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亵绥潘
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1 - 例 ****** 年來度不利度異料利料若老 139~171% 狀 32~235% 行流理理行流理理理 1

2 年來罹例年累 (The Promotion of Health) (The Prevention of Illness) 復 (The Restoration of The Sick) 療念 (2006) 療復狀狀念念識行年年來陸年來 (Genetically Modified Foods ) 降量利力來度不利度不不不不不行略率不力浪不率利 (choice experiment) 異 (willingness to pay WTP) 參不異行略不行略 2

3 . 度料度度 Hoban(1998) 82% 67% 67% 更 (2004) 量力利參 Boccaletti and Moro(2000) 量 6% 10% Lusk et al.(2001) (14 ) 0.01 Bukenya and Wright(2007) 拉 0.39 () West et al.(2002) (398ml) 0.66 ( 例 67%) (180ml) 0.88 ( 例 63%) 3.17 ( 例 24%) Burton and Pearse(2002) 降 20% 度 (285ml) 0.83 Lusk(2003) β 蘿金 0.93 (2006) β 蘿例 27.39% 良降烈 (Rousu et al., 2002; Li et al., 2004; Lusk et al., 2004) Rousu et al. (2002) (expected utility model) 理論利 (auction) 35% 若降 17~29% Rousu et al. (2002) (third-party group) 若 11% Rousu et al. (2002) 陸 Li et al. (2004) Spokane() 料 Lusk et al. (2004) 類 3

4 類類利度 () ( 降 ) 度 Lusk et al.(2004) 識度不易識度 (Li et al., 2004) 行略 Huffman et al. (2004) 不不來不度 Lusk et al. (2004) 類不類. 理論 Cook and Graham(1977) 理論不異 ( U G ) ( U B ) 兩 X (numeraire goods)z 不率 π (I) 率 I [-, ] I I π >0 率 a G 度 a G -, a B 度 a B -, a G (a B) ( ) 度 du du G B ( X, Z ag) da G ( X, Z ab) da B (1) (2)

5 數 X, Z ( ) ( G) ( π ( )) ( B) max, 1, EU = π I U X Z a + I U X Z a (3) G st.. M = px+ Z (4) M 狀數 (,, ) = π ( ) (, ) + ( 1 π ( )) (, ) EV p I M I V M p a I V M p a G G B B (a G a B) 度 G { π ( I ) V ( M, p a ) 1- π ( I) V ( M, p a )} G G B B EV + = a a = π, > 0 ( I) V ( M p ag ) Ga G G B { π ( I ) V ( M, p a ) 1- π ( I) V ( M, p a ) G G B B } EV + = a a = 1- π ( I) V ( M, p a ) > 0 B Ba B B I (5) 1 EV π ( I) V ( M, p a ) + ( 1- π ( I) ) V ( M, p a ) G G B B = I I π ( I) VG ( M, p ag) + 1- π ( I) VB ( M, p ab) = > 0 I (8) (8) a G a B 度 1 讀 (Lusk et al., 2004) B (5) (6) (7) 5

6 EV I a G EV I a B ( I ) VG ( M, p ag) ( 1- π ( I) ) VB ( M, p ab) π + = I a ( M p ag ) = π V, > 0 GaG G ( I ) VG ( M, p ag) ( 1- π ( I) ) VB ( M, p ab) π + = I a ( M p ab ) = - π V, < 0 BaG B (9) (10) 論 (a G ) 不 () (a B ) 利行 (McFadden 1973) 理論 (random utility) 理論兩數理論 n 數 U n = V(X nk, I,,M ) + e n = V n + e n (11) U n n X nk n ( k=1,,k) I M V n 數 e n 量 X nk 數 K U = θ X + δ X I + e n k nk s ns n k= 1 (12) 不數 Z w (w=1,,w) K K W W U = θ X + η X Z + δ X I + κ IX Z + e n k nk kw nk w s ns w s w n k= 1 k= 1 w= 1 w (13) θ k η km δ s κ w 參數 (13) 兩 p s 率 (marginal rate of substitution MRS) 6

