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Asia Pacific Media Coverage 22 August 2016 Japan Nikkei Veritas: Interview with SSGA President and CEO Ronald O'Hanley: Pursue efficiency with factor investing In an interview, State Street Global

1 Asia Pacific Media Coverage 22 August 2016 Japan Nikkei Veritas: Interview with SSGA President and CEO Ronald O'Hanley: Pursue efficiency with factor investing In an interview, State Street Global Advisors President and CEO Ronald O'Hanley discussed the company s strategies, including solutions for effective asset management in a negative interest rate environment. o O'Hanley says the world of investment has undergone several dramatic changes, and investors are concerned that they will not be able to manage assets in the way they wish to. Asset management companies, such as SSGA, are being called on to provide solutions, not just asset management products, and investors are also highly sensitive to costs. There is also a need to accurately provide the returns that customers are demanding and lower asset management costs. SSGA leads the industry with factor investing, which is investment based on analysis of the market's sources of excess return. SSGA has led the field in smart beta, which is one form of factor investing, and it is now pursuing a new field known as alternative beta. o Turning to the Japanese market, O'Hanley says one of SSGA's goals in Japan is to boost the utilization of ETFs, and there is room for Japan's ETF market to grow. SSGA intends to take the approach of using ETFs to compose portfolios aligned to asset management needs, and it will broaden this approach to include high-net-worth individuals and others. O'Hanley says SSGA also intends to explore offering its outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) service in Japan, which it currently only offers in the US, the U.K and several countries in Europe. o The article is accompanied by a photo and profile of O'Hanley. Nikkei Veritas: FT Lex column: Hedge fund buys stake in Morgan Stanley; State Street among firms facing demands from activist investors A translated report from the Financial Times' Lex column says US bank executives have feared activist investors for many years. Furthermore, although almost eight years have passed since the financial crisis, banks' profitability remains at a low level. o Banks such as State Street and Bank of New York Mellon, whose services are based on the trust business, are facing severe demands from activist investors, but the major Wall Street banks have not been targeted. However, on the evening of 15 August, hedge fund ValueAct revealed that it had obtained a 2% stake in Morgan Stanley. o ValueAct has not demanded seats on the board or called for the CEO to be dismissed. Instead, it has expressed its support for Morgan Stanley's management strategy, calling the stock's P/E ratio of 10 and P/B ratio of 0.7 "an extraordinary discount." STATE STREET CORPORATION 1

2 Singapore The Edge: Hidden trading costs of unpopular ETFs could be higher than their management fee The Edge picked up on a Dow Jones report on ETF proliferation which highlighted findings from an academic study that suggests the phenomenon is widening bid-ask spreads for both buyers and sellers. The article highlighted that State Street Global Advisors recent move to close a dozen ETFs was noteworthy as ETF proliferation may be bad for investors, but not so bad for the provider. Additionally, the article also picked up a quote by Nick Good, co-head of SSGA s global SPDR business during his interview with Barron s, as saying, It s important to us to be able to say, hand on heart, that everything we launch we believe in. Good was also quoted as saying that ETFs should be evaluated on whether they perform well and whether they regularly achieve tight bid-ask spreads on top their assets. The Straits Times: Market Highlights The Straits Times reported that Asian equity markets have gained about 20% from a February low in its market highlights on Saturday. The article highlighted that the SPDR Straits Times ETF has been the second-most active ETF by turnover in August with more interest in regional stocks. The Edge: Gold ETF shines as 1H bullion prices gain most in over three decades The Edge picked up on SGX My Gateway s report on the 25% surge in gold prices in the first six month of 2016 as demand for bullion jumped following heightened uncertainty and volatility in global markets. The article highlighted that the SPDR Gold Shares ETF registered a 2016 month-to-date turnover of USD 16.5 million, up nearly fourfold from a year ago, and stated that it is also the fifth-best performing ETF in the month-to-date, generating a total return of 1.4%. The article noted that the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has had a turnover of USD 500 million so far this year, almost double from the same period a year ago. Australia Oversixty.com.au: The gap between retirement dreams and savings reality The article reported on retirement in Australia and cited a report titled, Australian Retirement Vision Survey, commissioned by State Street and conducted by Rice Warner, which has made some startling revelations about the perception that many Australians have about life after retirement and the living standards they can expect. o Jonathan Shead, head of portfolio strategy, Asia Pacific at State Street, said, Many people expected their post-retirement income to be as high as AUD 982 a week, which is significantly higher than the AUD 767 a week that the Association of Super Funds of Australia calculates as the standard required for a comfortable lifestyle and more than doublr the ASFA standard of AUD 443 a week to fund a modest lifestyle. o Shead added, The industry's reputation has taken a battering in the press in recent times deterring some people from seeking out advice; but the evidence clearly shows that most people who have actually received advice find it very worthwhile. Hong Kong Ming Pao Daily News: Is the movement in the price of oil unreasonable? STATE STREET CORPORATION 2

