从双边博弈到多边合作,,!! (TheAgeofOil) (Leonardo Maugeri),,,, 1,,, ;,, 2,,,,,,,,,,, (Drew Fudenberg) (JeanTirole), LeonardoMaugeri, TheAgeofOil:TheMytho

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1 世界政治年第期从双边博弈到多边合作 * 中日俄石油管线争端的案例研究徐斌黄少卿作者试图运用博弈论分析工具剖析中日俄石油管线争端案例, 借此建立一个国家间能源交易合作机制的分析框架国家间能源博弈要实现合作解, 分别可以依托双边机制多边机制和第三方机制中俄有关东北亚石油管线的建设项目长期陷入僵局的根源在于两国的双边博弈缺乏稳定解, 这不但与日本介入这一外部因素有关, 也与中俄之间的经贸关系以及国际市场油价的波动等因素密不可分, 从而使重复博弈和质押等双边机制的作用受到限制在当前国际社会缺乏强制性第三方机制的条件下, 为了更好地保障中俄国家间的能源合作, 在完善双边机制作用的同时, 当务之急是要参与建设和完善各类多边机制双边博弈 ; 多边合作 ; 俄中日石油管线争端徐斌, 中国石油大学副教授, 中国石油大学中国能源战略研究中心研究员, 经济学博士 ( 北京邮编 : ); 黄少卿, 中欧国际工商学院研究员, 经济学博士 ( 上海邮编 : ) D A - ( ) - - * WTO ( ),,,,

2 从双边博弈到多边合作,,!! (TheAgeofOil) (Leonardo Maugeri),,,, 1,,, ;,, 2,,,,,,,,,,, (Drew Fudenberg) (JeanTirole), LeonardoMaugeri, TheAgeofOil:TheMythology, History, andfutureoftheworld' smostcontroversial Resource, Westport:PraegerPublishers, ;[ ], :!!, : /,,,,,,,,,, (, ),,,, (OPEC) ;,,,,,,,,, [ ] [ ], :, :

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14 从双边博弈到多边合作,,,,,,,, 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, [ 收稿日期 : - - ] [ 修回日期 : - - ] [ 责任编辑 : 谭秀英 ] 1,

15 No., WorldEconomicsandPolitics aprojectfolowingtheeu' senergydiversificationstrategy, ignitesageo-politicalenergygamebetweeneu andrusia, which entanglesthecompetitionsforgassources andpipeline routesin Middle Asia Basin, Iran and Trans-Caucasus, and transit countries, suchasturkey, EastEurope.Thefutureofthispipelinewilinfluencethe EU-US-RU triangleandchalengethegassourcesofchina-middleasiapipeline, whichisareciprocalandrationalchoiceforchinaandmiddleasiancountries. By setingagamemodelinwhichbothsidesinfluencetheother' sbehaviorbychanging itsownutility, theauthorsarguesthatthetwoactors' utilitiesvariesasthe equilibrium changesinreality, andthehighercostsforrusiatoexertpresureoneu are conducivetothediversificationofeu' senergyimports. KeysWords Nabuco, investment, gassources, game Authors PangChangwei, DirectoroftheInstituteforInternationalOilPoliticatChinaUniversityofPetroleum (Beijing);ZhangMeng, MasterCandidateinChinaUniversityofPetroleum (Beijing), SchoolofHumanitiesandSocialScience. From Bilateralism to Multilateralism: thepetroleum Pipeline Dilemma among Rusia, Chinaand Japan XuBin HuangShaoqing ( ) Abstract Usingthegametheory, thisarticletriestoprovideatheoreticframeworkto internationalenergycoperationbasedonacasestudyofthepipelinedisputeamong China, RusiaandJapan.Thecoperationsolutionofinternationalenergygamesmay beachievedthroughmechanismsofbilateralism, multilateralism orthethirdpartyenforcer.inthecasestudy, thereasonwhythenortheastasianoilpipelineprogram betweenchinaandrusiahadrunintotroubleformany yearswastheabsenceofa steadysolutiontothegame, withjapan' sinterpositionasanoutsidefactor, owingto theeconomicandtraderelationbetweenchinaandrusiaand thefluctuation ofoil prices.curently, withoutathirdpartyenforcerininternationalenergyregime, China shouldengageactivelyinbuildingorimprovingthemultilateraland bilateralmechanisms. KeyWords bilateralism, multilateralism, Rusia, ChinaandJapanpipelinedilemma Authors XuBin, AsociateProfesorofChinaUniversityofPetroleum, BeijingCampus(CUP), Ph.D.inEconomics;HuangShaoqing, ResearchFelowofChinaEurope InternationalBusinesSchol(CEIBS), Ph.D.inEconomics.

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