國立中山大學學位論文典蔵.PDF

立理論陸 (KSF) 劉年 i

論立論理 (9141665) 論陸行論劉劉 () /() 劉李 ii

論料論立理年度論論陸 V 不論料行料館館不數數行路論利不理料年 V 不論料館館不立契行行利錄行利不欄若劉年若論北路料 iii

論年度 92 2 立理論 () 陸 (KSF) 論 () The KSF study of operating steel industry for Taiwanese merchant forward to Mainland China. 類 9141665 論數 118 ( ) ( )Fu, Ming-Te ( ) 劉 ( )Liu, Chang-Yung ( ) ( )H. Jason Huang Chao,Ping-Yi iv

陸陸年兩數臨理陸行不易理行行拓不易不量令令不令令理行率落立料 1998 年理兩 127 1997 年 70 陸臨不 (KSF) 率理料兩領 (HD) 理論兩理陸陸 AHP 利 AHP 陸行度論論陸略陸 (KFS) 領 (HD) (AHP) v

Abstract The Mainland China has been the global newest economic body, having the fastest growth in economy. It is now being developed and built by way of internationalization. It further combines itself with the entire development of the great East Asia economic circle and tries to become the next international economic center all over the world. Its economy fast grows at a speed of almost annual two-digit. It will become the third economic body in the whole world in scale. Because it nears Taiwan, so reasonably turns into one of the favorite destinations which Taiwanese enterprises prefer moving out overseas in recent years. However, the investment risk in Mainland China is very high. When it comes to finance, it is not easy to ask for the loan of bank. When human matter is concerned, it is closing of information and the difficulty about management. As for marketing, you have to face the obstacle with regard to market opening and collecting market information. Concerning about production, the insufficiency of traffic facility and the restraint of electric power supply exist. As to law, the inconsistency about the explanation of rule among the responsible officials and the unpredictable changes in policy often occur. When it comes to general operation management, not only does the administrative efficiency lower, but extra social fees and concoct expenses flood. According to the statistical data of the communication foundation between straits, the number of dispute cases having been received by the foundation is 127 in 1998, almost twice, 70 in 1997. To sum up, the problems happening among Taiwanese merchant about investing in Mainland China are full of all kinds. Therefore, it is sure to raise the rate of success in business only by way of finding out the key success factorksfabout investing and operating. The main procedures of this study consist of the followings: To collect and manipulate the concerning domestic, foreign reference in order to analyze the operating mode of steel industry between straits. To try to find out the KSF about operating steel industry among Taiwanese merchant forward to Mainland China operate steel industry supervision according to the theoretical mode of habitual domainshd. Professional questionnaire - to use the professional questionnaire to collect the KSF. AHP questionnaire - to make use of analytical hierarchy processahp to proceed to the analysis study in priority for the KSF. According to the result of the second questionnaire to discuss, analyze and suggest. Anticipate providing Taiwanese merchant forward to Mainland China operate steel industry the great strategy decision and utilization basis in priority about the KSF from the conclusion of this study. Key Words Taiwanese merchant forward to Mainland Chinasteel industryksfkey success factorhdhabitual domainsahpanalytical hierarchy process vi

論劉勵利論老論益良讀年來兩年不都令識了來行精勵論了論聯力力利論都年 vii

錄論...ii 論... iii 論...iv...v Abstract...vi...vii 錄... viii 錄...xi 錄... xiii 論...1...1...2...4...5 流...5...7 (KSF)...7 領 (HD) 理論...9 (AHP) 理論...21 兩...26 viii

什...26 兩...28 契...31 兩來...35 兩...38...38 陸...45 兩...51 陸...58...69...69...70...75 AHP...78...80 六論...84 論...84...85...87 參...89 錄 AHP 理論流...97 錄...105 ix

錄 AHP...110 x

錄 1-1 陸陸...2 2-1...7 4-1 爐煉爐煉...40 4-2...44 4-3 2002 年陸量...46 4-4 兩...53 4-5 1999-2002 年兩易...54 4-6 兩...55 4-7 兩 SWOT...56 4-8 兩...57 4-9 陸...59 4-10 陸行...61 5-1...71 5-2...72 5-3...73 5-4Porter 略...74 5-5 略...75 5-6...76 5-7AHP 料...80 錄 1-1 度...100 xi

錄 1-2...101 錄 1-3 n...103 xii

錄 1-1 流...6 2-1 領理論說...12 4-1 流...39 4-2 陸...48 5-1...70 5-2 陸...78 5-3 陸 AHP...79 5-4 量...81 5-5...81 5-6...82 5-7 略...82 5-8 陸...83 6-1 陸...86 xiii

論量兩年量 (2000) 來隆不金螺螺臨更契來連利不省力流臨拓量列車年來 Foreign Direct Investment, FDI 數不利廉 Multinational Enterprises 不惡行降力行了易了異 1