3 The article reported on the US oil industry and mentioned that Soros Fund Management reduced is holdings in SPDR Gold Trust. Hong Kong Economic Journal: Silver industry brings down the price of gold The article noted that demand of gold investment is slowing down and mentioned that SPDR gold held tonnes as of last Friday, which represents a decrease from tonnes, the highest amount held in July. Money Times: Stock market forced to increase Sky Post: Stock market forced to increase The article mentioned that during the second quarter, Soros bought put options on over 1.9 million shares on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. Oriental Daily News: Hong Kong stock market increases over 1,000 points over three weeks, with a short sell ratio of 15% Hong Kong Economic Journal: 360 stock market overview The articles mentioned that short sells in Hong Kong stock market amounted to HKD billion with the short sell ratio increasing to 14.98%; of which, TraHK s short sells amounted to HKD billion with a shortsell ratio of 42.43%. STATE STREET CORPORATION 3

Full Articles Nikkei Veritas 2016-08-21 Interview with SSGA President and CEO

4 Full Articles Nikkei Veritas Interview with SSGA President and CEO Ronald O'Hanley: Pursue efficiency with factor investing STATE STREET CORPORATION 4

5 Nikkei Veritas FT Lex column: Hedge fund buys stake in Morgan Stanley; State Street among firms facing demands from activist investors STATE STREET CORPORATION 5

6 The Straits Times Market Highlights 1. Asian equity markets have gained about 20 per cent from a February low. With more interest in regional stocks, the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF has been the second-most active ETF by turnover in August. 2. Water treatment firm Hyflux has told the Singapore Exchange, in response to queries, that it is unaware of any reason for the unusual price movement in its preference shares 3. Airport services firm Sats has incorporated a subsidiary, Sats Saudi Arabia, in which Sats holds 80 per cent. The Sats wholly-owned unit Sats Airport Services owns the remaining 20 per cent. 4. Soup Restaurant Group co-founder and executive director Wong Chi Keong bought 125,000 shares of the restaurant chain for $25, Shares of engineering group Swee Hong will resume trading on Monday. The board's opinion is that the firm can operate as a going concern after the amount of debt owing was reduced. STATE STREET CORPORATION 6

7 STATE STREET CORPORATION 7

The Edge 2016-08-22 to 2016-08-28 Hidden trading costs of unpopular

8 The Edge to Hidden trading costs of unpopular ETFs could be higher than their management fee STATE STREET CORPORATION 8

The Edge 2016-08-22 to 2016-08-28 Gold ETF shines as 1H bullion

9 The Edge to Gold ETF shines as 1H bullion prices gain most in over three decades STATE STREET CORPORATION 9

10 oversixty.com.au The gap between retirement dreams and savings reality Retirement should be the happiest time of our lives, but recent research by a financial consultant firm has suggested that many Australians stand to be disappointed when they realise just what the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow actually looks like. The Australian Retirement Vision Survey, a report commissioned by State Street and conducted by Rice Warner, has made some startling revelations about the perception many Australians have of life after retirement and the living standards they can expect. Most notable of which perhaps is the finding that six out of 10 Australians believe they will be able to retain the same living standards in retirement. As State Street head of portfolio strategy Asia Pacific Jonathan Shead points out, the reality is significantly less. Mr Shead told The Sydney Morning Herald, Many people expected their post-retirement income to be as high as $982 a week, which is significantly higher than the $767 a week a week that the Association of Super Funds of Australia calculates as the standard required for a comfortable lifestyle and more than double the ASFA standard of $443 a week to fund a modest lifestyle. The report has also suggested these Australians are reluctant to seek advice. Mr Shead added, The industry's reputation has taken a battering in the press in recent times deterring some people from seeking out advice, but the evidence clearly shows that most people who have actually received advice find it very worthwhile. The report came from a survey of information involving over 1,200 super fund members and self-managed super fund investors across Australia. It s an interesting time for super in this country, but recent findings have also suggested that some Australians are starting to make the necessary adjustments. In a recent blog post, Equip Super notes figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) which state that in , 25 per cent of people aged over 65 were using their superannuation savings to draw an income in retirement, up from 20 per cent a decade earlier. Equip notes, Of course, we would like to think this trend was solely a product of our great education and advice, but the reality is that superannuation balances have also grown over that period giving more Australians greater choice in how to make best use of their super benefit. What s your take? Do you think Australians are being realistic about their retirement? Has enough information been made for retirees to adequately prepare? Let us know in the comments. Equip manages $7 billion of investments for members working across a wide range of Australian industry sectors. This superannuation fund has been providing strong investment performance and has been a reliable provider of retirement benefits for over 80 years. STATE STREET CORPORATION 10

