BuletinofSoiland WaterConservation Vol.38,No.5 Oct.,2018 >O ) ( = X 8 /,6 + V -. 1,5 2,3,# 3 2, 2,8 4 (1. Z[ G, O ;2. Z[ (, O ;

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1 BuletinofSoiland WaterConservation Vol.38,No.5 Oct.,2018 >O ) ( =X 8 /,6 +V -. 1,5 2,3,# 3 2, 2,8 4 (1.Z[ G, O ;2.Z[ (, O ; 3.< CD, O ;4. Z( L) 0 G, L ). /:[]5 T ' ]!,^ M 2, 8 C D []^6 <J O,)Fb/,( BP bc 9;, 9T']! [])Fb \9 BP b c,!, A 2020, 2025, , , hm 2," P; T '] :Z[F ;>Z[? > 6X>a [])Fb $,M5T' ] 01 : ;)Fb ;;J O :A 234: X(2018) %5674:F : I+,9 8,7,. )Fb R T']!5 [J].,2018,38(5): DOI: /j.cnki.stbctb Wang Quanxi,Sun Pengju,LiuXuelu,etal.Predictionofcultivatedlandareaandimportanceofinfluencingfactorsbasedon randomforestalgorithm[j].buletinofsoiland WaterConservation,2018,38(5): 犘狉犲犱犻犮狋犻狅狀狅犳犆狌犾狋犻狏犪狋犲犱犔犪狀犱犃狉犲犪犪狀犱犐犿狆狅狉狋犪狀犮犲狅犳犐狀犳犾狌犲狀犮犻狀犵犉犪犮狋狅狉狊犅犪狊犲犱狅狀犚犪狀犱狅犿犉狅狉犲狊狋犃犾犵狅狉犻狋犺犿 - 犃犆犪狊犲犛狋狌犱狔狅犳犙犻狀犵狔犪狀犵犆犻狋狔, 犌犪狀狊狌犘狉狅狏犻狀犮犲 WANG Quanxi 1,SUNPengju 2,3,LIU Xuelu 2,LIShangze 2,GAOJiancun 4 (1. 犆狅犾犲犵犲狅犳犕犪狀犪犵犲犿犲狀狋, 犌犪狀狊狌犃犵狉犻犮狌犾狋狌狉犪犾犝狀犻狏犲狉狊犻狋狔, 犔犪狀狕犺狅狌, 犌犪狀狊狌 , 犆犺犻狀犪 ; 2. 犆狅犾犲犵犲狅犳犚犲狊狅狌狉犮犲狊犪狀犱犈狀狏犻狉狅狀犿犲狀狋犪犾犛犮犻犲狀犮犲狊, 犌犪狀狊狌犃犵狉犻犮狌犾狋狌狉犪犾犝狀犻狏犲狉狊犻狋狔, 犔犪狀狕犺狅狌, 犌犪狀狊狌 , 犆犺犻狀犪 ;3. 犔犪狀犱犚犲狊狅狌狉犮犲狊犘犾犪狀狀犻狀犵犪狀犱犚犲狊犲犪狉犮犺犐狀狊狋犻狋狌狋犲狅犳犌犪狀狊狌犘狉狅狏犻狀犮犲, 犔犪狀狕犺狅狌, 犌犪狀狊狌 , 犆犺犻狀犪 ;4. 犆狅犾犲犵犲狅犳犘狌犫犾犻犮犕犪狀犪犵犲犿犲狀狋, 犆犺犻狀犪犝狀犻狏犲狉狊犻狋狔狅犳犌犲狅狊犮犻犲狀犮犲, 犠狌犺犪狀, 犎狌犫犲犻 , 犆犺犻狀犪 ) 犃犫狊狋狉犪犮狋 :[Objective]Toanalyzetheimportanceofthefactorsthatinfluencethechangeofcultivatedland areainordertopredicttheamountofcultivatedlandarearesources,andtoservicetheprotectionofcultivated land.[methods]taking QingyangCityofGansuProvinceasacasestudy,therandomforestalgorithm wasused toconstructthepredictionmodelofcultivatedlandarea.theresultswerecomparedwiththoseofbpneural networkmodel,andtheimportanceofthefactorsthatinfluencingcultivatedlandareachangewassorted. [Results]Therelativeerrorandroot meansquareerrorofthepredictionresultsoftherandom forest algorithm weresmalerthanthatofbpneuralnetwork,andthepredictionaccuracywashighandtheresults werestable.thecultivatedlandareain2020,2025and2030waspredictedtobe , and hm 2,respectively,showingadecreasingtrend.Theimportanceofthe maininfluencing : : :<<& XY456(XY ICD (GSAN ZL ) : I+(1993 ), (L ),< O?, ACDX,CD G E mail: @qq.com :9 8(1963 ), (L ), <O?,@A,, AX#,GCD E mail: @qq.com