料陸易量陸陸陸了陸 1991 年 2001 年 2 陸數 23,111 金 175.46 累 1991 年 2001 年 2 陸 40 1.1 陸流 1-1 陸陸年度數金 () 1991 237 174,158 1992 264 246,992 1993 1,262 1,140,365 1994 934 962,209 1995 490 1,092,713 1996 383 1,229,241 1997 728 1,614,542 1998 641 1,519,209 1999 488 1,252,780 2000 840 2,607,142 料來陸料 (2001) 年來陸 2

來都不兩立陸不不年不陸陸聯陸來龍陸來聯陸陸益來數料不不陸聯連不更陸福省北勞陸金率金金年來金率行略金年 3

陸陸 WTO 理陸廉料陸陸陸 1. 陸廉勞力力 2. 陸易 3. 料陸陸了降陸陸陸略行量.. 年來惡不勞識力陸行臨不力 1980 年來陸來了陸略陸略類類都臨量陸陸陸力量參行理兩兩理陸利陸 4

理參料行陸列力力兩理行陸數零行不度流行 -- -- 讀料 (AHP) 領 (HD) 理讑兩兩兩 -- 陸六論 5

論流領理論理論兩兩什兩契兩來兩兩陸兩陸六論論論 1-1 流 6

(KSF) key success factor, KSF, critical success factor, CSF 念 Daniel1961Management Information Crisis 都六 Tillett1989 念理論來劣說 (2000) 理數不見 KSF 異異 2-1 年領 Daniel1961 了 MIS Hofer & Schendel 1978 Rockart1979 Munro & Wheeler 1980 Tginosib & Strickland 1981 Martin1982 Boynton & Zmud 1984 Leidecker & Bruno 1984 領利理行了度了領 Key Area 理了若理益參數略理 MIS MIS 略理 MIS MIS 略理 7

Glueck & Jauck1984 略理 Arisoff1984 略利略理 1985 領略理 Boseman1986 略略理 Rue & Holland1987 略理 Byars1987 Hofer & Schendel 1987 良略理略理 Asker1988 略理 Thomas1988 1988 略數略理略理 Dill & Jones1989 略理 Tillett1989 1992 略來劣略行略理 MIS 1997 數類不不異 MIS 1999 李 1999 力 8 略理略理

1999 力力狀若兩便略理料來 (2000) 量理來力狀不若數便來 ( ) 理論料領 (HD) 理論理識刺狀識理行年龍類行理行識不領說領理論領領領率領領理論領理論說 9

來都識理刺狀便便領領行行良說不領說神行力類神便亮度狀領便理來說類行了領類力行念路領更領領念念路來念路領領不論領都裡行例說年兩車車車車裡了兩老 10

說理都老理車老車麗例都領領領不立立便來說領理領領理論龍了領類力行念路領領領了領裡路念領力路念率路念力率領來路念領領理論更了領理領靈隸領度理力念領理論說 11

2-1 領理論說領理論說念來易來力力念力力度念 12

類聯立立便來說立都理立力力力度力力力易力度力力力力來行來來不力來便不類行類類類來狀不兩切不諸兩便更不更易行怒不不行便 13

行度降理精領不念都都力行不切樂不領聯參數例旅讀不理輪流力 14

例離略離度理理理兩降力力度老說理理領了理來不不不藍不立理不來立念利立理理都歷老歷練都都聯理領立聯理領不理行理來論若論 15

裂理裂裂說裂絶裂領裂來裂領理領不領領易靈不領度理領理立聯裂來說領不念更都領不力了領不更更類類聯識來理領便龍不了不領例不領不了不行陸類領不 16

不諸類聯度行不例力列力領不論領 Habitual DomainsHD 理論類聯來領理論來類臨利數行領不領理論 KSF 領理論領理論料立領不領念隸度類 / 聯類 / 聯隸度聯類 / 聯領理領理論說 17

量 h Y Y = h U y j=1 j U 聯領領 ADk k 領 k 1,2,3,,n AD 領 { ( x, ( x) ) x X } AD = µ AD n X = U AD = U{ AD K = 1,2,3,..., n} k = 1 K { x 1 x 2 x 3 x t } AD ( x i ) x i 隸 AD 度 K x i 數數 3. 隸度領念隸度 x i 率 ω 數 xi 18

ω xi 數 x i 數數數數數隸度 AD (x i ) AD ( x i ) x i 隸 AD 度 x i 數數隸度 AD { x X µ ( x α } * AD ADα = AD = ) 4. 領 x i y j 類 / 聯類 / 聯領立 x i 類 / 聯 y j 隸度令 Ry x 類 / 聯 { ( x, y) µ R ( x, y) ( x, y) ( X, Y ) } µ x, y ) y j x i 類 / 聯數 x i R ( i j 數 i1,2,3,,tj1,2,3,,h x i 隸領度不領隸度領隸度 AD (x i ) x ) µ x, y ) AD ( i µ x i R ( i j 領 RDx i y RD( x ) = { ( x ) ( x, y ) α; Y } AD i j µ AD i µ 19 R i j y j xi