11 Ming Pao Daily News 油升金跌不合理? 商品市場最近出現兩大奇怪現象, 油價在各大產油國不斷增產下仍升個不停, 相反, 金價在一片利好因素支持下, 卻竟然反覆橫行, 完全失去方向和動力, 不應爆升的期油卻全面爆升 ( 圖 1) 筆者找了些原因, 嘗試為讀者解開這個怪現象, 以及拆解和分析兩大商品後市走勢在 7 月份, 已公布 ( 尚有多國尚未公布包括伊拉克 ) 的共有 6 個產油國增產, 單是沙特阿拉伯, 產油量由之前 1055 桶增加至萬桶, 升幅雖然只有 1.15%, 但實際上, 產油量卻大幅增加 12.3 萬桶另一方面, 上星期五美國油公司公布截止 8 月 19 日的一星期, 石油鑽井數目增加了 10 台至 406 台, 為連續第 8 周增加所以, 有關數據正好反映油市仍然供過於求但油價仍然繼續暴升, 當中主要原因是有油組成員國打算和俄羅斯, 將會在 9 月 26 至 28 日在阿爾及利亞開會研究凍結產量再加上, 俄羅斯似有意揮軍入侵烏克蘭, 令地緣政治局勢緊張, 而且俄羅斯為全球第二大產油國, 所以俄烏戰雲密佈概念上會支持油價油價偷步升 G20 杭州會議後料跌匯市方面, 美元近期因息口問題亦處於弱勢, 所以, 令到油價無視增產利淡等因素而上升但上述只是短期因素, 長遠而言, 油價應該因為供過於求而下跌早前筆者分析紐油會由 50 美元水平會跌至美元水平, 但礙於美國大選在即下, 華爾街高手不會令油價跌破 35 美元來拖累美股下跌, 待美國大選塵埃落定後, 油價才會出現實際跌幅, 今次紐約期油只跌至美元水平便大幅反彈至上周五收市價 49 美元相對強弱指數 14 天顯示已到 67 水平接近 70 超買水平, 上升空間已不多, 再加上方有三大阻力 50 美元美元及美元 ( 圖 2), 以技術分析來判斷, 升勢應接近尾聲基本分析方面, 筆者認為要注意 9 月 4 至 5 日的 G20 國的杭州會議, 因為俄羅斯有可能在此會議後全面攻打烏克蘭, 若真的不幸成為事實, 但油價的升勢已反映下定必借消息獲利回吐而下跌, 然後橫行等待產油國凍產會議相反, 俄烏緊張局勢得以和平解決, 油價回吐壓力更大總結而言, 姑勿論俄烏會否終極一戰, 在油價升勢已偷步下, 始終難逃一跌而至於 9 月尾的凍產會議, 相信最後都是像上一次失敗告終避險資金回流股油金價受壓金市方面, 美國大多經濟數據表現令人失望, 美國 9 月加息無望, 美元轉弱, 再加上俄烏局勢緊張, 金價雖未至於大跌, 但表現令人失望金價仍未爆升, 相信有四個原因, 第一是美國證券及交易委員會的記錄顯示, 索羅斯在第二季大手減持 SPDR 黃金 ETF 另外記錄亦顯示, 索羅斯同時也大手減持了其在 Barrick Gold 的持股量令市場擔心索羅斯是否看淡黃金後市, 及會否觸發其他大戶也跟隨他沽貨離場第二是最近環球股市向好, 尤其是美國股市創新高, 導致投資者將留在金市的避險資金重投股市懷抱, 令金價無力上升第三是油價上升後, 令油價下跌所帶來的危機也大大減輕, 部分避險資金亦因此離開金市流入油市第四是特朗普民調仍然落後希拉里, 最新民意調查顯示特朗普落後希拉里 8 個百分點, 而美國紐約時報綜合各方面調查, 指民主黨希拉里會有 87% 機會勝出, 另方面特朗普競選團隊經理上周五正式請辭, 若特朗普大勢已去, 不安及避險情緒隨之降溫, 亦令金價受壓最終回歸美元因素金價可看高一線 STATE STREET CORPORATION 11

12 金價走勢不管傳統上又或者未來大趨勢, 最終回歸美元因素, 即是與美元背馳, 所以, 若美國短期不可能加息而令美元持續受壓的話, 金價應看高一線最後, 在此作些宣傳, 本人會於 9 月 3 日, 聯同基督教華恩基金會梁麗華女士和劉克華先生, 以及專業人士何崙先生, 舉行慈善投資講座健康與投資, 為內地孤兒籌款, 詳情可登入本公司網站查詢及登記一周投資金句上帝會加倍償還你正確的態度重溫投資 36 計天王國際金融行政總裁盧楚仁主持的明報財經節目投資 36 計, 與讀者分享專業投資心得與策略, 如欲重溫各集內容, 可登入 :link.mingpao.com/39663.htm 盧楚仁天王國際金融行政總裁 STATE STREET CORPORATION 12

