Microsoft PowerPoint - Presentation Michael IETA Feb 2013 V5.pptx

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1 Introduction and experience sharing of Phase I, II and III allocation plan of EU ETS Michael MEI Alstom 2012

2 四大主营业务在全球范围内位列行业前三甲 Alstom: Four main activities in top 3 in its main activities 轨道交通基础设施 Rail transport infrastructure 全球每四辆地铁列车 / 有轨电车中就有一辆由阿尔斯通制造 Alstom makes 1 metro in 4 and 1 tram in 4 发电基础设施 Power generation infrastructure 阿尔斯通为全球发电总装机量的 25% 提供主要设备 Alstom supplies major equipment for 25% of the worldwide Installed power generation capacity and. 输电基础设施 Power transmission infrastructure 在关键市场及技术方面表现强劲 ( 隔离开关 气体绝缘组合电器气体绝缘组合电器 高压直流输电等 ) Leadership in key markets and fast-growing technologies (disconnectors, GIS, HVDC ) 占全球水电市场 25% 的市场份额.it holds 25% of hydro electricity market

3 阿尔斯通电力 : 技术适用于所有能源形式 Alstom Power:Technologies adapted to all energy sources 燃气 Gas 水电 Hydro 燃油 Oil Oil 电厂全周期管理 Life Cycle Management 核能 ( 常规岛 ) Nuclear (Conv.Island) 燃煤 Coal 风能 Wind 地热能 Geothermal 生物质能 Biomass 太阳能 Solar

4 电力 : 最全面的产品线 Alstom Power:The largest portfolio for integrated power solutions 轮机 ( 汽轮机, 蒸汽轮机, 水轮机 ) Turbine (gas, steam, hydro) 仪表及监控设备 Instrumentation and monitoring 锅炉 Boilers 发电机 Generators 空气质量控制系统 Air quality control systems 水电 Hydro 风电 Wind

5 火力发电的性能不断得以提升 Continuous performance improvements - Steam power plants PC* Supercritical 煤粉炉, 超临界 PC* Subcritical 煤粉炉, 亚临界 Oil-fired 燃油电厂 CFB* Supercritical 循环硫化床锅炉, 超临界 CFB* Subcritical 循环硫化床, 亚临界 * PC: Pulverized Coal ** CFB: Circulating Fluidized Bed MW MW MW MW MW MW Coal-fired power plant 燃煤电厂 煤 Coal 燃烧系统 Combustion system 除尘 Dust collector 锅炉 Boiler 脱硫 Desulphurisation system 脱硝 Denitrification system 汽轮机和发电机 Steam turbine and Turbogenerator Shoaiba I, II & III, 14 x 400 MW, Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯项目 ( 共三期 )

6 联合循环电厂的性能不断得以提升 Continuous performance improvements - Combined cycle plants GT26 GT24 GT13E2 GT11N2 50 Hz 60 Hz 60 & 50 Hz 296 MW 194 MW 185 MW 115 MW 控制系统 Control Systems 蒸汽轮机 Steam Turbine 余热锅炉 HRSG 燃气轮机 Gas Turbine 现有电厂的经验总结 Fleet Experience From Daily starts and stops to base load operation 从每天的开机停机, 到最低负荷运转 Natural gas (also high inert/c2+), oil with online switchover 天然气 燃油两种不同燃料可以实现在开机状态下的转换 汽轮发电机 Power Augmentation (Air Inlet cooling) Turbogenerator 通过优化汽轮机的设计, 可以提高出力并减少排放 增加电厂出力 ( 空冷 ) Advanced turbine design concepts to increase efficiency and reduce emissions 51 x GT24, 86 x GT26 ordered, >4.0 Mio. fired hours with > starts

7 阿尔斯通的碳捕集与封存技术 Alstom CO 2 capture technologies 装有二氧化碳捕集与封存设备的电厂 Power Plant with CO 2 capture Post-combustion 燃烧后捕集 (New + retrofit) 适用于新建和已有电厂翻新 Oxy-combustion 富氧燃烧 (New + retrofit) 适用于新建和已有电厂翻新 Pre-combustion 燃烧前捕集 (New only) 只适用于新建电厂 Source: Vattenfall 阿尔斯通目前专注的两种技术 Solutions developed by Alstom 碳捕集与封存技术必须运用到现有电厂中 CCS can also be applied to the installed base

