China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study CHARLS 2011 ~ ADL IADL 2001 Fuhrer and Stansfeld

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1 Vol. 40 No. 4 July Population Research * Fertility Behavior and Elderly Women s Health Song Yueping Song Zhengliang Abstract Based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey and treating fertility as a unique event in women s life this paper explores the impact of fertility behavior-number of children gender structure and fertility timing and intervals on elderly women`s health and estimates the healthy survival time of elderly women by using the accelerated failure time model.results show that fertility behavior significantly influences elderly women s health.in a health perspective more children would reduce happiness.less number of children appropriate age at childbearing and longer birth intervals significantly increase healthy survival time.the paper further discusses the mechanisms through which fertility behavior impact elderly women s health and points out that public policy should pay more attention to the potential impact of changing fertility behavior on women s health in the context of implementing a two-child policy. Keyw ords Elderly Woman Fertility Behavior Accelerated Failure Time Model Healthy Survival Time Authors Song Yueping is Associate Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China songyueping@ ruc.edu.cn Song Zhengliang is Master Student School of Population Studies and Sociology Renmin University of China. * 15ZDC036

2 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study CHARLS 2011 ~ ADL IADL 2001 Fuhrer and Stansfeld Chen and Short BMI

3 ~ ~ CHARLS CHARLS

4 4 79 CHARLS Table 1 1 Descriptive Statistics of the Main Variables = = = = = % = ~ ~ ~ % /4 3 5

5 % Logistic 4. 1 survival time event history analysis life table analysis duration analysis hazard analysis censor 4. 2 PH Model AFT T lnt = x'β + u u v = e u T = e x'β v t x = f T ( t ) S T ( t) λ T ( ) = f ( v e -x'β t) e -x'β ( e -x'β t) S v = λ v ( e -x'β t) e -x'β 1 e -x'β > 1 λ v ( t) AFT AFT 1

6 4 81 AIC 1 AFT Kaplan and Meier 1958 Nelson 1972 Aalen 1978 Moeschberger and Klein Table 1 1 Survival Function and Hazard Function of Healthy Survival Time of Elderly Woman Logistic AFT u Logistic Logistic AIC LR L 0 L 1 LR LR = - 2log L 0 - L 1 AFT AIC Akaike information criterion AIC = - 2 logl + 2 c + p + 1 c p

7 82 40 Table 2 2 Regression Results of Fertility Behavior on Elderly Women`s Health AFT Logistic 1 logistic = ** ** * * ** ~ * * ~ *** * *** *** *** *** 31 ~ * * ** ** *** ** ** *** *** *** *** = = = = *** *** ** *** ** 0 = *** *** *** *** *** lnp *** K *** LR AIC * 10% **5% ***1% AIC LR AIC LR 2 3

8 4 83 H 0 lnp = 0 p κ 0 1 Logistic % 0. 8% ~ % 0. 3% ~

9 ~ 3 3 Table 3 3 Prediction Results of Healthy Survival Time of Elderly Woman % 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

10 4 85 /References SenAmartya K Development as Freedom. Renmin University of China Press Liu Qu and Wang Minquan The Value of Health and Its Determinants A Review. China Economic Quarterly Du Peng and Wu Chao Ability of Daily Life of the Chinese Elderly Status and Changes. Population Research Li Jianxin and Li Yi Health Differences of the Chinese Elderly A Gender Perspective. Population Research Zhang Chuanchuan Impacts of Number of Children on Labor Supply and Wage Earnings of Married Women. Population and Economics Yu Jia and Xie Yu The Effect of Fertility on Women's Wages in China. Population Research Zheng Xiaoying The Influence of Disease and Disability on the Life Expectancy of the Elderly Population Investment Direction of Health Resources in the Elderly Population. Chinese Journal of Population Science Fuhrer R and Stansfeld S A How Gender Affects Patterns of Social Relations and Their Impact on Health A Comparison of One or Multiple Sources of Support from Close Persons. Social Science & Medicine Chen Huashuai and Wei Qiang Theoretical Study of the Impact of Marital Quality on Health and Surviving of Chinese Elderly. Chinese Health Economics Toshiko Kaneda Zachary Zimmer Tang Zhe Toshiko Kaneda Xiang Manjun Fang Xianghua and Zachary Zimmer Life and Active Life Expectancy of Elderly People with Different Socioeconomic Status in Beijing. Chinese Journal of Clinical Rehabilitation Zeng Xianxin The Effects of Social-Economic Status on the Mortality Hazard of Chinese Elderly. Population and Economics Zhang Wenjuan and Li Shuzhuo The Effects of Child Intergenerational Support on Life Satisfaction of the Rural Elderly People. Population Research CHARLS

11 Liu Xiguo Does Economic Support Improve the Health Status of the Elderly An Endogenous Test From 2011 CHARLS. South China Population Chen L Yip W Chang M C et al The Effects of Taiwan's National Health Insurance on Access and Health Status of the Elderly. Health Economics Liu Hong Gao Song and Wang Jun The Impact of Elder-care Patterns on Chinese Elderly's Health and Well-being. Economic Research Journal Zhang Wenjuan and Du Peng Regional Disparity in Healthy Life Expectancy for the Chinese Elderly Expansion or Compression Population Research Yin Yin Old-age Support and Mother's Family Status Sons Only or both Sons and Daughters. Population Research Yu Changyong Factors Affecting Peasant`s Attitude towards the Idea of Bring up Sons for Old-age Security Based on the Survey Data of a Thousand Families in Ten Provinces in China. China Rural Survey Lin Guanjuan and Zhao Yaohui Does Parental Son Preference Reduce Women's Welfare Evidence from Divorce and the Pressure of Raising Children. China Economic Quarterly Wu Xiaoyu and Li Lixing Son Preferences Women's Intra-Household Bargaining Power and Its Impacts on Nutrition and Health. China Economic Quarterly Chen Wei and Du Xia The Influencing Factors of Support for and Living Situation of the Oldest Old in China The Role of the Number and Gender of Children. Chinese Journal of Population Science Song Lu and Li Shuzhuo Intergenerational Transition and Its Influence on Health of the Elderly in Rural China A Study of Gender Differences across Generations. Collection of Women's Studies S Liu Jin The Effect of Number of Children on Quality of Livingof the Chinese Rural Oldest-Old. Chinese Journal of Population Science S Geng Dewei An Analysis of the Effects of Children Number on Parental Health Condition. South China Population Zhou Huailing and Fu Yuchun Advocate Late Primiparity. Chinese Journal of Social Medicine Zhu Zhiming He Wenhua Zou Xian and Dai Tangming Best Childbearing Age. Anthology of Medicine 5 21.

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~ ~ * 40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 35 Population Research 2014 1 2016 2016 9101. 0 40 49. 6% 2017 ~ 2021 1719. 5 160 ~ 470 100872 Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Tw o-child