RDx i ( y j x i 類 / 聯數數 ) RDx i AD ( x i ) R x i, y j ( x i 數數 ) ( y j x i 類 / 聯數 xi 數 ) ( y j x i 類 / 聯數數 ) 領 RDX i 聯 AD 領 RDAD RD ( AD ) = U { RD ( x ) x AD i i } U 聯 AD RDAD 聯領 RD AD RDAD (). 陸立陸量參論陸度類 / 聯領 (AD) 立 AD 類 / 聯 (R) 領 AD 類 / 聯 (R) 隸度陸 20

不 --cuts) 隸度領 RD AD RD AD 陸兩理 (AHP) 年類不易行 (AHP) 5 7 - 識度 0.75() 0.75 數數 (AHP) 理論諸量 Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP 年利立不了立 AHP 行更易 AHP 不立 Saaty, 1980 (). 說 (). 不易率更更 21

(). 利率 ().ReliableFlexibility 不率了數年來立不異連例度見兩兩來不度更量論都臨都便 Thomas, L. Saaty l971 年臨 Saaty 1972 1978 年金力丹不例行行理 Saaty 1980 年論 Saaty, 1980Saaty & Vargas, 1982 列 Saaty, 1990Saaty & Vargas, 1991 1. (Setting Priorities) 2. 行 (Generating a Set of Alternatives) 3. (Choosing the Best Policy Alternative) 22

4. (Determining Requirements) 5. 益 (Making Decision Using Benefits and Costs) 6. (Allocating Resources) 7. - (Predicting Outcomes-Risk Assessment) 8. 量 (Measuring Performance) 9. (Designing a System) 10. (Ensuring System Stability) 11. (Optimizing) 12. (Planning) 13. (Conflict Resolution) 臨利利 AHP 行列 & 1989 (). 類 Components 路 (). 立 Independence (). 行 (). 數度例度 Ratio Scale ().Pairwise ComparisonPositive Reciprocal Matrix 理 23

( 六 ).Transitivity (). 不易不 Consistency 度不度 (). (). 不論 AHP 行識 (). 數 Reciprocal Comparison 行度數若 A B a B 1/a A ().Homogeneity 理度 (). 立 Independence 立 ().Expectations 了不漏略流 (). (). 列 (). 立 (). (). 立 ( 六 ). 量 24

(). 率 (). 量 (AHP) 理論行流說參錄 25

兩立利益流不若易率利不易來率利益力壟降理力量立益益易便拓立易力什年來路了更 R&D 金不不臨切臨不律兩兩律歷暴暴亂度留度不 26

不立烈勞勞不度見路不來兩年來勞不勞臨律來勞勞勞力不良率陸 (2002) 了陸便陸不行理力識理識異六理力識陸留例露行陸陸例說年說 27

說契度度不金不不來行率行陸率什都來了都例省不行六陸歷都北福省北省六零料不勞力流路六都勞力不勞力論陸了了裡兩來陸切領年陸離陸切來不 1949 年陸兩 1949 年兩列 1949~1979 年陸狀 28

流都兩都 1972 年陸陸度陸 1979~1987 陸 1978 年行 1979 年兩易行料 1984 年寛陸兩易 1979 年料金 1980 年兩易 1987 年陸 5 % 兩易不兩易 1987~1994 1987 年陸陸料陸 1990 年 1991 年立流金兩理兩律旅行兩易年率 37.14 % 1993 年陸 8.25 % 利立陸利陸勞力廉立 1994~ 陸福便北北北北年來更陸金逹 300 陸兩歷陸金金率不來勞力陸不陸 29

陸陸 (). 陸年 300 (). 來數度 (). 了 multinational corporation) 例都陸陸來陸陸切陸陸陸來來不來率陸勞年率裡來勞兩洞金流數金金年兩洞料年年數度降都洞都了 30

都洞落契年來臨識略力裡力來略力理都說略理兩 1/10 1/6 1/2 陸 1/60 ( 98.08%) 金切金都來易臨力不不數 2000 年 GNP3,139 (2001 年降 2883 ) 48,141 15.3 1999 年 60.7 1,319.7 21.7 福車來車 2000 年 1,833 福 1,700 來 GNP 福 R&D 11% 68.3 不領理例都不數不數不 31

來不陸 ( 北年 3,000 ) 力量陸陸不陸不陸來略陸列立立 branding 勵路來連裡不立了良不略立不力立例 L.V 300 年歷崙行李 Benze 車年歷 Chanel 年理念離不了 cheep 歷了精神來臨來利益若精神立陸都陸陸陸陸立陸立北北行 32

行行來陸狀行量都行陸 6070 年行都行行行略度識不了裡落靈陸不陸陸來兩不行行 (outsourcing) 略力行力 70 金力 70 率理來精行略略略利 NIKE 例 NIKE 不略念略裡 33

Outsourcing 不略益利益陸度都來利陸陸不陸念不陸年略例量率不異陸益略例力量量力零料列陸陸陸利利利兩陸力力行力里陸益六 22% 力 WTO 陸更來陸力陸廉來陸來陸識了力不歷來力陸不陸 34

