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1 :, (, ;, ) :,, :,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; : F061. 2; F : A : (2010) Ana lysis on the Cause of Susta ined Growth of Ch inese Econom y: the Perspective of the Pa th of Technolog ica l Progress W E I Feng, FENG Shi - De ( Center of Productivity S tudy, Heilongjiang U niversity, Harbin , China; School of Econom ic, N anjing A udit U niversity, N anjing , China) Abstract:Based on the typ ical facts that sum up Chinaπs econom ic growth, we confirm that Chinaπs economy is able to catch up successfully and technological advances will be roughly on the path through the following three stages: im itation stage, from im itation to innovation transitional period and the innovation stage. The dynam ic analysis in this model shows that when certain conditions are not met, the steady - state point of the power system would be converged to im ita2 tion stage, so the country be therefore caught in the trap state of econom ic stagnation. If the government can distort do2 mestic p rices of p roduction factors and devaluate native currency to imp rove corporateπs p rofitability, it is extremely ef2 fective that for the countries caught in the trap out of econom ic stagnation, and to accelerate the growth rate of the catch - up country. If the advent of the transitional phase from im itation to innovation of China are com ing, the p romoting role to econom ic growth of im itation and FD Iwill be decreased, while the contribution of R & D for econom ic growth will be increased significantly. To maintain long - term stable econom ic growth, the government should reduce the distortions in : : : 2009(, : 09YJC790151) : 50 : ( ),,,, :

2 : the economy, and take the power of making resources p rice returned to the market gradually. Key words: im itation; innovation; path of technological p rogress; Chinsπs econom ic growth, ( 2008) [ 1 ],,, 32. 9% 1981,35%, 40% % ( 2007) ( ), (1992 ),, 30% 40% [ 2 ], [ 3-5 ], Shan (2006),, Young Lau, [ 6 ], ; GDP,, GDP : Global Market Information Da2 tabase ( GM ID ) http: / /www. portal. euromonitor. com /portal/ server. p t, : %, (2006) FD I,,, [ 8 ], Howitt Aghion (1992) [ 9 ] Ofer, G. (1987)( the pattern of extensive growth) [ 7 ] ( ) ( ) 299, %, 413 ( http: / / jp. mofcom. gov. cn /column /p rint. shtm l/ jmxw / / ),, (2007) 51

3 Greenwood (1997) [ 10 ] Bernanke (2001) [ 11 ],,,, Barro (1997) [ 12 ],,,, [ ],, Aghion & Howitt(1992) [ 9 ] Schumpeter,, Solow (2007), ( Solow) (Aghion & Howitt) Schumpet2 er, [ 17 ],,,, ;,,, Acemoglu, Zilibotti, & Aghion ( 2006 ) [ 18 ],, ;, OECD ( OECD,, ),,,, (, ),, [ ] ( low - barrier group) : Chile, Ghana, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, N igeria, Pakistan, Peru, Sin2 gapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, U ruguay, Zambia Zimbabwe; ( high - barrier group) A rgentina, Bo2 livia, B razil, Burkina Faso, Colombia, Dom inican Republic, Ecuador, Egyp t, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Korea, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, the Philipp ines, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Venezuela 52

4 :,,,,,,,,, 2008 GDP,, 30,,,, :,, 19, 9. 2% ; 20, 9. 9% ; 21, 8. 7% ; 26, 9. 5% ; 30, 8. 5% 30,,, : ( ),,, : http: / /extsearch. worldbank. org/ servlet/ : , : % 3 : ( ) : 2008, : http: / /www. stats. gov. cn

5 2010 4,, 2007, (R&D ) 70. 4%, R&D R&D, R&D, 2007, R&D R&D 72. 3%, R&D, R&D R&D 60%, 77% ; 70. 3% ; 50% ; ( ), 35%, 2000,, %, 1000, 76. 5% (, ) 3000,, 60% - 80%, 40%,, FD I , , % ( ) % ( ) : http: / /extsearch. worldbank. org/ servlet/ :

6 : FD I,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,, 30,,,,, ( ), ( R&D ) R&D, R&D ( ) R&D R&D 1991, GDP,, , GDP 0. 55% 0. 75%, ;,, , , GDP, GDP, % % ( % ) ( % ) ( % ) : : (R&D),, 55

7 2010 4, ( ) 2007, 2611, 70% OECD 2007 ( ), 1978, 355, GDP 9. 7% ; 1993, GDP 31. 9% ; 2005, 11. 7, GDP 63. 8% , 43% %, 11. 3% 8. 5%,, %, ,,, 1984, 260, %, (5. 71% ) ( % ) (23. 02% ) (2. 20% ) 1990, %,,, 2003, :

8 : ( % ) ( % ) ( % ) ( % ) ( % ) : http: / /ceicdata. securities. com; , (2009a, 2009b) [ ],,, 80%,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2007) [ 21 ],, 2%, OECD, 61. 2%, ( ) 2005, , 11150, 88%,,,,,, :, 1 /10 1 /20, ;, ( 2007) , GDP % [ 22 ] 35% - 50% 8 OECD ( % ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( % ) ( ) 7112 ( ) 6126 ( ) 6101 ( ) GDP ( % ) ( ) 7125 ( ) 5164 ( ) 6119 ( ) : (2007) [ 21 ] 57

9 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) : , [ 22 ],,,,,,,,,, 1994, , , 1: (2004) CP I, 1987,, 1992,,, Tyers(2008) 1995,,,,,, [ 23 ] 95, 4 CP I (1987 = 100) : International Monetary Fund, 2004, International Financial Statistics, W ashington DC: InternationalMonetary Fund. 58

10 : : [ 23 ] ,,,, %,,,,,,, ;,,, [ 15 ],,,, ;,,,,,,,, ;,, ( 2009b) [ 16 ] 59

11 ; ;,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, FD I ( ),,,,,,,,,, 60,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1) 2) ;,, ;, ;

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