13 Hong Kong Economic Journal 銀巿帶動金價轉弱時正三伏天, 西方稱之為夏季狗日 ( 緣於天狼星與太陽同時升起 ) 過往金市在這段時期大多是處於夏日低迷狀態, 今年有別於往年, 在近兩年的偏高位區上落徘徊多國中央銀行行長本周將在避暑勝地美國懷俄明州的 Jackson Hole 舉行會議, 聯儲局主席耶倫的講話受到關注在此前夕, 美元價持續回軟後略告回穩, 而金市維持窄幅上落, 銀市則呈連續三周回落上周金市多次上試回揚, 惟再受制於 1358 元 ( 美元. 下同 ) 阻力, 周末以元的周內偏低價收市銀市上周高位止步於 20.1 元, 周末更回落到元收市, 距離近七周高位徘徊區的底部 19.2 元不遠金銀兩市今年上半年反覆上升, 有別於往年的季節性規律這個差別是否繼續維持下去, 即下半年反告回落? 還是回復以往規律, 即下半年表現會更好呢? 相信很快會有答案投資需求呈遞減象本欄曾指出, 金銀兩市中長線走勢在技術上回復上升, 基本因素似未全面配合以金市為例, 今年上半年主力是靠投資需求的支持, 最根本的金飾消費需求反告跌近兩成黃金投資需求冒起, 其中一個原因是全球經濟前景不明, 部分資金以黃金作為避險工具另外原因是全球利率處於零的上下水平, 而美國再加息步伐一再停滯, 遂使黃金成為較好的投資工具 ( 請參閱上期所列的數據 ) 此外, 看好金價的分析者認為, 稍後美元價會大跌, 全球將出現滯脹局面, 金市可持續看好情況是否如此演變, 很大程度要看聯儲局對全球經濟的看法, 以及其利率政策, 故耶倫即將發表的講話值得留意截至目前的種種跡象顯示, 美國經濟表現並非太差, 聯儲局無意掉過頭來再施行量寬手段, 將繼續其貨幣政策正常化的路向耶倫即將的講話, 料會加強這方面的訊息若真如此, 美國貨幣政策將與其他國家背道而馳, 因此很難想像美元價會大跌美國實質利率會再下降此外, 美國貨幣供應的流動速率仍向下滑, 真不明白惡性通脹何以會產生事實上, 最近黃金投資需求已告放緩, 上周五 SPDR 持金量為噸, 已從上月高峰噸呈現遞減跡象金甲蟲指數見頂回落再者, 帶動金價從低谷回升的金甲蟲指數, 上周已有見頂回落的跡象還有, 金銀兩市的投機熱度有所冷卻, 未平倉合約量均從上月高峰明顯減降, 淨倉數量也在遞減這表示牛熊兩巨人均再無加賭注, 反有溫和的平倉行動最後, 最近金價回復與美元價呈反向的走勢, 但上周美元曾明顯下跌而金價升幅只輕微, 稍後美元若回穩, 恐對金價帶來壓力金價與美國 10 年債價仍一直維持同向關係, 上周後者的收市價已跌穿近個多月徘徊區底部, 而孳息率相應地回升到 1.58 厘水平, 恐對金價不利 STATE STREET CORPORATION 13

14 中長線市勢通常是銀市帶動金市如今銀市考驗近個多月來的高位徘徊區底部 19.2 元的支持, 若然跌穿, 一個頭部便可以認定銀價可能回跌至 18.3 甚或 18 元水平 ; 回升阻力則在 19.6 及 19.8 元動向指數顯示, 熊方正重奪控制權金市恐受銀市帶動而轉弱, 回升阻力由 1358 元下移到 1350 元目前主要支持在 1330 元, 此位若不支, 金價會向下考驗近月徘徊區的底部 1312 元今明兩周金銀市勢演變, 料對下半年走勢取向頗有影響, 宜留意之 # 石林 # 理財投資 # 金與銀 - 銀巿帶動金價轉弱 STATE STREET CORPORATION 14

