第貳章守勢現實主義的理論

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1 理論理論流 400 年 Thucydides 羅 History of the Peloponnesian War Niccolo Machiavelli 論 The Prince Thomas Hobbes George Hegel 說不不了理論 1 了不理論理論 2 理論力力異 3 assumption 論力 4 行狀狀亂 5 力更狀行 6 God helps those who help themselves 1 見識年 James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., Contending Theories of International Relations: A comprehensive Survey, 5 th edition (New York: Longman, 2001), p 理論年 3/4 3 4 Stephen Krasner, Structural Conflict (Berkely: University of California Press, 1985), p Mearsheimer, The False Promise of International Institutions, pp Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979), p

2 理論力力力異論論 7 論力了力立力利若立來 security dilemma 8 理行行利理力 9 不六力不 10 不度不兩 11 力不力 unit level of analysis 來 7 Robert Gilpin, No One Loves a Political Realism, Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring 1996), pp 了不更不見 John H. Herz, Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma, World Politics, Vol. 5, No. 2 (January 1950), pp Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), pp Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, Preface, in Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, ed., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press, 1995), p. x. 11 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, fifth edition (New York: Knopf, 1978). Waltz, Theory of International Politics. 18

3 力 system level of analysis 狀力行 12 冷兩理論流冷落聯理論烈 13 來 neoliberalism constructivism 14 烈論來 15 了 offensive realism 論兩理論狀兩狀狀見不 16 狀 Hobbesian 見不了力 John J. Mearsheimer 12 見 Robert Gilpin, The Richness of the Tradition of Political Realism, International Organization, Vol.38, No.2 (Spring 1984), pp ; Kenneth N. Waltz, Realist Thought and Neorealist Theory, in Charles P. Kindleberger, ed., The Evolution of Theory in International Relations (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1991), pp Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of International Relations, p. 93. 聯臨了力了冷見 Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, Power, Globalization, and the End of the Cold War: Reevaluating the Landmark Case for Ideas, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Winter 2000/01), pp Benjamin Frankel, Restatement the Realist Case: An Introduction, in Benjamin Frankel, ed., Realism: Restatement and Renewal (London: Frank Cass, 1996), pp. xii-xiii. 15 Jeffrey W. Legro and Andrew Moravcsik, Is Anybody Still a Realism? International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 2 (Fall 1999), pp 北年

4 理論行 17 力類行不論量行力來利 18 pessimistic 樂 realists as optimist 19 良歷 20 易力理 perception Stephen Van Evera 力良力惡 21 說異兩力力不說兩不 22 略理論異列 Mearsheimer, The False Promise of International Institutions, p Gideon Rose, Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, World Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1 (October 1998), p Glaser, Realists as Optimists. 20 Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, p Van Evera, Cause of War, p Yuan-kang Wang, Offensive Realism and the Rise of China, Issues & Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1 (March 2004), p John J. Mearsheimer Waltz 力狀 20

5 2-1 異力立利力不利不利料來理略金年 neoclassic realism 年來理論理論不不力力 24 不狀樂不 25 度 26 異不論 27 了理論不論論見 Mearsheimer, the Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001), pp Lynn-Jones and Miller, Preface, p. xii. 25 Rose, Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, pp 理論 3 27 異見 Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, pp

6 理論理論狀力行不狀論不冷例 28 兩略了力不理論論更良力 29 略略說狀略狀見 status-quo bias 30 理行不易說行 defensive actor 31 不不不度不 32 不年兩略 The Strategic Arms Limitations Talks, SALT 1972 年兩見 George H. Quester, Offense and Defense in the International System (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1977), pp Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp Randall L. Schweller, Neorealism s Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma? Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring 1996), pp 行略見 Joseph M. Grieco, Realist International Theory and the Study of World Politics, in Michael W. Doyle and G. John Ikenberry, eds., NewTthinking in International Relations Theory (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1997), pp 見 Snyder, Myths of Empire; 見 Van Evera, Cause of War; also see Van Evera, Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War. 22

7 良利便數不 33 來 arms control 利量識降 34 不 35 狀不度立不利 relative gains 36 不 uncertainty 不略利行略不行狀行例 arms control unilateral defense unilateral restraint Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984), p Glaser, Realists as Optimists, pp Taliaferro structural modifiers offense-defense balance 理料見 Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, pp Robert Jervis, Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999), pp Glaser, Realists as Optimists, p. 68; 見 James D. Fearon, Threat to Use Force: Costly Signals and Bargaining in International Crises, (Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, 23

