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1 强 Narasimhan 1995 supply-demand theory assimilationism Portes & Borocz 1989 爲幷産 push and pull theory 衆 (Lee, 1966) (Bagne, 1969) Myrdal, 1969:2139 Trewartha, 1969 爲况爲爲爲産 % % % % 麽麽 (2002 ) %

2 % 爲 2000 爲爲 1 2 爲爲 20 爲麽况爲 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 産 2

3 30% % 麽却况况爲麽 % 20% % 5000 爲麽 Jenkins Jenkins 却 3

4 noneconomic factors Doshchitsin,-Yu.-P. & Lapin,-N.-N % 6 7 爲 34-35% 麽麽 % 7.0% 66.4% 麽爲麽爲强 Sig * ** *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) E. Ravenstien 幷 2000 爲 61.1% 爲 38.9% 2002 爲 63.2% 爲 36.8% 却 5 Sig..191**

5 .136* *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) % 6 Sig **** *** **** ***p<0.001 ****p< (2-tailed) 4 麽 7 幷 7 # 减 # 况却况况况况

6 况 9 况 9.5% 却 19.7% 况况况况 95% 爲産爲况幷

7 爲麽踪爲够 80 産爲况幷爲 1 爲幷爲够够 ABC A B C 麽

8 爲幷爲爲爲 2 爲衆却决幷爲爲幷却迹爲爲

9 % 决 % 决却 life cycle 却够爲綫够爲 3 况爲况 2002 % 麽 2002 %

10 % 麽 2002 % 爲 6.7% 爲够够况 life cycle 却爲爲 4 Kusuda,-Kyu Kusuda, 爲麽爲强却爲麽爲爲爲却幷却爲 10

11 爲産 Hamilton, 1985 爲况爲爲爲爲爲减幷爲爲决决爲决况幷 2 爲爲産爲麽爲麽爲爲 Sig ** 决.141*

12 3.181** * *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) 够爲况爲况爲 118 L 18 L 爲爲 L 114 G 22 厨够 128 M 24 M M 幷 M 爲爲够 Wu, H 40 H H H 爲 H 麽爲 89.7% 12

13 % 23.3% % 3 82% % % 爲够 3 産爲爲麽麽爲麽爲麽决 1 爲决 6 爲 Sig. A.181** B.278**** C.167** D.243**** E.163** F.162** G.174** **p<0.01 ****p< (2-tailed) A. 爲却决强 B. 况幷 19 却 C. 19 强 13

14 90 D E F G 够强却爲爲爲爲强爲却 life cycle 幷却産爲爲爲爲 14

15 爲强强 Bagne, D.J. Principles of Demography, New York, Doshchitsin,-Yu.-P. & Lapin,-N.-N.1995 Forced Migration in a Large Industrial City of Siberia Sotsiologicheskie-Issledovaniya, 9 (Total Volume 22), Hamilton,-Gary-G Temporary Migration and the Institutionalization of Strategy International-Journal-of-Intercultural-Relations 4(Total Volume 9), Jenkins, J. Craig 1977 Push/Pull in Recent Mexican Migration to the U.S. International-Migration-Review 2, summer, (Total Volume 11), Kusuda,-Kyu 1971 Surplus Population and Mobility of Labor Developing-Economies, 2, Jun, (Total Volume 9), , Japan. Lee, Everett S. : A Theory of Migration Demography 1966(3), 54, Myrdal, G. Asian Drama, Vol. III, Narasimhan,-S Labour Out-Migration to Cities: Search for an Appropriate Theory Man-and-Development 1, Mar, (Total Volume 17) Portes,-Alejandro; Borocz,-Jozsef 1989 Contemporary Immigration: Theoretical Perspectives on Its Determinants and Modes of Incorporation International-Migration-Review 3, fall, (Total Volume 11) Trewartha, T.J. Mobility and Migration, A Geography of Population: Word Patterns, John Willey, New York, Wu,-T.-S A Framework for the Study of Urban Adaptation in the Process of Rural Migration National-Taiwan-University-Journal-of-Sociology 7, Apr, : , : :

90年代中期以?中?社??构演?的新??

90年代中期以?中?社??构演?的新?? 90 1 强迹 20 80 90 况却 80 90 况 90 80 爲 90 80 90 况 90 産 90 衆却爲 90 90 1 1994 1998 [1] 况 90 80 80 况 80 衆 80 幷 90 7% 7% 2 5% 衆却况爲爲况迹 1997 GDP 8.8% 爲 1.1% 1998 GDP 7.8% 0.5% 1999 GDP 7.1% 0.89% 2000