15 Money Times 迫升近日港股一升再升, 有謂是深股通帶挈, 但係人都知要通都要幾個月後, 今時就炒定, 早唔早個升是被 : 息迫出來的何解? 筆者看, 這自 2008 雷曼爆破以來, 由美國大手減息起至今, 環球央行已減了 666 次息, 歐日逾 10 個國家已達負息, 這是中外經濟史上鮮有見過的事, 一如投資者去火星買股, 點炒? 基本分析投資 / 投機者一定認為, 零息至負息, 一定不妥, 債券因息太低, 而被推至泡沫價, 只要息率一回升至以前的正常水平, 環球債市必爆煲, 所以美國的新舊債王都叫人, 今時再投資債市要小心, 一些投機界的大佬, 索羅斯羅杰斯 Drukenmiller 麥嘉華, 大行高盛美銀美林花旗, 都叫大家要遠離股市, 高盛更謂三個月後, 美股爆煲不過, 這些投資大佬大行愈唱淡市卻愈升最經典的是, 索羅斯沽貨 ( 蘋果股票 ), 巴菲特卻去接貨然則, 我輩散戶, 應跟索羅斯的沽, 還是巴菲特的買? 先看索羅斯 : 上周公布的美國證交會 13F-HR 備案顯示, 索羅斯基金管理公司當季減持了 PayPal 獅門娛樂等公司股票, 清倉蘋果持股不止如此, 索羅斯還買入了超過 190 萬股 SPDR 標普 500 指數 ETF 看跌期權, 這使其做空股市的籌碼較第一季度翻番為甚麼美股近日卻頻頻見新高, 不俾面索羅斯? 巴克萊銀行有如下分析 : 這波美股買家的手筆包括購買美股指數期貨的央行們回購股票的在美上市公司, 以及力量並不弱的回補的空頭自從 3 月以來, 來自空頭回補的資金多達 600 億美元, 僅從 6 月至今的空頭回補資金就達 260 億美元這意味一些空頭資金認輸離場, 導致做空比率 ( 即當前賣空股數 / 發行股數 ) 下降至近三年最低水平, 約為 2% 從這一點來說, 當前的美股很像是 2007 年股市頂峰的時候當時是金融海嘯爆發前夕, 做空比率僅為剛剛超過 1.6% 一些空頭的投降也意味, 將來只是簡單地通過殺淡倉或者迫使淡友回補來推高股指難度會更大轉變成業績驅動牛市如果以靠殺淡友的倉, 難再推動股市上升, 就只要靠好友大舉入場, 這些好友為何以前住荷包觀望, 如今又要掏錢入市? 有分析認為 : 美儲局加息因素對美股的影響力正在弱化 ( 因加極都唔加 ), 企業盈利好於預期可能進一步提升股市 : 股市正從不加息因素驅動的牛市轉為業績因素驅動的牛市今年企業盈利應該增長, 並在未來數年繼續改善湯森路透數據顯示, 預計標普 500 指數成分股企業第四季盈利將增長 8.3% 的確, 不少投資者都估 2016 年是美儲局加息年, 但迄今大半年, 美儲局一次息都未加過, 年初有中國股市的熔斷日本的負利率, 跟美國 5 月就業新增職位只 3 萬多個,6 月英國脫歐等等每次都帶來各相關央行的放水, 要綁了美儲局加息之手, 使到美儲局成為加息的無牙老虎, 每次美儲局有人講加息, 都賺來噓聲 STATE STREET CORPORATION 15

16 但美儲局真會永不加息嗎? 如果你認為美儲局不會永不加息的話, 就要考慮, 美儲局一旦加息, 金融市場會有多大震動不少央行在買自家債券買到買無可買之時, 就買股票英國政府為應付脫歐, 向市場注水, 買英國債券, 但竟然買不夠額, 原因簡單, 機構投資者 ( 尤其是退休基金 ), 考慮到賣了債券予政府後, 得錢何用? 又不是要改入今時低息的債券? 如要高息, 就要冒較高風險, 划得過嗎? 便索性不賣日本政府早幾年已碰上這問題, 改去買日本股市的 ETF, 不買單隻股票, 免招非議, 買一籃子的 ETF, 就是買大市嘛, 雨露均沾, 看似一視同仁, 但還是大藍籌大企業受惠多, 這些 ETF 成分股的股票便可一升再升由於大藍籌多是指數成分股, 故指數亦可一升再升, 這個升能持多久? 根據彭博彙整央行持有交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的數據, 從中推估, 目前日央行已經位列日經 225 指數當中 81 家上市公司的前五大股東, 上個月日本央行行長黑田東彥把每年購買 ETF 的目標金額增加將近 1 倍, 到明年底料成為 55 家企業的最大股東股市收益更吸引這個曲購買使民企變成國企, 在 2007 年雷曼爆煲後就見過, 美政府買入 AIG 股票, 亦接管了通用汽車這便支持了股市據雅虎財經報道, 美國股市持續上漲, 甚至創出歷史新高, 但企業盈利能力依然疲軟, 部分企業盈利還在不斷收縮為甚麼在企業基本面如此糟糕的情況下, 全球股市還持續上漲呢? 投資事實上就是零和博弈如果你賣出一隻股票, 然後將得到的資金投資到其他品種上, 投資者總會對不同的投資收益進行比較, 結果, 圖二闡述了這一抉擇, 標準普爾 500 指數的股息收益率高於美國 10 年期國債同期收益率大家可以看出, 在過去數十年, 絕大多數 ( 差不多 95%) 的標普 500 指數企業, 其股息收益率都低於 10 年期國債的收益率但在金融危機期間, 情況亂套了, 股市遭遇重創, 但企業並沒有削減分紅, 這意味, 相較之於美國國債, 這些企業的股息收益率出現上升如今債券市場持續走低, 盡管許多市場預言家都認為債市不可能再進一步下滑, 甚至還會很快上漲但 10 年期國債收益率如今已從今年 1 月第一周的 2.24% 跌至 1.55%-- 大幅度下滑在諸如德國和日本等其他國家, 其同期限債券的收益率更低 -- 甚至已經跌為負值與股市相比,1.55% 的美國國債收益率是十分差的標普 500 指數的股息收益率如今在 2.04% 左右, 正是圖二中所反映的那樣, 股票收益超過了 10 年期國債收益率持有股票, 除了獲得的收益率會超過國債還可以因企業上調股息而獲得額外收益, 同時還可以獲得資本利得顯而易見, 投資者會繼續買股票這正是投資者為何蜂擁進入股市的原因之一 : 那麼, 投資者最終會付出慘痛代價嗎? 明續 STATE STREET CORPORATION 16

