2007 7,, 1992,,,,,, (Lin et al., 2003), (Lardy, 1994, 8 14 ),,, 30?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Yang et al., 2003) 20 70, (Lin, 1992),,, :, 20 80, :, 21,

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1 : 3 :,,,,,,, : 30,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Ravallion and Chen, 1999),, :,,,, : (1) (Rawski, 2001) ; (2), (Solinger, 2001) ; (3), (Solinger, 1999) ; (4),, 3, : org. cn 5 10 ( 06&ZD003) 4

2 2007 7,, 1992,,,,,, (Lin et al., 2003), (Lardy, 1994, 8 14 ),,, 30?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Yang et al., 2003) 20 70, (Lin, 1992),,, :, 20 80, :, 21,, (,2005 ;Wu, 2003),, GDP, 24 % 24 %, 21 %(,1999) (World Bank, 1997) 5

3 :,,,,,,,,, ;, 20 80,,,,,, 20 90,,,,,,,,,,, (Cai and Wang, 2005) ;, ;,, :,,, ;,,, ;, 1978, 7613 %, %, 1213, 1Π4,,,, 6,

2007 7,,,, 20 90, ( 1),,90,,,, 1995 2005 11 %, 4,, 10 2373,,,,,,,, 1, :, 1, 1, : ( ) ( %) ( ) ( %), 1997 3890 1488, 1998 4936 26189 1872 25181, 1999 5204 5143 2115 12198, 2000 6134 17189 2824 33152

4 2007 7,,,, 20 90, ( 1),,90,,,, %, 4,, ,,,,,,,, 1, :, 1, 1, : ( ) ( %) ( ) ( %), , , , , : 2000, ;, 2000, 1, 40 % : (2006) 5216 %,5716 %,6812 %, 7918 % (, 2004), (2005),

5 : 20 80, 1Π3, ,, (Carter et al., 1996),, 1Π3, 115 2,,,, ;,, 20 90, ( Hu and McAleer, 2002) ;,,, 2,,,, , 1419 %,,?,,, (,2006),,,,,,, (,2004) (2006), (,2007), 2, 114, 1108,, ,, 118 (,2006), 1105, %, 1Π5, 2005, , (,2006), 1108,, ( Zhao, 1999),,,, 8, (2002), %, 117, , 300, 119, 320, 1178

2007 7,,,,,, ( 2 2), : (1) 50 % 40,,40 2006 ; (2) 2000, 5212 ; (3) (2006), 1017 % :?

6 2007 7,,,,,, ( 2 2), : (1) 50 % 40,, ; (2) 2000, 5212 ; (3) (2006), 1017 % :?, 20 80, 90, ( 3), 70 90, , ,,, , 2000,, 696 ;, 298 ; 391,,, ,,,? 3,, 3 :,,,, %, %, 1,, (2004) 9

7 :,,,,,,, :, 20 90,,,,, ;,,, 20 90,,,,,,,,, 2 ( %),, , , % ,, %, %, %, % ,, ,,, , ;, , : ; ; ( ILO) ; %,,,, ( 2) 10

8 2007 7,, ( ),,,20 90, %,, (,2004), %,, 1 3,,, 2001,,,,, (, 2004),,,,,,,,,, (Lewis, 1954),,,,,,, (Bloom, et al., 1997 ; Williamson, 1997),,,,, (Williamson, 1997),,, 20,,, (16 64 ), (2004), 1999, 708, %, %, %, 11

9 :,, ( 4),,,,,, 16 65,, 1, GDP 01115, GDP 27 %(Cai and Wang, 2005) 4 : ; ( GDP ), 30,, 30, 2015,,,,,2015,,,,,,,,, (TFR),, , 211, 2004,,,2010 (,2006) 12

10 2007 7,,, 3,, , , , , n1 a1 n1 a1, n1 a1 n1 a1 ( 3) n1 a1 n1 a1,, : ; ; , %,, ,, 64 %(,2007),,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,2004 :, 3,2004 :?, 9,2004 :, 4,2006 :,,1999 :, 10,2007 : No1 8, 13

