Zhu et al Ngai & Pissarides Benhima

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1 % % % % shidan01@ 163. com ruc - zhangcheng@ 163. com YJC

2 Zhu et al Ngai & Pissarides Benhima

3 6 Montobbio 2002 Krüger Dollar & Wei EPI 160

4 θ i t IM i t0 Y i t Min TP t = γ EP EP t + γ CP CP t 1 s. t. Y i t EP i t Y i t CP i t Y i t LP i t - m+n 1 + γ j = 1 i = E i t = C i t = L i t t α ij t0 Y j t m Y i i t RT i m i m i 1 - λ i t m L i i t m i t m i Ψ i t XF i t0 1 + Y i t RT i t E i t m E i i t C i t m C i i t L i t 1 + λ i t m L i i t i t EX i t EP t = m i E i t / m i Y i t 10 / m i CP t = m C i i t Y i t i j t b 1 i = 1 2 m j = 1 2 m + n b = 1 2 k t 0 t TP EP CP LP γ EP γ CP EP CP Y E C L XF IM EX RT 2 θ α ij γ Ψ λ stochastic frontier analysis SFA 1 2 i j 3 161

5 Battese & Coelli 1995 SFA K L M T 1 LogY it = β 0 + β 1 LogK it + β 2 LogL it + β 3 LogM it + β 4 LogK 2 it + β 5 LogL 2 it + β 6 LogM 2 it + β 7 LogK it LogL it + β 8 LogK it LogM it + β 9 LogL it LogM it + β 10 T t + β 11 T 2 t + β 12 T t LogK it + β 13 T t LogL it + β 14 T t LogM it + V it - U it 12 β U iid N 0 σ 2 u V iid N 0 σ 2 v Kirkley et al Cooper et al non-discretionary variable model NDSC s - k it PUR 13 PUR it = K it - s - k it /K it γ OLS

6 Y 2 L 3 K K t = K t δ t + I t /P t I t P t δ t M T E 7 C IPCC EP CP LP 9 IM EX α ij XF γ EP TP 4 12 λ 13 θ φ γ ψ WTO K / 20% 5. 87% 4 163

7 / / 7. 83% / / 6. 57% / / / % % % / / % / / % / / % 槡 EP EP % 2% 1%

8 % 2 0% % % 0% % % 0% % % % % % R 1 > 0 R 1 0 R 2 > % 0 < R % R %

9 % γ % 2 LnK LnK LnK T LnL LnL LnL LnL LnM LnM LnM σ LnK LnL T γ LnL LnM T T Log-likelihood Z 1% 5% 10% Ln e

10 % 0. 74% % % R 3 > 0 R 3 0 R 4 > % 0 < R % R % % % % % %

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14 TFP Battese G. E. and Coelli T. J A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data Empirical Economics Benhima K Financial Integration Capital Misallocation and Global Imbalances International Money and Finance Coelli T. Grifell-Tatje E. and Perelman S Capacity Utilisation and Profitability A Decomposition of Short-run Profit Efficiency International Journal of Production Economics Cooper W. W. Seiford L. M. and Zhu J Data Envelopment Analysis A Comprehensive Text with Models Applications References and DEA-solver Software New York Springer Science and Business Media. Dollar D. and Wei S. J Das wasted Kapital Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China NBER Working Paper. Kirkley J. Paul C. J. M. and Squires D Capacity and Capacity Utilization in Common-pool Resource Industries Environmental and Resource Economics Krüger J. J Productivity and Structural Change A Review of the Literature Economic Surveys Montobbio F An Evolutionary Model of Industrial Growth and Structural Change Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Ngai L. R. and Pissarides C. A Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth American Economic Review Zhu Y. B. Shi Y. J. and Wang Z How Much CO 2 Emissions Will be Reduced through Industrial Structure Change if China Focuses on Domestic Rather than International Welfare Energy

15 Toward the Systemic Optimization of China s Manufacturing Industry Structure Based on Output Structure Optimization and Element Structure Matching Perspectives SHI Dan a and ZHANG Cheng b a a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences b Nanjing University of Finance and Economics Summary The optimized adjustment of China s manufacturing industry structure composed by output structure optimization and element structure optimization is not only one of the core elements of Made in China 2025 but also an important way to promote supply-side reform. How to further understand the upgrading of the industrial structure and the lack of rationalization in the manufacturing industry and the role they play in promoting economic development quality efficiency and upgrading of the main battlefield have become major issues in academia. In the optimization of output structure the current literature introduces energy conservation efficient employment industry coordination and other factors in optimization analysis but it often fails to take full advantage of relevant information on open economy and the contribution of technology. At the same time the current literature discusses the issues of output structure optimization and optimal allocation of production factors yet the two skins phenomenon prevents these issues from being organically combined together. Based on the current literature this paper first uses non-linear programming technology from the perspective of energysaving emission reduction accounting for efficient employment industry balance import and export potential technical level contribution and other factors optimize the output structure of China s double-digit industries in Then we use the transcendental logarithmic production function model to extract the non-linear relationship between factor inputs and economic outputs and identify the relatively appropriate element structure of the optimized output structure. Finally based on Data Envelopment Analysis technology capital stock is used to estimate and analyze the capacity utilization level before and after optimization. The findings are as follows. First the manufacturing industry structure has huge optimized adjustment potential and can reduce energy intensity and carbon dioxide intensity by % and % respectively compared with the 2015 values. Second to decrease resource misallocation the input factors of the manufacturing industry require linkage matching especially the capital stock which should be adjusted by a large amplitude after the output structure optimization. Third the results of the calculation of the utilization level of capital stock further show that the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity % in 2015 is much lower than the average level % in the second half of the 12th Five-year Plan for the national economy which is affected by the investment inertia and slowdown of economic growth while the capacity utilization after the linkage matching of input factors can be improved to match the latter. The main contributions of this paper are the following. First in the optimization of the manufacturing output structure we focus on the import and export potential indicators from the demand side and the technical level contribution index from the supply side. Second we overcome the two skins phenomenon of the analyses in the current literature by organically combining output structure optimization and factor input matching. Third in the study of element structure matching this article follows the idea of inheritance and criticism thus it relies not only on the extraction of historical information to carry out the initial matching of the element structure but also analyzes the allocation of capital stock focusing on the capital stock overcapacity problem. Keywords Industry Structure Element Structure Overcapacity Energy-saving and Emission-reduction JEL Classification O21 Q01 Q56 172

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