17 STATE STREET CORPORATION 17

18 Sky Post 逼升近日港股一升再升, 有謂是深港通帶挈, 但係人都知要通都要幾個月後, 今時就炒早唔早是被息匯逼出來的筆者看, 這個升自 2008 年雷曼爆破以來, 由美國大手減息起至今, 環球央行已減了 666 次息, 歐日逾 10 個國家已達負息, 這是中外經濟史上鮮有見過的事, 一如投資者去火星買股, 點炒? 基本分析投資 / 投機者一定認為, 零息至負息, 一定不妥, 債券因息太低, 而被推至泡沫價, 只要息率一回升至以前的正常水平, 環球債市必爆煲, 所以美國的新舊債王都叫人, 今時再投資債市要小心, 一些投機界的大佬, 索羅斯羅杰斯 Drukenmiller 麥嘉華, 大行高盛美銀美林花旗, 都叫大家要遠離股市, 高盛更謂 3 個月後, 美股爆煲不過, 這些投資大佬大行愈唱淡市卻愈升最經典的是, 索羅斯沽貨 ( 蘋果股票 ), 巴菲特卻去接貨然則, 我輩散戶, 應跟索羅斯的沽, 還是巴菲特的買? 債券買無可無轉投股市懷抱先看索羅斯 : 上周公布的美國證交會 13F-HR 備案顯示, 索羅斯基金管理公司當季減持了 PayPal 獅門娛樂等公司股票, 清倉蘋果持股不止如此, 索羅斯還買入了超過 190 萬股 SPDR 標普 500 指數 ETF 看跌期權, 這使其做空股市的籌碼較第 1 季度翻一番為甚麼美股近日卻頻頻見新高, 不畀面索羅斯? 巴克萊銀行有如下分析..這波美股買家的手筆包括購買美股指數期貨的央行們回購股票的在美上市公司, 以及力量並不弱的回補的空頭自從 3 月以來, 來自空頭回補的資金多達 600 億美元, 僅從 6 月至今的空頭回補資金就達 260 億美元這意味一些空頭資金認輸離場, 導致做空比率 ( 即當前賣空股數 / 發行股數 ) 下降至近 3 年最低水平, 約為 2% 從這一點來說, 當前的美股很像是 2007 年股市頂峰的時候當時是金融海嘯爆發前夕, 做空比率僅為剛剛超過 1.6% 一些空頭的投降也意味, 將來只是簡單地通過殺淡倉或者迫使淡友回補來推高股指難度會更大如果以靠殺淡友的倉, 難再推動股市上升, 就只有靠好友大舉入場, 這些好友為何以前撳住荷包觀望, 如今又要掏錢入市? 有分析認為..美儲局加息因素對美股的影響力正在弱化 ( 因加極都唔加 ), 企業盈利好於預期可能進一步提升股市..股市正從不加息因素驅動的牛市轉為業績因素驅動的牛市今年企業盈利應該增長, 並在未來數年繼續改善湯森路透數據顯示, 預計標普 500 指數成分股企業第 4 季盈利將增長 8.3% 的確, 不少投資者都估 2016 年是美儲局加息年, 但迄今大半年, 美儲局一次息都未加過, 年初有中國股市的熔斷日本的負利率, 跟美國 5 月就業新增職位只 3 萬多個,6 月英國脫歐等等每次都帶來各相關央行的放水, 要綁了美儲局加息之手, 使到美儲局成為加息的無牙老虎, 每次美儲局有人講加息, 都賺來噓聲但美儲局真會永不加息嗎? 如果你認為美儲局不會永不加息的話, 就要考慮, 美儲局一旦加息, 金融市場會有多大震動不少央行在買自家債券買到買無可買之時, 就買股票 STATE STREET CORPORATION 18