2 factorswasrankedas:agriculturalmachinerygeneraldynamics> agriculturalpopulation> GDP> fixed assetinvestment.[conclusion]therandomforestalgorithmissuitableforthepredictionofcultivatedlandarea andcanmeasuretheimportanceoffactorsthatinfluencethechangeofcultivatedlandarea. 犓犲狔狑狅狉犱狊 : 犮狌犾狋犻狏犪狋犲犱犾犪狀犱犪狉犲犪 ; 狉犪狀犱狅犿犳狅狉犲狊狋犪犾犵狅狉犻狋犺犿 ; 狆狉犲犱犻犮狋犻狅狀 ; 犙犻狀犵狔犪狀犵犆犻狋狔 )` /,/ 0 W,XY8 _,6.(8 T `,8] 2017 D P 0 8B 9 M2 Z2 XY 8 M2 6.YP [1], W 6 \] I [2],6 R T' CD ] PR T'CD &" [3] 9 (_ [PQ CD, ( T' - PQ, T' *,! 9 CD : T ', STIRPAT [4] * P 5 [5] 5 5 [6 7] G0$ [8] PLS [9] CD T' 9,$,! * [10] $ [11] P [12],BP bc [13] 2 $F [14] b,! /CD :.? T' Z[. T', CD T'5 ^R CD,9 C D ' _, 9#T'] C D )F(randomforest,RF)b M 5 G C!/ [15],9M 2 WJK,$ G, O a _!, M5_ T' ]! [16],) F b 7 2 Q [17 18],Z 6 [19] 5 b 6 [20] > 6 5O,CD _ RF b 5O S [21] CD300a_ R," 0,0P TU, CD ^6 J O,)F b 9J O, J O.9,^ 6!,5T',9$G8 C^R68 ] /0 1.1!"K J O( E, N), < W6, 3< 6 %, U6 P, 885~2082 m b, W M\, 6, 480~660mm, Z Z Y X J O L167>,2015? , hm 2 )1, `G J O [^) : J O " " YP QXQ CD^ C D, R M, M _ J ( ), M _. ( ),W5M ab $\PCD [4 8],

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6 [4], [,b <,. STIRPAT [J].Z[,2014,30(4): RT'[J].Z[,2008,24(12): [15] Breiman L.Random forests[j].machine Learning, ,45(1):5 32. [5] A,. 6 [16], &, /,.) F C D / (?. \ P P Q C D:^ < [J]. a(,2012,26(3): [J].6(,2011,25(1): [17], M,?. ) F 5 5 " O R 7 [J].8,2014,30(1): R ;5 [J]. G,2014,34(1): [18],L, Z. ) F Q [7] 2,` ;. 5 5 C D [J].Z [ F,2016,47(10):338 2 P ( ;[J]. 6 ( 345.,2012,26(3): [19] ;, &,,. )FbZ 6 [8],, E,. G 0 $ 5O C D [J].Z [ F,2016,47(1): 6? T ' 5 [J], ,2016,36(1): [20] *,, B`,. b )Fb [9],!,)<. 15aT' 5 b6 5O[J].Z [,2017, 5 [J].,2013,27(7): (14): [10] 9 B,7,9.R ; ; [21],9N,G. 300 _ CDR[J].,2011,31(1): R5 [J].6 (,2012,26(2): [11],7,9. $ [J].6 (,2013,27(8): [22] 8,J, M,. )F CD[J]. M,2015,33(6):6 10. [12],c!,?. P [23],,$,.MATLAB bc43 V 7 CD: < 5 5 [M]. G: G H,2013. [J].6(,2015,29(8): [24] E G,[3J,7 J,.6 M2 [13] c=,,7 %. BP bc6v 9;CD[J].,2010,24(5): > CD[J].Z[(6,2007, [25] I, %T U6M2 28(4): YR ; 5 :^ [J]. 6 [14] %,S,<,. F M2 $F Z[CD,2009,27(3): 櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍櫍 ( 335 ) [14] SantisiS,CappeloS,Catalfamo M,etal.Biodegra dationofcrudeoilbyindividualbacterialstrainsanda mixed bacterialconsortium [J].BrazilianJournalof Microbiology,2015,46(2): [15] JianliangXue,Yang Yu,YuBai,etal.MarineOil Degrading MicroorganismsandBiodegradationProcess ofpetroleum HydrocarboninMarineEnvironments:A review[j].currmicrobiol,2015,71: [16]?!, 5I.4IMG a[m]. G: H H,2001. [17] G,R.#0W 9 X [J].,2010,29(1):6 11. [18] JamgocianRP,YapijakisC.Pilot scalecomparisonof bioventingvs.hydrogenperoxideinmaintainingefec tiveaerobicinsitu,bioremediation[j].studiesinen vironmentalscience,1997,66: [19] MerkovaM,Zalesak M,RinglovaE,etal.Degrada tionofthesurfactantcocamidopropylbetainebytwo bacterialstrainsisolatedfrom activated sludge[j]. InternationalBiodeterioration& Biodegradation,2018, 127:

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