力立力力陸陸里不論陸都 3~5 % 來略不陸陸陸里流金流流逹兩來陸亮麗數陸不陸說陸年理羅說陸例來說陸 500 年 10 率不 50 2 金 1 率 200 10 率不 1 率來陸力量陸陸利不陸不不陸兩陸裡力 e-hub 陸金陸陸立兩略 35

立利陸易切兩陸兩切北力量陸廉勞力金勞力利利陸兩切力利益來兩力陸參陸兩理陸來陸不兩不兩兩來來不兩 (). 兩流流識兩切 (). 兩聯略聯都 (). 兩 36

異異勞力度異兩 (). 北易聯立不利兩利力量力兩力不不兩 37

兩易度料年來都良力聯金類料年復年年年料年爐煉量量類數來料年煉類類年年了冷類爐類行列量類例煉爐煉爐煉料 38

度冷度流煉煉 4-1 流 39

爐煉料料料爐精鍊連類裡煉爐爐兩不兩行兩 4-1 爐煉爐煉類爐煉爐煉爐 1/4 爐力金易量力不來降爐量不不不不爐金料來 (1995) 年年年年北隆路路路理理金年力領力廉隆利爐煉料連 40

省陋煉爐量年量陸復爐林北爐煉螺理金立螺復路硫了爐路爐煉兩來復行兩復北了復率律不煉復復年立料量復煉爐力年量年陸淪金不靈年力行復爐爐來理 41

量復留來量沈量廉年年了力拓年來來理離年立拓年年理易年數年易勵年累廉勞力勞力來易識 42

年輪年祥易了兩輪了年行易勵勵不六年行列了不廉料了立了年立煉年立立煉料例煉立來了煉行類省煉煉立省量料來煉來益刺益 43

年年年陸北兩年數量落落了料了了劣來來料狀異了利來力降更理 4-2 50 年量復不 50 年量 60 年 70 年更力立爐更 80 年料來 (1995) 年量不更年年立落來老不 44

更力年陸年來陸路年類利陸了陸略若年陸年陸陸益陸車陸力陸年來陸年陸量年年量量年度量量年年陸量年年更年陸年陸陸利聯洛年陸更龍盧洛陸陸年金 45

陸陸不不參力年陸量年率車行年陸年量了刺了陸量年年度年年量兩量度年陸不量 4-3 2002 年陸量量年量冷 46

說料來聯來年陸力 2003 年率 7.9% 北路北車行量 2003 年陸行度來 2~3 年車陸力陸 20 年量量 20% 冷量量 40% 爐量量 50% 陸 2001 年車量 233 2002 年 325 2003 年車量 400 年車量 650 若 2010 年陸車量 1000 陸陸 1970 年料 1996 年陸量 1 率 99 不來陸 47

量略了益 1992 年狀度滑力陸陸量度來陸 ( 4-2) 陸 90 年來陸 15-20 年 2010-2015 年陸度陸陸 162kg/ 陸 4-2 陸料來金 ITIS 理陸力數連陸度不來陸 48

量陸年 (2003)8 年來陸 (). 陸勵益力 (). 立落 (). 度 (). 勵 (). 勵度陸陸亮麗陸陸來滑陸度量來陸陸 49

不利陸行臨陸不力不 (WTO) 來陸陸陸量陸更烈諾陸律不見量陸降年陸降螺降降 WTO 陸流臨更了更例利利年陸益律易度陸易陸易更度利利利 50

陸略陸量陸行了陸利利落度行不利陸陸不力量劣不年冷車料量冷不爐冷精度不領陸類兩略不度易冷易流來力來 90 年量 1989 年 7.8 滑落 1991 年滑率 4.68%1993-1994 降 7 1998 年金暴來量度滑率 2.87% 不 2001 年 23 年了 Bethlehem LTV OECD 黎聯落年易 70 年龍 51

80 年量了 90 年陸 (1995 年陸量 9 5 量 12.6%) 2001 年 3 年量年率 3% 力陸車行度 2002 年陸率更 24% 1990 年 2002 年量陸來 10 年量陸陸度兩易來益陸量例 1999 年 38% 2002 年 56.4%( 500 ) 陸度年不度年來陸金兩度來兩兩兩異數量量量 / 例數量量量量 / 率力 4-4 率念來兩狀數陸 8% 數更 1.8% 量 10% 量 20% 力陸量陸 3 率 3 陸 35 兩不力陸 52

4-4 兩 2002 年陸 2002 年數 227 3,000 4.45 251 量 1,818 18,155 量量 / 例 W12 / 2% W1 / 20.1% 數 196 / 837 / 量 ( 不量 ) 3,759 19,218 量 16.5 / 6.4 / 量 365 2,449 量 886 545 / 率 76.4% / 23.6% 97.2% / 2.8% 力 49.7% 27.1% 27.9% 19.0% 12.9% 料來 92 年金力兩易來年來冷不年來陸陸 2002 年來說陸陸例 1999 年 38 2002 年 56.4 陸度年 2002 年 770 679 88.1% 易來陸年 1999 年 2002 年兩易料 4-5 53