8 理論來了不 38 行行行更不力行 39 領論良什領來兩行力 40 了 Jack Snyder Stephen Van Evera 例 balance of threat 來力力不來力理力略來識不量 41 理論 offense-defense theory Berkeley, 1992), chap Andrew Kydd, Sheep in Sheep s Clothing: Why Security Seekers do not Fight Each Other, Security Studies, Vol. 7, No. 1 (autumn 1997), pp 理論 Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, pp 力力見 Walt, Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power; and Walt, The Origins of Alliances. 24

9 42 理論狀來力略兩易易理論兩數 1 offense-defense balance 易易 2 offense-defense distinguishability 43 數量率 ratio 44 利 45 了易略來易不略 46 略行列量理論力 47 來 cheating 利來立 confidence-building measures CBMs 來 42 Ted Hopf, Polarity, the Offense-Defense Balance, and War, American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 2 (June 1991), pp Jervis, Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. 44 Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics, Security Studies, Vol. 4, No. 4 (Summer 1995), p Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, What is the Offense-Defense Balance and Can We Measure It? International Security, Vol. 22, No. 4 (spring 1998), pp Van Evera, Cause of War, chap. 6; Van Evera, Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War, pp Lynn-Jones, Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics, pp

10 理論 48 不度不來說理累 regime popularity alliance behavior military doctrine 49 力易易理論理論來 50 來理論更 51 論理論略 48 Glaser, Realists as Optimists, pp Glaser 立 constraint measures 力行見 M. Susan Pederson and Stanley Weeks, A Survey of Confidence and Security Building Measures, in Ralph A. Cossa (ed.), Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Measures (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1995), pp , Keir A. Lieber, Grasping the Technological Peace: The Offense-Defense Balance and International Security, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Summer 2000), p 理論見 Jack S. Levy, The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 2 (June 1984), pp ; Lieber, Grasping the Technological Peace pp Glaser and Kaufmann, What is the Offense-Defense Balance and Can We Measure It? pp

11 理論了不更力了來 52 理論了更論理論異論 Jeffrey W. Taliaferro 2000 來 Fareed Zakaria 數狀領 pathological 行略來來略了了 53 Zakaria 說狀 at minimum 不行 structural modifiers 例理行行 54 力 material power Jeffrey Legro Andrew Moravcsik 理行 52 Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, p Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America s World Role (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1998), pp , Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, p

12 理論領念力來念力理論 parsimony 連 55 Jeffrey W. Taliaferro 說力力來力了來說了略力行來理 Legro Moravcsik 了理 rationalist 理行理行了 56 量了狀理行了來不了理論 degeneration auxiliary 異例 57 理論便來 non-falsifiable 理論 58 Imre Lakatos 55 Legro and Moravcsik, Is Anybody Still a Realism? p Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, pp ; 領見 Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack, Let Us Now Praise Great Man: Bring the Statesman Back In, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Spring 2001), pp Legro and Moravcsik, Is Anybody Still a Realism? pp. 9, 樂 18 北立 2003 年 28

13 領論 methodology of scientific research programs, MSRP 59 Lakatos 理論來理論立了理論識見論異論不理論理論不 60 了度理論不了 61 理論不理論更 62 論 Lakatos 理論更 59 Imre Lakatos, Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes, in Imre Lakatos and Alan Musgrave, eds., Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1970), pp ; John A. Vasquez MSRP 理論列論論見 Vasquez, The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative versus Progressive Research Programs: An Appraise of Neotraditional Research on Waltz s Balancing Proposition, American Political Science Review, Vol. 91, No. 4 (December 1997), pp ; Kenneth N. Waltz, Evaluating Theories, ibid., pp ; Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, Progressive Research on Degenerate Alliances, ibid., pp ; Colin Elman and Mariam Fendius Elman, Lakatos and Neorealism: A Reply to Vasquez, ibid., pp ; Randall L. Schweller, New Realist Research on Alliances: Refining, Not Refuting, Waltz s Balancing Proposition, ibid., pp ; Stephen M. Walt, The Progressive Power of Realism, ibid., pp ; 見 Vasques Lakatos 領論年 Walt, The Progressive Power of Realism, pp Legro and Moravcsik, Is Anybody Still a Realism? pp 樂 29

14 理論狀良略論論論略狀狀更略狀露不論邏論更說狀狀略狀歷力狀力力不狀 63 狀來說了 64 狀立力 relative power defensive positionalist 65 了力利狀 Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, p Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p Grieco, Realist International Theory and the Study of World Politics, pp ; Grieco 利 relative gains also see Grieco, Understanding the Problem of International Cooperation: The Limits of Neoliberal Institutionalism and the Future of Realist Theory, in David A. Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), p A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1980), pp ; E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis (London: Macmillan, 1946), pp , cited from Barry 30

