Š ùž Î ÆŠ Œ, i, w, q Ð, Ð Õ i, 2 áá, j (8) a s sa a+ b sa+ (9) œ a sa, b f, (6) (9) æ + sa+ ss s + sa ff ss (0) 2.4 æ øqž Ÿ o Ñ, eø æ vf, ƒf Šù [7], R + ff F ss L 2ff + 2,2 ss; α () : RL ž w {; α w ; ss ; ff Ò ; 3 ~ g«œ e 2 3, îeåæ, îæ, Õ Ÿ Í Table Data fro sea trial i f i s i i åæ 5 6 j ž, åæ îêá, i og«ž ý, o Š, ê 2 3 q,, åæ, kœåæ ž o, é ~ 2 2~ 3 Î Š, ž P 0., P 2 0. œ ý 0.2, ~ 2 2~ 3 ž Î ÿ f Šùž Î Æê 2 3, Œ s a 78.0, f a.5, a 79.5 Ÿ ê åæ, Œ ss93, ff2.5, 95.5 œž w 0.8, f Œg«æ øqž R L Torpedo Techology

5 204 ý 4 è, : ÊfÑ æ øqž o 2 4 ¼ æ øqž y, Ñ eæ æ Â oæ øqž, îeñ, e o j îæ Œæ œ, ÿ f Šùž Î Æ, Œ æ, ž Î Š, œ w, e Œ g«æ fž å,, Ÿ, ê w åææ, e æ øqž o, o, ƒ u ø ÿ l{, ý Š g«œ æ w, e õ h: []. Ñ ž å [J]., 200, 8(6): Zhou Chu-ig. Reliability Estiatio Method of Torpedo i Multiode Coditio Test[J]. Torpedo Techology, 200, 8(6): [2], Ÿ,. æ øqž å [J]., 20, 9(6): He Cheg-gag, Ye Hao-jie, Zhag Di. A Iproved Method for Evaluatig Torpedo s Workig Reliability i Sea Trial[J]. Torpedo Techology, 20, 9(6): [3], å. Êf qž å [J]., 202, 20(4): Zhou Chu-ig, Lü Hog. A Reliability Evaluatio Method for Uderwater Vehicle Based o Rug Tie[J]. Torpedo Techology, 202, 20(4): [4]. ž Î å [M]. h: h ÑÑã, 997: [5],,. ž [M]. h:, 2008: [6]. Ÿ [M]. h: À, 2005:3-5. [7],. ž å[m]. h: ã, 990: («{ ±: Ö) ÒÄ rº. Ñ ž Î Š. è,,. 203, 2(6). 2. ¼ æ ž å.,,. 203, 2(4). 3. ¼ ž o.,. 203, 2(2). 4. ž Bayes., ä, À. 202, 20(5). 5. Êf qž å., å. 202, 20(4). 6. Êf w žw æ øqž Bayes o. À,, vk. 202, 20(2). 7. æ øqž å., Ÿ,. 20, 9(6). 8. Êf Ïq œ å ž Š., h,,. 20, 9(6). 9. Ñ ž å.. 200, 8(6). 0. Œ ž o.. 200, 8(3).. Ð ÐäÕ.,. 2007, 5(2). 2. æ øqž å., ï,. 2006, 4(2). 49

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