4-5 1999-2002 年兩易數量陸率數量陸率數量陸率 2002 2001 2000 1999 年量 769.8 123.7 893.5 54.7 67.1 陸量 421.3 83.0 504.3 年量 674.1 102.4 776.5 44.9 67.5 陸量 302.9 69.1 372.0 年量 704.9 100.5 805.4 38.1 56.7 陸量 268.5 57.0 325.5 年量 654.6 85.0 739.6 35.2 59.2 陸量 230.4 50.3 280.7 56.4 47.9 40.4 38.0 說陸量陸料來 / 金理數量陸陸料陸來年陸陸來不陸易略量陸年 (2003 年 )8 1 173 陸類類不類年 8 1 陸陸來兩易易陸量數不量來兩都陸不率來兩不陸量 54

兩 4-6 4-6 兩陸狀 2003 年 8 1 173 陸來料陸類類不類 2004 年降零 15% 3.7% 17% 0% 5% 陸陸 2002 年 11 ~2005 年 5 冷冷不 5 8.7~23.2% 料 8~10% 0% 料來 92 年金力兩力兩劣 (SWOT) 理 4-7 行金金來良理行力料度陸兩劣力不度兩劣來洞易易來陸 55

4-7 兩 SWOT 料來理陸行煉料金金來良勞力廉理行力料度料不力不勞不不易度老率理不良力力不度不良兩來陸量陸量略聯力陸廉陸降識不兩來陸廉羅烈易更降力降不羅屢復 56

兩年來兩易壘聯陸 4-8 不不量說兩度 4-8 兩度陸度 1 2 3 4 5 2002-2003 (1). 201 (2).OECD 率 (3). 聯量 (4). (5). 陸車量易壘易流量 1/3( 3 ) 易易陸聯年 OECD 陸聯老行便力力來率不聯聯力量 Arcelor 2001 年 11 立更略聯 NKK JFE (2003 年 4 ) 2 年率陸兩年陸力不不良 2003 年 57

量 1/4 量 2.15 2001~2003 年量 2/3 來陸北來年度 6 了金度量料良精粒奈說力度力度料來 92 年金力兩立陸陸兩李理車降兩度不烈更陸力流拓兩易陸切陸理兩流 1987 年量了 1980 年陸廉勞力便陸 1992 年陸年 2000 年累陸 171 441 39% 年陸累度來陸 58

陸 1980 年 1990 年陸 1990 年陸來不陸數陸 1991 年 2000 年陸累 171 陸 1991 年 2000 年累陸金 478 4-9 4-9 陸易年度數金數金 1991 237 174 3,446 2,783 1992 264 247 6,430 5,543 1993 9329** 3,168** 10,948 9,965 1994 934 962 6,247 5,395 1995 490 1,093 4,778 5,777 1996 383 1,229 3,184 5,141 1997 8725** 4,334** 3,014 2,814 1998 1284** 2,035** 2,970 2,982 1999 488 1,253 2,499 3,374 2000 840 2,607 3,108 4,042 累 2000 年 22,974 17,102 46,624 47,816 1. 2. ** 數兩例數金料來易兩數 59

陸料陸累陸 7.5% 陸來 48.9% 8.6%8% 陸數陸金 1990 年陸 1995 年年 15% 了 2000 年 29% 陸 34% 例 2000 年便 8200 7500 2 5 金絶流陸陸度 1995 年陸年度陸 0.8% 了 2000 年 9.4% 陸來陸金陸金陸來陸料陸 1995 年陸 1995 年陸不度料陸行 (1990 年 ) 料 (2002 年 ) 金 ( ) 年來陸金度金陸行數 4-10 60

4-10 陸行行 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 料 11.09 10.24 10.75 7.68 4.65 2.10 2.27 7.83 5.64 5.57 4.81 2.74 0.81 1.90 7.57 3.29 1.81 1.64 0.52 2.49 1.17 1.71 5.88 8.65 5.33 11.42 5.88 7.06 12.91 11.86 5.74 8.05 7.91 5.61 5.93 金 5.35 8.10 10.69 9.14 8.34 6.96 9.39 18.13 14.05 19.66 20.19 42.92 45.07 38.95 精 2.29 9.04 2.70 5.70 2.24 4.53 6.45 % 料來陸兩易 2001 年年陸 31 省省 14136 數省金兩龍陸 31 省數省省福省省省省福省省若金省省福省省陸類陸 (). 北料北省北省省糧林省陸六林林省 50 類參靈 61

良北遼寧省金 2 3 金北金 87 林省金 1900 7.1 龍省金 1500 5.8 連 2001 年北料金金金領北 (). 北金流北北陸來了陸 1996~2000 北了來 15 年 1 金來北北數 7 陸 8 省數 2800 北省 2500 北 1700 1500 北零不北省北不北數金便不北數北北省行 (). 1992 年列了 10 年不 62

1990 年龍陸陸 1990 年行不陸金了度更來力不 3 利 140 落 2500 年歷老 1990 年了精精行了 10 年來若說了不不寧行來兩寧更 (). 列車陸列車年福數 2 力力臨陸車 80 年陸了了陸年勞力陸廉勞力切陸陸 63