11 :,2005 :, ( ), 4, 4,,2007 : 2,, : http :ΠΠwww1gov. cnπzwhdπft3π π content htm,2002 :, 2002 :,, 2005 : 2004, , http :ΠΠwww. sannong. gov. cnπqwfbπncjjπ htm,2006 : , : http :ΠΠwww. gov. cnπjrzgπ π22πcontent htm,2006 :, No. 7,,2006 : :, http :ΠΠnews1. jrj. com. cnπnewsπ π html,2004,, http :ΠΠwww. china. org. cnπchineseπ2004πjanπ htm( ) Bloom, David E. and Jeffrey G. Williamson,1997, Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No Cai, Fang and Wang Dewen, 2005, China s Demographic Transition : Implications for Growth, in Ross Garnaut and Song Ligang, eds, The China Boom and Its Discontents, Canberra : Asia Pacific Press. Hu, Baiding and Michael McAleer, 2002, Sectoral Productivity Growth in China, http :ΠΠwww. iemss. orgπiemss2002πproceedingsπpdfπ volume %20dueΠ114. pdf. Lardy, Nicholas R., 1994, China in the World Economy,Washington, D. C. : Institute for International Studies. Lewis, W. A., 1954, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour, The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 22, , Reprinted in A. N. Agarwala and S. P. Singh (eds. ) The Economics of Underdevelopment, Bombay : Oxford University Press, Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992, Rural Reforms and Agricultural Productivity Growth in China, American Economic Review, 82 : Lin, Justin, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li, 2003, The China Miracle : Development Strategy and Economic Reform (Revised Edition), Hong Kong : The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press. Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen, 1999, When Economic Reform Is Faster Than Statistical Reform : Measuring and Explaining Income Inequality in Rural China, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (1) : Rawski, Thomas G., 2001, What s Happening to China s GDP Statistics? China Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 4, December, pp Solinger, Dorothy, 2001, Economic Informalization by Fiat : China s New Growth Strategy as Solution or Crisis? in Luigi Tomba (ed. ),On the Roots of Growth and Crisis : Capitalism, State and Society in East Asia, Rome : Annali Della Fondazione Giangiacomo Feltrinelli, Vol. 2002, pp Solinger, Dorothy J., 1999, Citizenship Issues in China s Internal Migration : Comparisons with Germany and Japan, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 3 : Williamson, Jeffrey, 1997, Growth, Distribution and Demography : Some Lessons from History, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper, No World Bank, 1997, China 2020 : Development Challenges in the New Century, Washington, D. C. Wu, Yanrui, 2003, Has Productivity Contributed to China s Growth? Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 8, Issue 1. Yang, Dennis Tao and Fang Cai, 2003, The Political Economy of China s Rural2Urban Divide, in Nick Hope, Dennis T. Yang and Mu Yang (eds),how Far Across the River? Chinese Policy Reform at the Millennium, Stanford : Stanford University Press, pp Zhao, Yaohui, 1999, Migration and Earnings Difference : The Case of Rural China, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 47 (4)., ( 22 ) 14

12 : Choice of Economic Growth Styles in China and Transition from the Extensive Style to the Intensive One Wei Xinghua and Hou Weimin (Department of Economics,Renmin University of China) Abstract :The characteristic of economic growth is varying in different development periods. At present,the styles of economic growth in China is still based on extensive growth and restrict its further development. It is a neccesary selection for China to go through the transition from the extensive style to the intensive one, but the transitions are not easy for a series contractions exist. From the view of reality,the ways of transitions between the economic growth styles are both innovation of science and technology and of social system. Key Words : Economic Growth ; Efficiency ; Scientific and Technological Innovation ; Innovation of Social System JEL Classification :O110,P200 ( : ) ( : ) ( 14 ) Growth and Structural Changes in Employment in Transitional China Cai Fang ( Institute of Population and Labor Economics, CASS) Abstract :By clarifying officially published statistics on labor market and employment combined with micro survey data, this paper tries to depict the employment growth and structural change in rural and urban China and to break the myths believed by domestic and international scholars such as zero growth of employment and unchangeable rural surplus labor pool. The paper provides exact statistics about China s labor market that previous studies fail to do so, explaining how labor market develops, employment in both rural and urban areas increases and its structure diversifies, urban unemployment alleviates and number of rural surplus laborers reduces, as a result of economic growth, reform and opening2up. By examining demographic transition process in China, the paper also predicts the emerging trend of labor shortage, suggests a coming Lewisian turning point and reveals its policy implications to China s sustainable growth. Key Words :Labor Market Development ; Employment Growth ; Surplus Labor Force ; Lewisian Turning Point JEL Classification :J210, J110, J230, R110 ( : ) ( : ) 22

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