第19章

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寅财弘
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1 19 ** ** ** ** ** ** **** ** ** **** ** ** ** **

2 % 2.5% % % % 2.6% % 1.6% % (economic growth) 1

3 ( ) OECD

4 CPI 0.01 GNP 9 7, , , 指標經濟民間政府固定資本形年別成長率消費消費成輸出輸入 CPI 失業率 2000 年年年單位 :%

5 Modern Economic Growth Theory (Initial Income Level) Particular Characteristics 4

6 Robert M. Solow (spillover effect) 5

7 BOX (multifactor productivity M.F.P.) ( ) (GDP); (total output) : ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) ; ( )? 89 6

8 項目別八十九年與上年比較說明 ( 基期 : 八十五 =100) 工業及服務業多因素生產力係指實質國內生多因工業產毛額, 相對於就業者工時及實素生製造業質固定資本存量兩項生產因素產力服務業之比率固定工業及服務業固定資本生產力係指實質國內資本工業生產毛額, 相對於實質固定資本生產製造業存量淨額之比率力服務業工業及服務業勞動生產力係指實質國內生產勞動工業毛額, 相對於就業者工時之比生產率製造業力服務業 (%) 工業及服務業技術進步工業八十九年年增率八十八年年增率率製造業服務業資料來源 : 行政院主計處 ( 技術進步率係指生產總值成長率扣除加權後就業者工時實質固定資本存量能源投入值原材料投入及企業服務投入值成長率之餘額 Adam Smith Robert M. Solow 7

9 Simon Kuznets Simon Kuznets Simon Kuznets 1991 Lucas Y = F( K, L, N; A) (19.1) K L N A ( ) Capital Stock 8

10 n --(K11, K12, K13 K1n) m n m (K1, K2,, Kn) (present value) X t A X =A/(1+r)t r n A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 A X = + A + A ( 1+ r) 2 (1 + r) 3 (1 + r) 4 (1 + r) (1 + r + A + A ) (homogeneous) L=aP L P 5 9

11 ( ) ( ) ( ) (research and development, R&D)

12 19.3 (Malthus) Essay on the Principle of Population,1798 (the Dismal Science) (iron law of wage) * W * W N N = g( W ) > 0 (19.2) W = h(n), h ( N) < 0 (19.3) P * W 19-3 N 0 * N W = g( W ) > 0 N * W 11

14 BOX /3 1/

15 19.4 (Harrod-Domar Model) Harrod Domar 1940 Harrod Domar Harrod-Domar Model 1. (S) (Y) S = sy (19.4) 2. (K) I= K (19.5) 3. ( ) 4. (K) (Y) K/Y=k (19.6) K/ Y= k 5. (Leontief production function) 14

16 K N Y = min{, }, k>0, b>0 (19.7) k b a b 6. S=I (19.8) K Y = k dy 1 dk = = 1 I (19.9) dt a dt k (19.4) S=sY=I dy 1 di = (19.10) dt s dt (19.9) (19.10) dy I 1 di = = (19.11) dt k s dt s k ( ) 1 Y dy dt = 1 sy d( sy ) dt = 1 S ds dt 1 = I di dt = s k s k s s k k (warranted rate of growth) Y Y = b 1 dy dn = 1 = n Y dt N dt n n (natural rate of growth) (efficiency labor) n + λ 1 Y dy dt = n + λ (19.13) 15

17 Harrod-Domar Model Harrod-Domar Model (Knife-Edge) 19.5 Neoclassical Growth Model Harrod Domar Robert M. Solow Harrod Domar neoclassical growth model 16

18 Harrod-Domar Model 1987 Harrod-Domar Model C-D Harrod-Domar Model Y = F( N, K) Y k y = = F(,1) = f ( k) (19.14) N N y k f > 0, f < 0 ( ) ln k = ln K ln N 17

19 1 k dk dt 1 dk 1 dn = (19.15) K dt N dt 1 dk dn = 1 = n K dt N dt (19.16) (I=S) 1 K dk dt = I = S = sy (19.17) (19.16) (19.17) 1 K dk dt = S K = sy K = sy k 1 = N dn dt = n (19.18) (19.18) n y = k (19.19) s 19-4 n * 19-4 y = f ( k) = k k s * y Y=C+I=C+S * * * * * c = y s = y sy = (1 s)y * (19.20) n k1 f ( k) > k s 18

20 sf ( k) S I 1 dk n < = = = (19.21) k K K K dt * k k 1 Y dy dt = T + dk a K + b dn N (19.22) T T (19.22) 19.6 Endogenous Growth Theory 80 Romer Lucas 19

21 OECD Romer Lucas Romer spillover effect Lucas Lucas Lucas Romer endogenous growth theory R&D Lucas Rebelo Romer Aghion Howitt 20

22 Y F K, hl Y K h L Y Y 3 E 3 F 3 (K 3, h 3 L) F 2 (K 2, h 2 L) Y 2 E 2 F 1 (K 1, h 1 L) Y 1 E 1 0 K 1 K 2 K3 K h1 h2 h3 K1 K2 K3 Y1 Y2 Y3 F1 F2 F3 K1 K2 K3 Y1 Y2 Y3 0Y1>Y1Y2>Y2Y3 21

23 BOX 200 OECD TU e 22

24 TU Q MU TU e TU 0 Q MU 0 Q 19-6 BOX

25 19.7 Rostow Rostow Rostow Rostow

26 (immiserizing growth) (immiserizing growth) %

27 3. 4. BOX IQ

28 BOX 1985 $275 (extreme poverty) $ % (9%?) A B 27

經濟學總複習壹 1. Business cycle (1) recessiondepression recoveryprosperity 18-1 Y A. B. C. D. 414

經濟學總複習壹 1. Business cycle (1) recessiondepression recoveryprosperity 18-1 Y A. B. C. D. 414 18 經濟學總複習壹 1. Business cycle (1) recessiondepression recoveryprosperity 18-1 Y 0 18-1 A. B. C. D. 414 18 景 (2) A. B. supply shock 2. Monitoring Indicator (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 3. (1) Leading Indicators