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1 学校编码 :10384 分类号密级学号 : UDC 硕士学位论文九安医疗与新华医疗投资价值对比分析 A Coparison Ananysis of Investment Values for Andon Medical and Shinva medical 陈玲指导教师姓名 : 吴世农教授专业名称 : 工商管理 (MBA) 论文提交日期 : 年 4 月论文答辩时间 : 2014 年 5 月学位授予日期 : 2014 年月 2014 年 5 月答辩委员会主席 : 评阅人 :

medical 陈玲指导教师姓名 : 吴世农教授专业名称 : 工商管理 (MBA) 论文提交日期 : 2 0 1 4 年

3 厦门大学学位论文原创性声明本人呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下, 独立完成的研究成果本人在论文写作中参考其他个人或集体已经发表的研究成果, 均在文中以适当方式明确标明, 并符合法律规范和厦门大学研究生学术活动规范 ( 试行 ) 另外, 该学位论文为 ( ) 课题 ( 组 ) 的研究成果, 获得 ( ) 课题 ( 组 ) 经费或实验室的资助, 在 ( ) 实验室完成 ( 请在以上括号内填写课题或课题组负责人或实验室名称, 未有此项声明内容的, 可以不作特别声明 ) 声明人 ( 签名 ): 年月日

行 ) 另外, 该学位论文为 ( ) 课题 ( 组 ) 的研究成果, 获得 ( ) 课题 ( 组 ) 经费或实验室的资助, 在 ( ) 实验室完成 ( 请

5 厦门大学学位论文著作权使用声明本人同意厦门大学根据中华人民共和国学位条例暂行实施办法等规定保留和使用此学位论文, 并向主管部门或其指定机构送交学位论文 ( 包括纸质版和电子版 ), 允许学位论文进入厦门大学图书馆及其数据库被查阅借阅本人同意厦门大学将学位论文加入全国博士硕士学位论文共建单位数据库进行检索, 将学位论文的标题和摘要汇编出版, 采用影印缩印或者其它方式合理复制学位论文本学位论文属于 : ( )1. 经厦门大学保密委员会审查核定的保密学位论文, 于年月日解密, 解密后适用上述授权 ( )2. 不保密, 适用上述授权 ( 请在以上相应括号内打或填上相应内容保密学位论文应是已经厦门大学保密委员会审定过的学位论文, 未经厦门大学保密委员会审定的学位论文均为公开学位论文此声明栏不填写的, 默认为公开学位论文, 均适用上述授权 ) 声明人 ( 签名 ): 年月日

合理复制学位论文本学位论文属于 : ( )1. 经厦门大学保密委员会审查核定的保密学位论文, 于年月日解密, 解密后适用上述授权 ( )2.

7 摘要摘要 2013 年的 A 股市场, 可谓是冰火两重天, 反映中国宏观经济形势的蓝筹股没有起色, 上交所的成交量屡低于深交所已成常态, 大盘股的市盈率银行股破净为上交所成交清淡提供注脚虽然上证综指全年回落 6.75%, 但有接近 70% 的上市公司市值却出现增长, 有 72% 的行业上市公司市值实现增长, 呈现出明显的结构性牛市特征, 这些行业分别是高科技互联网文化消费医药环保等在这样的背景下, 作为一名个人投资者, 我们应该如何选择投资标的, 如何判断上市公司股票的投资价值呢? 遵循自上而下的选股策略, 秉承价值投资理念, 本文选取了医疗器械板块的二家上市公司九安医疗和新华医疗, 收集了公司年财务及经营数据, 运用公司自由现金流量折现模型和市盈率模型, 对二家公司的股价进行估值, 力图为投资者的投资决策提供客观科学合理的依据本文共分为六章, 第一章提出论文的研究背景研究的主要问题和意义第二章介绍了我国医疗器械行业的发展现状和趋势, 以及发展中存在的主要问题, 以期投资者对医疗器械行业的整体状况有一个基本的了解第三章是对上市公司的商业模式核心竞争力和市场前景分析第四章进行历史财务数据分析, 并对主要经营财务数据进行预测, 全面认识九安医疗和新华医疗第五章分别采用自由现金流折现法和市盈率法对二家公司进行估值, 估算出二家公司的合理价格区间, 预测结果及给出启示第六章归纳研究的主要结论, 包括行业分析结论企业分析结论和估值结论, 并根据估值结果给出对二家公司的投资建议本文经过分析, 认为九安医疗的股价脱离公司实际的财务业绩, 股价泡沫严重, 而新华医疗的成长性和业绩都稳定可期, 公司目前股价被低估, 建议买入并持有同时作者提出几点投资建议 :1 在当前的宏观经济背景下, 我们推荐自上而下的选股策略, 首先挑选出增长明确空间广阔的行业 2 选定行业之后, 再去行业中挑选业绩兑现确定, 未来成长可期的优质个股关键词 : 医疗产业 ; 股票估值 ; 自由现金流量 I