19 英國政府為應付脫歐, 向市場注水, 買英國債券, 但竟然買不夠額, 原因簡單, 機構投資者 ( 尤其是退休基金 ), 考慮到賣了債券予政府後, 得錢何用? 又不是要改入今時低息的債券? 如要高息, 就要冒較高風險, 划得過嗎? 便索性不賣日本政府早幾年已碰上這問題, 改去買日本股市的 ETF, 不買單隻股票, 免招非議, 買一籃子的 ETF, 就是買大市嘛, 雨露均沾, 看似一視同仁, 但還是大藍籌大企業受惠多, 這些 ETF 成分股的股票便可一升再升由於大藍籌多是指數成分股, 故指數亦可一升再升, 這個升能持多久? 日央行掃 ETF 民企變國企根據彭博彙整央行持有交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的數據, 從中推估, 目前日央行已經位列日經 225 指數當中 81 家上市公司的前 5 大股東, 上個月日本央行行長黑田東彥把每年購買 ETF 的目標金額增加將近 1 倍, 到明年底料成為 55 家企業的最大股東這個曲購買使民企變成國企, 在 2007 年雷曼爆煲後就見過, 美政府買入 AIG 股票, 亦接管了通用汽車這便支持了股市據雅虎財經報道, 美國股市持續上漲, 甚至創出歷史新高, 但企業盈利能力依然疲軟, 部分企業盈利還在不斷收縮為甚麼在企業基本面如此糟糕的情況下, 全球股市還持續上漲呢? 投資事實上就是零和博弈如果你賣出一隻股票, 然後將得到的資金投資到其他品種上, 投資者總會對不同的投資收益進行比較, 結果, 圖二闡述了這一抉擇, 標準普爾 500 指數的股息收益率高於美國 10 年期國債同期收益率大家可以看出, 在過去數十年, 絕大多數 ( 差不多 95%) 的標普 500 指數企業, 其股息收益率都低於 10 年期國債的收益率但在金融危機期間, 情況亂套了, 股市遭遇重創, 但企業並沒有削減分紅, 這意味, 相較之於美國國債, 這些企業的股息收益率出現上升如今債券市場持續走低, 盡管許多市場預言家都認為債市不可能再進一步下滑, 甚至還會很快上漲但 10 年期國債收益率如今已從今年 1 月第一周的 2.24% 跌至 1.55% 大幅度下滑在諸如德國和日本等其他國家, 其同期限債券的收益率更低甚至已經跌為負值與股市相比,1.55% 的美國國債收益率是十分差的標普 500 指數的股息收益率如今在 2.04% 左右, 正是圖二中所反映的那樣, 股票收益超過了 10 年期國債收益率持有股票, 除了獲得的收益率會超過國債還可以因企業上調股息而獲得額外收益, 同時還可以獲得資本利得顯而易見, 投資者會繼續買股票這正是投資者為何蜂擁進入股市的原因之一..那麼, 投資者最終會付出慘痛代價嗎? 明續 STATE STREET CORPORATION 19

20 Oriental Daily News 港股 3 周累漲千點沽空率逼 15% 港股整固, 恒指昨跌 85 點, 失守兩萬三關不過, 恒指已連續三周上揚, 八月至今累漲 1,045 點或 4.77%, 國指累漲 647 點或 7.22%, 跑贏全球股市不過, 多個現象預示港股或要抖氣, 包括恒指已出現四連陰先高後低走勢 ; 港股沽空額連續六個交易日超過 100 億元, 昨沽空比率達 14.98%, 為六月廿四日後最高等而下周一市調機制推出將成市場焦點港股周五雖然回軟, 但全周計繼續做好 ( 黃知樂攝 ) 滬綜兩連揚周升 1.8% 中國股市方面, 滬綜指昨早段曾低見 3,082 點, 臨近尾市抽高, 全日收報 3,108 點, 升 0.13%, 全周累漲 1.88%, 為連續兩周上揚深成指則全日微跌 0.06%, 收報 10,872 點, 全周累漲 3.27%, 為連續第三周上揚昨日滬深兩市成交額萎縮至 5,365 億元人民幣滬股通連續第十一個交易日錄得資金淨流入, 昨日淨買入 6.14 億元人民幣至於港股, 昨日恒指高開 130 點, 高見 23,153 點後, 曾倒跌 147 點, 全日跌幅縮窄至 85 點, 收報 22,937 點國指收報 9,606 點, 跌 48 點, 港股總成交 765 億元全周計, 恒指及國指分別累漲 170 點及 51 點, 雙雙為連續三周上揚港股沽空額億元, 沽空比率增至 14.98%, 當中盈富基金 (02800) 沽空額約億元, 過去十九個交易日中, 第十七次居沽空榜首位, 沽空比率達 42.43%, 為連續六個交易日逾四成本報統計顯示, 單是過去五個交易日, 八月份恒指期貨未平倉合約增加 16,673 張, 八月份國指期貨於過去三個交易日增加 10,416 張未平倉合約濠賭煤炭股跌幅大昨日下跌股份有 894 隻, 較上漲股份 636 隻為多, 濠賭股及煤炭股為重災區, 永利澳門 (01128) 急插 5.69%, 金沙中國 (01928) 挫 4.08%, 美高梅中國 (02282) 下跌 2.84% 此外, 兗煤 (01171) 跌 4.77% 港股美國預託證券 (ADR) 周五早段偏軟, 中移 (00941) 報元, 較港低元 ; 騰訊 (00700) 報元, 低元, 按比例相當恒指下跌 88 點騰祺基金管理投資管理董事沈慶洪表示, 下周港股或有輕微調整, 料十天線 22,700 點有支持下周推出市調機制, 由於初期只涵蓋恒指及國指成分股等大價股, 較難短時間內暴漲暴跌, 故相信對大市影響不大第一上海證券首席策略師葉尚志指, 港股下周或反覆, 月底期指結算, 料好友會力托於近 23,000 點結算 STATE STREET CORPORATION 20