立陸聯 (). 陸不 1999 年陸略了力度 5 力 5 不便力不念若流遼旅來見路來說 1 力烙流便易陸料陸累 1952 年 2002 年 5 陸料累 2 4,672 金 210.94 39.22% 金 85 2002 年 7 1 陸 11 8 累理 3971 金 19.58 金 63.25 見陸陸 64

(). 料 2002 年 1-5 58.55 19.69% 累歷年 2002 年 5 省金 80.19 38.02% 70.64 金 33.47% 見金福 18.24 8.65% 北 11.87 5.63% 10.38 4.1% 北 (). 行 2002 年 15 金 49.42% 累 2002 年 5 31.52% 金 () 8.2% 7.39%6.46% 料 6.41% 5.07% 金 (). 陸勞力金 1997 年陸陸金旅流行不不 (). 來都都北立立不路流 (). 陸連聯陸連北北北 65

( 六 ). 陸落來陸例落 2002 年兩來年來陸落力理 1. 料零 2002 年 81 1% 不 11% 不福異不福 90% 2. 例 75% 79%75%70% 福 67% 福 10% 4% 不異不 12% 22% 3. 陸例例六 72%65% 福 63 不 43 例 6% 1% 不不 35% 福 30% 26% 13% 24% 例 4. 例 59% 69% 59 48% 福 43% 3 都福 10% 不 25% 35% 福 30% 26% 18% 陸行度 66

5. 金來例 43 例金異 65% 53% 福 40% 24% 金金福都金不金不理不 57% 福 33% 30% 22% 不 38% 陸金 6. 來例 32% 利例 38% 38% 26% 福 23% 不不說陸來不 48% 52% 福 47% 46% 39% 4.1% 0% 福 13% 6% 例落降力零料 81% 75% 陸陸拓行率六見陸陸金陸金領例金行陸陸力來陸都連都 67

異不不來陸不連拓更落立路省立流落 OEM OBM 來陸陸落陸來來不都 68

立陸立論略理論說領 (H.D.) 理論陸 - 識度 0.75() 0.75 識陸領理論參領理論陸 AHP 理論兩理陸 Expert Choice 2000 AHP Expert Choice 2000 C.R.HConsistency Ratio of the HierarchyC.R.H0.1 C.R.H 0.1 行理立陸 69

5-1 理論略領理論 5-1 力都領行 70

不不了不見列說 5-1 年度不不數力數數率行便理劣略兩略異例略略度度理六略料來 (2000) 來 ( ) 理論 71

料說理論論陸來不數例行行流行利益來了略弄立利益略來陸理不略參 Porter1980 力理論參兩來陸理 15 5-2 5-2 1 力 2 力 3 力 72

4 力 5 力 6 度 7 力 8 度度 9 零 / 零料力 10 兩力 11 勵度 12 陸勵度 13 陸金靈度 14 陸度 15 陸度力了劣量力理略參六力行理 14 5-3 5-3 1 力理力 2 行理力 3 理力 4 理力 5 理力 6 理力 73

7 良理力 8 度 9 識度 10 11 度力度 12 良 13 力 14 力略略 Strategy 臘 Strategies 略立行說略參 Porter(1980)Competitive Strategy 臨力量略 ( 5-4) 量兩理 14 略 5-5 5-4Porter 略略類 1. 領略力率 2. 異略異領 3. 略力量異異不 74

5-5 略 1 領力 2 異力 3 略力 4 力 5 理力 6 利利力 7 力 8 力 9 力 10 力 11 異略聯力 12 度度度 13 兩力 14 力類領不不諸類聯度行不例力列力領不 75

陸領 HD 理論龍論理論論陸論立略量參陸度類 / 聯 ( 錄 ) 領 (AD) 立 AD 類 / 聯 (R) 領領理論論 1. 行識力立 2. 識類 / 聯列領 ( 領 ) 12 12 率 100% 參料 5-6 5-6 理理 () () ( 理 ) () 數 2 2 3 4 1 76

兩理 (AHP) 年類不易行 AHP 5 7 陸度量 AHP 律 - 識度 0.75) () 0.75 識度數數陸領理論識度 0.75 理略識度 0.75 5-2 陸識度 0.75 力力力兩力陸度識度 0.75 力理力行理力理力理力度識度力略識度 0.75 領力力理力力力 77

陸略力力力兩數量兩力例陸度力力理力練行理力略靈力理力力力理力理力度理靈力識度理識力利良理力領力率力力力力力 5-2 陸 AHP AHP 理論 Expert Choice 2000 立了陸 AHP 5-3 陸 KSF 量略量力力力兩力陸度 78

力理力行理力理力理力度識度力略領力力理力力力 5-3 陸 AHP AHP 5-2 5-3 立 AHP 錄 AHP 陸 Thomas L.Saaty(1980) 度 1357 絶 9 度 2468 79