8 Abstract Abstract 2013 A stock market, it is Rainbow Night, reflect the Chinese macroeconomic situation of the blue chip is no improvement, the SSE trading volume has less than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has become the norm, the stock market price earnings ratio, banking stocks breaking the net for the SSE traded light to provide a footnote. Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 6.75% year, but nearly 70% of the market value of listing Corporation has increased, there are 72% industry market value of listing Corporation to achieve growth, showing a structural bull market characteristics, these industries are high-tech, Internet, culture, consumption, medicine, environmental protection. In this context, as an individual investor, how should we choose investment targets, how to determine the listing Corporation's stock investment value? Following the top-down selection strategy, receives the value investment idea, this paper selects the medical section of the two listing Corporation -- Andon Medical and Shinva Medical, collect the company from 2008 to 2012 financial and operating data, using the discount free cash flow model and price earnings ratio model, the valuation of the two company's stock price, in order to provide objective, scientific, rational basis for investors to make investment decision. This paper is divided into six chapters, the main problems and the significance of research background, the first chapter of this paper. The second chapter introduces the development status and trend of China's medical industry, the main problems and the development of the overall situation, in order to investors in the medical device industry to have a basic understanding of the. The third chapter is the analysis of the listing Corporation's business model, core competence and market prospect. The fourth chapter analyzes the historical financial data, and carries on the forecast to the main business of financial data, a comprehensive understanding of Andon Medical and Shinva Medical. The fifth chapter uses the discounted free cash flow and earnings of the valuation method of two companies, two companies estimate the reasonable price interval, and the valuation method of error prompt. The main conclusions of the sixth chapter research conclusion, including industry, business analysis and valuation conclusion, and according to the valuation results are given for two companies investment advice. II

75% year, but nearly 70% of the market value of listing Corporation has increased, there are 72% industry market value of listing Corporation to achieve growth, showing a structural bull market

9 九安医疗与新华医疗投资价值对比分析 After analysis, think that Andon Medical shares from the company actual financial performance, stock price bubble serious, and Shinva Medical growth and performance is stable, the current stock price is undervalued, buy and hold. At the same time, the author put forward some investment advice: in the current macro-economic background, we recommend the top-down selection strategies, first select the growth of clear, broad space industry. After the selected sectors, to determine the selection of cash performance in the industry, the future development of high-quality stocks. Keywords: Medical industry ;Stock valuations; FCF III

At the same time, the author put forward some investment advice: in the current macro-economic background, we recommend the top-down selection strategies, first

10 目录目录第一章研究概述 1 第一节研究背景 1 第二节研究的主要问题和意义 4 第三节研究框架与说明 6 第二章我国医疗器械行业发展现状和趋势 8 第一节我国医疗器械行业发展现状 8 一行业发展较为迅速, 市场规模全球第二 8 二市场需求巨大, 前景乐观 9 三国家政策大力倾斜和扶持, 利好频现 10 四医疗器械基层市场被看好 11 五家用医疗器械处于发展初期, 增量较快 12 六智能便携式医疗器械及电子商务成为创新潮流 13 第二节我国医疗器械行业发展趋势 14 一国产高端医疗器械有望逆袭 14 二医疗器械产业结构有望大幅提升 15 三本土企业加快海外并购步伐 15 四中国可穿戴医疗设备在全球独领风骚 16 第三节我国医疗器械行业发展中存在的主要问题 16 一自主创新的动力不足, 中低端占据主体地位, 产品附加值低 16 二多主体协同创新合作机制仍存问题 17 三市场环境问题 18 第三章九安与新华的商业模式核心竞争力和市场前景分析 19 第一节九安与新华的发展历史和现状 19 一九安医疗 19 二新华医疗 20 第二节九安与新华的商业模式分析 21 IV

14 一国产高端医疗器械有望逆袭 14 二医疗器械产业结构有望大幅提升 15 三本土企业加快海外并购步伐 15 四中国可穿戴医疗设备在全球独领风骚 16 第三节我国医疗器械行业发展中存在的主要问题 16 一自主创新的动力不足, 中

11 九安医疗与新华医疗投资价值对比分析一九安医疗 21 二新华医疗 24 第三节九安与新华的核心竞争力分析 28 一九安医疗 28 二新华医疗 30 第四节九安与新华的市场前景预测 33 一行业预测 33 二九安医疗 33 三新华医疗 35 第四章九安与新华的财务分析与预测 37 第一节九安与新华的财务比率分析 37 一盈利能力 37 二经营效率 39 三偿债能力 41 四获取现金能力 43 五成长能力 45 六价值创造能力 47 七财务分析主要结论 49 第二节九安与新华的结构分析 50 一资产结构分析 50 二费用结构分析 52 三现金流量结构分析 55 第三节九安与新华的主要经营财务数据预测 57 一九安医疗 57 二新华医疗 64 第五章九安与新华公司估值分析过程 72 第一节公司价值估值模型的选择 72 一现金流量折现模型 72 二相对价值模型 73 V