21 Hong Kong Economic Journal 市況概覽大市 / 指數表現隔晚美股造好, 接近高位收市港股周五開市跟隨美股走勢, 高開 130 點, 最高升至點, 其後反覆向下, 收市倒跌 85 點 (0.4%), 失守點關口, 報點, 成交金額億元整體 1900 多隻港股的升跌比例為 , 即下跌股份比例多於一半市寬表現方面,3 天線高於 18 天線股價高於 50 天線及股價高於 250 天線比率分別為 60.4%( 跌 1 個百分點 ) 61.2%( 跌 0.6 個百分點 ) 46.8%( 跌 0.4 個百分點 ), 三線市寬皆向下板塊分析 25 個板塊中有 15 個錄得下跌, 跌幅介乎 -0.12% 至 -2.59%, 當中 13 個板塊跑輸恒指煤炭股為周五表現最差板塊, 摩根士丹利發表報告指出, 發改委調整煤炭限產政策, 對煤企造成負面影響中國神華 (01088) 收市報元, 跌 0.62 元 (4.31%); 兗州煤 (01171) 及中煤能源 (01898) 分別挫 4.77% 及 4.3% 沽空 / 淡倉港股全日沽空金額億元, 連續 6 個交易日過百億, 另有約萬元人民幣沽空大市沽空比率 14.98%, 較上日上升約 2.14 個百分點, 為 6 月 24 日英國公投決定脫歐以來逾一個半月新高個股方面, 盈富基金 (02800) 全日沽空金額居首, 金額億元, 沽空比率 42.4% 第二及第三位分別是中國平安 (02318) 及建設銀行 (00939), 沽空金額 ( 和比率 ) 分別為 8.53 億元 (33.2%) 和 5.99 億元 (25.1%) 個股短評聯通 (00762) 以大成交突破 250 天線, 表現跑贏恒指, 有機會挑戰約 10.3 元水平阻力參考 EJFQ.com FA+ 資料, 綜合 21 位分析員預測, 其 2016 年及 2017 年的每股盈利按年增長分別為 -40.1% 及 43%, 預測巿賬率為 0.8 倍, 估值便宜衍生市場表現從周四收市後的數據來看, 最新牛熊證街貨比例為 65:35, 維持失衡狀態, 且近價熊證明顯較多恒指牛熊證窩輪最痛指標最低點範圍在至點, 最低點為點恒指窩輪錄得 687 萬元資金淨流出, 恒指牛熊證亦錄得 5017 萬元資金淨流出 ; 整體資金淨流出反映散戶傾向淡倉部署石油尼日利亞石油部長卡奇庫表示, 石油出口國組織 (OPEC) 不太可能減產, 但下月在阿爾及利亞召開的產油國會議可望支撐油價被問及 OPEC 成員國會否作出新的行動以達成凍產協議時, 他稱若該國跟俄羅斯美國和墨西哥成功進行溝通, 將會提振油價截至周五下午 5 時, 紐約期油報 48 美元異動股 STATE STREET CORPORATION 21

22 周五 10 隻異動股中, 有 6 隻股份股價上升, 當中 3 隻股份升幅達雙位數隆控股 (08021) 復牌, 並公布其全資附屬公司旗下的 Favourite Number 向樂亞國際 (08195) 提出要約, 以每 400 股樂亞股份可獲 57 股隆新股及現金 5.6 元隆控股收市報元, 跌元 (31.7%) 市場觀點美國三藩市聯儲銀行總裁威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 認為, 以目前美國經濟狀況,9 月加息合理, 因為低息維持過久或會帶來高昂代價, 經濟可能過熱局方已實現第一個目標充分就業 ; 第二個目標通脹率 2% 亦接近達成信報投資分析部 # 信析趨勢市況概覽 STATE STREET CORPORATION 22

Microsoft PowerPoint - ~6631638.ppt

Microsoft PowerPoint - ~6631638.ppt Fixed Income 1 Why Investing in bonds? 2 CPY Fixed Income Department Overview Professional and experienced team Top-notch client-focused services Offering diversified fixed income products Unique short