7 MRS sp W W W θ + η Z + δ IZ + κ IZ V dx = - = - V s sm w s w w w n ns w= 1 w w W n dxnp θp + ηpwz w w= 1 (14) 若 p (14) s 利行類 N n 率 P(e 1 -e n V n -V 1,, e N -e n V n -V N ) (15) n=1,,n 立 I (type I extreme value distribution or a Gumbel distribution) 離 (discrete choice model)(hausman and McFadden 1984 Rolfe et al. 1999) e i logit n 率度數 (,, n h ) PU > U n hh N = N e n= 1 V n e V n (16) (16) conditional logit (Greene, 2000) 若 T 利 (maximum likelihood) 數數 T N N Vn Vn ln L = d ln e e n = 1 n= 1 n= 1 (17) d n n 數. 聯異聯更兩理論行 Monacolin K 量 1 列說 2007 年 4 連路來見降 1.( 老勞力 ) 2.( 7

8 老 ) 3. 復 ( 糖降 ) Monacolin K 量參 Monacolin K 量 2.4~ ( ) 利 D-error (Zwerina et al. 1996) SAS 84 異不 2 不 2 42 料 1 料來復說 Monacolin K 量 2.4 / 4.8 / 9.6 / 說 ( ) ( 60 ) ,200 1,600 ( 1). 料 2007 年 5 19~22 蘭行 ( ) ( 六 ) 行不例六便利 (convenience sampling) 行率 85% 料 ( 2) 女數女例 (53.7%) 年 36 79,365 19, 年 90,181 12,756 (2007) 2006 年 % 32.7% 度 73.2% 數 2 Boyle et al. (2001) 聯若不狀不數零 Hicksian 8

9 度 2 料數女 ~ 年 31~ ~ ~ 度 61~ () , ,001~20, ,001~30, ,001~40, ,001~50, , 狀 20, ,001~40, ,001~60, ,001~80, ,001~100, ,001~120, ,001~140, ,001~160, ,001~180, ,001~200, , 老料來數 ( ) (10.89) 19,405 (12,271.06) 79,365 (50,495.10). conditional logit (Greene, 2000) 行利 Newton-Raphson (17) 數參數 (13) 數量 9

10 LIMDEP 7.0(Greene 1992) (likelihood ratio) 行度臨度良 1. 數不量 3 4 數降度數復數 Monacolin K 量數復數異不數 (2004 林 2003) 10

11 3 數不量數數量 ASC 不 ( 不 ) GM 料 0 1 HP 01 老勞力 DP 老 01 復 DC 糖降 01 MK Monacolin K 量數 0 說 HF 01 PRI 60 CAN1 01 LIV1 01 BONE1 OLD1 01 老 01 DISCAN 01 DISLIV 01 DISBONE 01 DISOLD 老 01 料來 11

12 4 數數數 t 1 ASC GM *** HP *** DP *** DC *** MK *** HF *** PRI *** Log likelihood ad-ρ (LRT) 料來 1 * ** *** 10% 5% 1% 22 (8,0.001)= 行老老 ( 5) 12

13 5 數數數 t 1 ASC GM *** HP *** DP *** DC *** MK *** HF *** PRI *** DP*CAN * DP*LIV ** DP*BONE DP*OLD ** Log likelihood ad-ρ (LRT) 料來 1 * ** *** 10% 5% 1% 2 χ 2 (12,0.001)= 狀狀度 (9) 理論狀度 ( 6) Li et al. (2004) 度 13

14 6 數數數 t 1 ASC GM *** HP *** DP *** DC *** MK *** HF *** PRI *** DP*CAN DP*LIV DP*BONE DP*OLD * DP*CAN1*DISCAN DP*LIV1*DISLIV *** DP*BONE1*DISBONE DP*OLD1*DISOLD Log likelihood ad-ρ (LRT) 料來 1 * ** *** 10% 5% 1% 2 χ 2 (16,0.001)= 數參數 (14) ( 7) 行 ( 60 1,000 ) 14

15 7 料療 Monacolin K 量 9.6 ( ) (%) 料來 2. 5 數參數 (14) 老 ( 8) 老 ~ ( %~170.97%) 8 不類 ( ) ( ) (%) 不老料來 3. 狀 6 數參數 (14) 老狀 ( 9) ~1, ( 31.9%~235.2%) 理論狀度 15