力 43 五成长能力 45 六价值创造能力 47 七财务分析主要结论 49 第二节九安与新华的结构分析 50 一资产结构分析 50 二费用结构分析 52 三现金流量结构分析 55 第三节九安与新华

12 目录第二节主要指标的假设判定 74 一无风险收益率 75 二风险价格 75 三贝他值 76 四债务资本成本 77 五加权平均资本成本 77 六永续增长率 78 第三节公司自由现金流量折现模型 78 一九安医疗估值结果 78 二新华医疗估值结果 80 第四节市盈率模型 82 一同行业公司的市盈率均值 82 二九安医疗 PE 估值 83 三新华医疗 PE 估值 83 第五节预测结果及其启示 84 第六章主要结论与建议 85 第一节主要结论 85 第二节投资建议 85 主要参考文献 87 致谢 89 VI

果 80 第四节市盈率模型 82 一同行业公司的市盈率均值 82 二九安医疗 PE 估值 83 三新华医疗 PE 估值 83 第五节

13 CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 Introduction Research Background The Main Problems and The Significance of The Study Research Framework and Description 6 2 Development of China's medical device industry status and trends8 2.1 Development Status of China s medical device industy The Rapid Development of Industry, The Market Size of The Global Second Huge Market Demand, Prospects The National Policy to Tilt and Support, Good Frequency Grassroots Medical Device Market Valued Home Medical Equipment in the Early Stages of Development, Incremental Faster Intelligent Portable Medical Devices and Electronic Commerce Become Innovation Development Trend of China s medical device industy The Domestic High-end Medical Equipment Is Expected to "Counterattack" The Structure of Medical Device Industry Is Expected to Significantly Enhance Local Enterprises to Speed up The Overseas M & A Chinese Wearable Medical Equipment in the Global Agenda The main problem of China s medical device industy in the Development Lack of Motivation of Independent Innovation, In the Low-end to Occupy the Main Position, Products with Low Added Value Collaborative Innovation Cooperation Mechanism in Multi Agent Is Still Existing Problems The Market Environment Problems 18 VII

1.2 Huge Market Demand, Prospects 9 2.1.3 The National Policy to Tilt and Support, Good Frequency 10 2.1.4 Grassroots Medical Device Market Valued 11 2.1.5 Home Medical Equipment in the Early Stages of Development, Incremental Faster 12 2.

14 九安医疗与新华医疗投资价值对比分析 3 Analysis of Andon and Shinva Business Model, Core Competence and Market Prospect Andon and Shinva history and current development of Andon Medical Shinva Medical Analysis of Andon and Shinva business model Andon Medical Shinva Medical Analysis of Andon and Shinva core competitiveness Andon Medical Shinva Medical Prediction of Andon and Shinva market prospects Industry Forecast Andon Medical Shinva Medical 35 4 Andon and Shinva Financial Analysis and Forecast Financial Ratio Analysis Profitability Operating Efficiency Debt Paying Ability The Ability to Obtain Cash Growth Ability The Ability to Create Value Financial Analysis of the Main Conclusion Structural Analysis Asset Structure Analysis The Cost Structure Analysis Analysis of Cash Flow Structure Mainly Engaged in Predicting Financial Data Andon Medical Shinva Medical 64 5 Andon and Shinva Company ValuationAnalysis Process The Valuation of the Company Value Model Selection 72 VIII

3.2 Shinva Medical 30 3.4 Prediction of Andon and Shinva market prospects 33 3.4.1 Industry Forecast 33 3.4.2 Andon Medical 33 3.4.3 Shinva Medical 35 4 Andon and Shinva Financial Analysis and Forecast 37 4.

15 CONTENTS Discounted Cash Flow Model Relative Value Model Main Indicators of Assumptions Determine Risk Free Rate of Return The Price of Risk Beta Value Debt Capital Cost The Weighted Average Cost of Capital Sustainable Growth Rate Free Cash Flow Model Andon Medical Valuation Results Shinva Medical Valuation Results Price Earnings Ratio Model Companies of The Same Industry Earnings Mean Andon Medical PE Valuation Shinva Medical PE Valuation The Forecasting Results and The Enlightenment 84 6 the Main Conclusions and Suggestions the Main Cinclusion Investment Advice 85 References 87 Acknowledgements 89 IX

4 Price Earnings Ratio Model 82 5.4.1 Companies of The Same Industry Earnings Mean 82 5.4.2 Andon Medical PE Valuation 83 5.4.3 Shinva Medical PE Valuation 83 5.

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