陸陸理 27 22 率 81% 參料 5-7 5-7AHP 料類年數歷數年數數 21~30 0 () 22 1~5 年 0 13 31~40 7 () 0 5~10 年 3 9 41~50 12 0 10~20 年 10 51 3 20 年 Expert Choice 2000 AHP Expert Choice 2000 C.R.HConsistency Ratio of the Hierarchy C.R.H0.1 20 C.R.H0.1 AHP 兩陸量量略度 5-4 80

5-4 量量量量 AHP 度 5-5 5-5 AHP 度 5-6 81

5-6 略 AHP 度 5-7 5-7 略量量度例數量 5-8 82

5-8 陸 83

六論論領 (HD)(AHP) 兩理論兩 (Expert Choice 2000) 陸列論陸略略數陸了略略力力力領力率力力良理力力兩數量 84

力兩力例力陸度力力理力理力度理靈力識度理識力利數量良理理力力力行理力略靈力力理力練力力力理力略力陸立兩數量力年年年年年兩 85

陸數不論不數令 6-1 陸力若邏論臨略力行率陸行度力力理力不理論識流力 86

理力理力陸理力理力陸臨陸行不易金不不金理行不便省率不理更度識度度陸度理靈力理識良力不易不不度年來金暴不陸力勞勞識不易金臨不利陸了論陸略陸略 87

不度立立切陸諸論見數行了類領不不諸類聯度行不例力列力領不領理論論立邏度識量異 88

參北陸北力北北北略年度行陸略易領立理論路行行理論理理論立理論理立力理論林陸略度理論林北見 89

林度度理論聯例立理論理歷北老理立金論陸易略例立理論隆領理論兩易行例立理論隆陸省例理論陸立論金劉率 90

2002 陸立例立理論年兩來老陸兩利流理龍行北聯龍北金龍領北龍領北金龍福來領年論年龍理領年論年 2001 兩論 12 7 3 pp.116-141 例立理論陸例理論力例理理論 91

陸立理論兩金北料兩類論兩北劉烈易易立理論劉行力理例論省行 pp.122 126 理論盧聯類神路立理論領都行理論陸度論北金 92

Azis, I. J. 1990. Analytic hierarchy process in the benefit-cost frame worka post-evaluation of the Traus-Sumatra, highway project Euopean. Journal of operational research, vol.148pp.38-48. Daniel, D.R. 1961. Management informayion crisi. Harvard Business Review pp.111-121. Graham, J. L. & Lam, N. M. 2003 The Chinese negotiation. Harvard Business Review, Octoberpp.82-91. Kenneth, L. & Geoffrey, L. 2003 The great transition. Harvard Business Review, Octoberpp.70-81. 93

Tillett, B.B. 1989. Authority control in the online environment. New York Haworth Press. Zeng, M. & Williamson, P.J. 2003. The hidden dragons. Harvard Business Review, Octoberpp.92-103. 94

年兩料年洞力年領年行年立行年李龍年兩料年兩 2003http://www.trade.gov.tw/2003 年 12 14 95

年兩料年陸年流說隆年年年兩年 96

97 錄 AHP 理論流不了立 AHP 行 A 1,A 2,.A n W 1,W 2,.W n 來立 Pairwise Comparison Matrix 列例 A i A j 度 a ij A 1,A 2,.A n Aa ij 若 W 1,W 2,.W n Aa ij Saaty, 1980 [ ] = = n n n n n n n W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W A A / / / / / / / / / A A A a A A 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 n 2 1 ij 2 1 L M M M M L L M L 1,2,...n j, i W, a 1 a, a 2 1 ij ji ij = = = = n j i W W W W W M A 理狀都不理狀理論立 = n 2 1 n 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 n 2 1 2 1 W W W n W W W / / / / / / / / / A A A A M M L M M M M L L M L n n n n n n n W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W A A A W n W

AWnW n A eigenvalue W A 量 eigenvector AnIW0 W0 W A 量 n A (). A 數 a ij 1/ a ji (). A a ij 1/ a ji Positive Reciprocal Matrix (). A Rank 1 rank(a)1 列列數 i i1,2, n 零零零 max (). A max 量都 (). A n TraceAn n n λ1 = Trace(A) = n i= 1 max n 理 A 1,A 2,.A n 量 W A max 量行 a ij 不精理率 W i /W j 理 W a i ij (aij = W 98 j ' Wi ) ' W j

W a ij 量不 n max 理 AW max W A 不 max n 兩異度量利 max n 數來不 Saaty, 1991 A a jk a ik /a ij 立列都列數 A (rank) 1 量 i i1,2, n n 不 0 i = Trace(A) = n, λmax = n maxn = λ i 1 ij 0 a ij W i /W j 利 (Consistency Index, C. I.) 來量度 λmax n C.I. = n 1 若 C.I.0 C.I.0 不 Saaty 1991 率 (Consistency Ratio, C..) C.I C.R. = 0.1 度理 R.I. R.I 說 AHP 流列更列列見識臨列聯見力 (group brainstorming) (Delphi method) 99