16 9 老 , , ( ) , (%) 料來. 論理論立理論度理論行 Monacolin K 量利論行略度參 Monacolin K 量復料料若利料老 199 ~358 ( 139%~171%) 狀 32%~235% 金利 ( 林 2006) 流力來類力不識行列行略參 16

17 . 參 (2007) 96 年 7 1 行 (2007) 行 96 年 7 1 行 (2007) 96 年 4 26 林 (2003) 靈論林 (2006) 金利 (2006) 念理 96 年 4 20 (2004) GMO/GMF 行 (2006) 理 (95 年 5 17 ) 95 年 (2004) 利 2(2) (2006) 12(1)

18 Hu, W., Chen, K., Yoshida, K. (2006). Japanese consumers' perceptions on and willingness to pay for credence attributes associated with canola oil. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 38(1), Boccaletti, S., & Moro, D. (2000). Consumer willingness-to-pay for GM food products in Italy. AgBioForum, 3(4), Boyle, K. J., T. P. Holmes, M. F. Teisl, and B. Roe, A Comparison of Conoint Analysis Response Formats, American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 83: Bukenya, J. O., & Wright, N. R. (2007). Determinants of consumer attitudes and purchase intentions with regard to genetically modified tomatoes. Agribusiness, 23(1), Burton M. & Pearse D. (2002). Consumer attitudes towards genetic modification, functional foods, and microorganisms: a choice modeling experiment for beer. AgBioForum, 5(2): Cook, P. J. & Graham, D. A. (1977). The demand for insurance and protection: the case of irreplaceable commodities. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 91(1), Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric Analysis. Fourth Edition. Prentice Hall: New Jersey. Greene, W. H.(1992). LIMDEP Version 7.0, New York: Econometric Software Inc. Hausman, J. & Mcfadden, D. (1984). Specification tests for the multinomial logit model. Econometrica. 52: Hoban, T. (1998). Trends in consumer attitudes about agricultural biotechnology. AgBioForum, 1(1), 3-7. Huffman, W. E., Rousu, M., Shogren, J. F. & Tegene, A. (2004). Consumer's resistance to genetically modied foods: the role of information in an uncertain environment. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 2(2),

19 Li, Q., McCluskey, J. J. & Wahl, T. I. (2004). Effects of information on consumers' willingness to pay for GM-corn-fed beef. Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization, 2(2), Lusk, J. L., House, L.O., Valli, C., Jaeger, S.R., Moore, M., Morrow, B. & Traill, W. B. (2004). Effect of information about benefits of biotechnology on consumer acceptance of genetically modified food: evidence from experimental auctions in the United States, England, and France. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 31(2), Lusk, J.L. (2003). Using experimental auctions for marketing applications: a discussion. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 35: Lusk, J.L., Daniel, M.S., Mark, D.R. & Lusk, C.L. (2001). Alternative calibration and auction institutions for predicting consumer willingness to pay for nongenetically modified corn chips. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 26(1), Rolfe, J., Bennett, J. & Louviere, J. (1999). What information do the error terms hide in choice modeling environmental valuation studies? Contributed paper, 43 rd AARES Conference, Christchurch, New Zealand, Jan, Rousu, M., W. Huffman, J. F. Shogren., & A. Tegene. (2002). Information on genetically modified foods and how it affects consumers: evidence from experimental auctions. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. West, G. E., Gendron, C., Larue, B. & Lambert, R. (2002). Consumers' valuation of functional properties of foods results from a Canada-wide survey. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50(4), Zwerina, K., Huber, J. & Kuhfeld, W. F. (1996). A general method for constructing efficient choice designs. SAS Technical Support Documents Statistical & Marketing Research. Retrieved March 12, 2007, from the World Wide Web: 19

20 1 說說 1. 率 26.5% 3 年 (25-44 ) 殺 Monacolin K () 力 Monascus anka 降降狀 1. 流度易易狀行老年女率女 25% 率 2.D 老 1. 老 () 65 見見狀行力降力行 4~5 療 2. 老切連 Monacolin K 老率 60%~73% 料來 20

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