15 challengers 力不行 67 狀了力狀 Randall L. Schweller 利 self-preservation and protection of values 狀 68 力歷 69 力狀力行利不略 70 Robert Jervis 略來略狀 71 狀略 Buzan, People, State, and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1991, 2 nd edition), p Morgenthau imperialism 見 Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, p. 74. 狀見 Schweller, Neorealism s Status-Quo Bias, pp ; Johnston, Is China a Status Quo Power? pp. 6-12; Johnston Morgenthau Organski Kugler 狀不力更見 ibid., p. 9, note Schweller, Neorealism s Status-Quo Bias, p. 99. Arnold Wolfers 狀 status quo Power 力來見 Wolfers, The Balance of Power in Theory and Practice, in Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962), p Glaser 見 Charles L. Glaser, Political Consequences of Military Strategy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models, World Politics, Vol. 44, No. 4 (July 1992), pp. 498, Barry R. Posen 略狀略見 Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine, pp. 19, 69, and Jervis, Cooperation under the Security Dilemma, pp

16 理論略來說行 72 Snyder denial punishment 兩力降略度復力略 73 理論行利理力狀 74 略了量來 75 略理論復 76 理論兩不念略利行量降行不復降行來領 Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), p Glenn H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1961), pp 略論略兩略年 Karen Ruth Adams, Attack and Conquer? International Anarchy and the Offense-Defense-Deterrence Balance, International Security, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Winter 2003/04), p. 48. Adams 立來理論見 ibid., pp Abram N. Shulsky, Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior (Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand, 2000), p Snyder, Deterrence and Defense, pp

17 念兩聯力略不復來易復降不力力量利 78 狀 79 不論狀略 80 compellence 兩不略行理念狀行狀 81 來說度來 82 狀不易力狀略行 78 Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1977), p. 30; 理論略年 Avner Yaniv, Deterrence without the Bomb: The Politics of Israeli Strategy (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1987), pp Robert Jervis 了見 Jervis, Cooperation under the Security Dilemma, pp ; Jervis, Deterrence Theory Revisited, World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 2 (January 1979), pp Thomas C. Shelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960), pp ; Shelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966), pp Jervis, Deterrence Theory Revisited, p Alexander L. George coercive diplomacy 念行不略見 George, Coercive Diplomacy: Definition and Characteristics, in Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, eds., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1994), p

18 理論狀不 83 不不 asymmetric information 不不讀念不不力 84 略 cheating 來了狀行 85 Waltz 不 86 狀了略略更略了了 bargains 行 87 狀不力 Rousseau 說獵鹿 Stag Hunt 狀來 88 來良 signaling Michael Spirtas, A House Divided: The Tragedy and Evil in Realist Theory, Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring 1996), pp Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1999), pp Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp Jervis 螺 Hobbesian spiral 見 ibid., p. 62, note Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p James D. Fearon, Rationalist Explanations for War, International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 3 (Summer 1995), p 獵鹿狀立理行見 Kenneth A. Waltz, Man, the State and the War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959), pp Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler's Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), pp

19 來了立 90 costly 行更不力立了 91 狀狀略不行降力了狀利論 prime hypothesis 冷理論理論良不狀狀不略 Glaser 見 Glaser, Realists as Optimists, pp Kydd 度了了 Glaser 識數量見 Kydd, Sheep in Sheep s Clothing, pp Taliaferro Kydd 識令 rhetoric 亂見 Taliaferro, Security Seeking under Anarchy, pp 論 Glaser 立立度來更降見 Pederson and Weeks, A Survey of Confidence and Security Building Measures, p Kydd, Sheep in Sheep s Clothing, p Zakaria, From Wealth to Power, p

20 理論了不狀 93 立不論力略 94 力度不露不略不 95 了冷論論 explanatory hypotheses 來行理論 1 良 2 行狀狀 3 略力 4 了狀量 indicators manual automatic 見 Eric J. Labs, Beyond Victory: Offensive Realism and the Expansion of War Aims, Security Studies, Vol. 6, No. 4 (Summer 1997), p. 12; John J. Mearsheimer 了 hegemony 若見 Mearsheimer, the Tragedy of Great Power Politics, pp 略 8 95 Andrew Kydd, Sheep in Sheep s Clothing, pp 若數數來良數狀行數數數見 Van Evera, Guide to Methods for Students 36

21 領論來年 90 年來來不更力論樂 97 力狀例不略 contingent realism 98 理論量力力力力了良論論了狀狀狀露論行論冷理論 of Political Science, pp 樂 98 Glaser, Realists as Optimists, p

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第貳章 守勢現實主義的理論

第貳章守勢現實主義的理論