立立度度立度度 (1989) 立 (). (). 量 (). 不兩 (Complete Hierarchy) 兩連不 (Incomplete Hierarchy) 兩不都連立兩力兩兩更度度 ( 錄 1-1) 錄 1-1 度 A B 度說 A B A B 100

A B A 烈 A 凌 B 數兩數列數數 B A 料來 : Thomas, L. Saaty (1980) The Analytic Hierarchy Process 立立 n 行兩兩 C(n,2)=n(n-1)/2 aij 錄 1-2 數數 1 A 錄 1-2 A B C A 1 2 3 B 1/2 1 2 C 1/3 1/2 1 料來理令 aij=wi/wj W1,W2,,Wn 數兩 : 1. 2. 若精數律 101

( 六 ). 量 (Eigenvalue Vector) (Maximized Eigenvalue) 了立立利數量 1. 量 Saaty(1982) (1).ANC (Average of Normalized Columns) 行量行列列數 (2).NRA (Normalization of the Row Average) 列量列 (3).NGM (Normalization of the Geometric of the Rows) 列量列數例 1 1/ 2 1/ 3 2 1 1/ 2 3 2 1 3 3 3 6 1.82 / 3.37 0.54 1 1/ 3.37 0.3 0.55 / 3.37 0.163 1/ 6 量 (Eigenvalue Vector) 量 (Priority Vector) (4). 行量數行數 NGM 2. max 說 A 量 W 量 W W 量量 W 量數 ( 數 n) 102

例 max 1 2 3 0.54 1.629 Q A W = 1/ 2 1 2 0.3 0.896 = 1 / 3 1/ 2 1 0.163 0.493 n 1 ( AW ) i 1 1.629 0.896 0.493 λ = = ( + + ) n W 3 0.54 0.3 0.163 max = i= 1 i 3.01 (). (Consistency Index, C.I.) 率 (Consistency Ratio, C..): C.I.(consistency index) 率 C.R.(consistency ratio) aij 量 max 量 max n 量 (max-n)/(n-1)(consistency index) AHP 來量 C.I.=( max-n)/(n-1) Saaty, 1980 C.I. R.I.(random index) 數利錄 1-3 率利來量 (Random index) R. I.Saaty 數錄 1-3 錄 1-3 n N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 R.I. 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.51 料來 : Thomas, L. Saaty (1980) The Analytic Hierarchy Process (). 量 103

若數量量 C.R.H.(Consistency Ratio of the Hierarchy) (C.I.H.)(R.I.H.) 數 C.I.H. 量 () C.I. 例 C.I.H.W C.I. [ w, w,,, w ] 1 2 n X C.I. 1 C. I. 2,, C. I. n 理 R.I.H. 量 () R.I. C.R.H.C.I.H / R.I.H. 若 C.R.H. 0.1 104

錄陸 (KSF) 論陸不料料列不理劉 ( 聯 0955419558) 105

陸略數參類 / 聯陸參類列參類 / 聯不理類 / 聯 1. 力 2. 力 3. 力 4. 力 5. 力流立 6. 度力 7. 力兩數量 8. 度度類數量 9. 零 / 零料力度 106

10. 兩力例 11. 勵度便 12. 陸勵度 13. 陸金靈度金便利 14. 陸度力 15. 陸度易列理來列類 / 聯 1. 力理力練 2. 行理力略靈力 3. 理力力力 4. 理力力 5. 理力理力 6. 理力度利力 7. 良理力料 107

8. 度理靈力 9. 識度理識 10. 11. 度力度 12. 良 13. 力金力 14. 力數量利數量良理列理來列略類 / 聯略 1. 領力率力 2. 異力異力 3. 略力利 108

4. 力良 5. 理力 6. 利利力 7. 力量不力 8. 力力 9. 力 10. 力力 11. 異略聯力 12. 度度度 13. 兩力兩 14. 力 APEC 北易略列理來列 109

錄 AHP 陸 (KSF) (AHP) 勞論 Analytic Hierarchy Process 陸度來了料不若不不吝見理劉 ( 聯 0955419558) 110

說利來陸來行兩兩陸略力力力兩數量兩力例陸度力力理力練行理力略靈力理力力力理力理力度理靈力識度理識力利良理力領力率力力力力力 111

例說度度量度度列說例行力力兩若力陸度度欄例力陸度度度力陸度度 112

若陸度力度欄例陸度力度度力陸度度若陸度力度例度力陸度度兩異度欄兩欄 113

參列兩兩略兩兩力力力力力 114 略略見兩兩力力力兩力陸度兩兩力力兩力陸度力

力力力力兩力兩力陸度力理力行理力理力理力度識度力兩兩力理力力理力力理力力理力力理力力理力兩力陸度陸度行理力理力理力度識度力 115

行理力行理力行理力行理力行理力理力理力理力理力理力理力理力度度識度理力理力度識度力理力度識度力度識度力識度力力 116

略領力力理力力力兩兩領力力領理力力領力力領力力理力力力力力力理力力理力力力力 117

料年歷年年年年年 118