8 Alstom Activity on Pilots & Demonstrations 1st and 2nd Generation CCS Completed TESTS COMPLETE OPERATING COMMISSIONING LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS (under development) NER300 NER300 AEP Mountaineer USA 58 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Coal Vattenfall Schwarze Pumpe, Germany 30 MWth, Oxy - Lignite TCM Mongstad Norway 40 MWth, Chilled Ammonia, CHP & Refinery Offgas (RCC) OPERATING EDF Le Havre France - 5 MWth Adv. Adv. Amines - Coal PGE Belchatow Poland MWe Adv.Amines - Lignite White Rose CCS Project UK MWe Oxy Hardcoal NER300 EoN Karlshamn Sweden - 5 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Fuel Total Lacq France - 30 MWth Oxy - Gas Alstom GPU Pilot (Mobile) 0.3 MWth Funded by the Norwegian Government Getica - CET Turceni Romania - >250 MWe Chilled Ammonia-Lignite Datang - China Oxy 350 MWe lignite, Post 350 MWe eq. Coal Selected for receiving EEPR funding WE - Energie USA WI - 5 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Coal Alstom BSF Windsor US - 15 MWth Oxy - Coals Alstom Labs Växjö Sweden 0.25 MWth Post C.-multi purpose NER300 Applied for EU ETS New Entrant Reserve funding 2nd Gen 2nd Gen CCM Mongstad (Gas Turbine based CHP) Norway 280 MWe M Wth Chilled Ammonia DOW Chemical Co. USA, WV Adv. Amines - Coal DOE/Alstom Windsor US - 3 MWth Chemical Looping, Coal RFCS EU - Darmstadt Germany - 1 MWth Chemical Looping - Coal

9 交通运输 广泛的产品及服务 Alstom Transport - An extensive range of products and services 行驶距离 DISTANCE 列车 : 从有轨电车到超高速列车 Rolling stock: from trams to very high speed 机车 Locomotives 超高速列车 Very high speed 地铁 Metro 城际列车有轨电车 - 列 Interurban 车 Tram-Train 地区列车 Regional 高速列车 High speed 有轨电车 Tram 速度 SPEED

10 AGV 世界上速度最快的列车 AGV World Record HS Trains image To be inserted

11 交通运输 : 技术领先的产品 Alstom Transport:Technologically leading products ERTMS Revolution in interoperable drive systems 创新的 互联互通 列车驾驶系统 Integrated control centres 集成控制中心 Global monitoring of complex transport systems 对复杂交通系统的综合监控 APS Tram powered from ground level 有轨电车的第三轨供电系统 AGV (350 km/h) 超高速列车 Fourth generation very high speed train 第四代超高速列车

12 电网业务 - 十条主要产品线 (1/2) Alstom Grid - Organised in 10 main Product Lines (1/2) 变压器 POWER TRANSFORMERS More than 130,000 MVA 全球产能超过 130,000MVA 1,000 transformers per year 年产量超过 1,000 台 World s largest electric arc furnace transformer 世界上最大的电弧炉变压器 互感器 INSTRUMENT TRANSFORMERS More than 200,000 equipments 已有 200,000 台投入运行 Compact Optical Sensor Intelligence 小型光学传感器 断路器 CIRCUIT BREAKERS Over 80,000 equipments 已有 80,000 台投入运行 8,000 solutions per year 每年提供 8000 个解决方案 Top three suppliers with Live Tank, Dead Tank and compact modules 全球立式 罐式和敞开式断路器的前三位供应商之一 气体绝缘变电站及母线 GAS-INSULATED SUBSTATIONS & LINES (GIS & GIL) 2,000 substations GIS 2000 个气体绝缘变电站 Over 150 km single-phase GIL 累计生产单相气体绝缘母线超过 150 公里 Fivefold size decrease 五倍减少整体空间 SF 6 reduction 减少六氟化硫排放 隔离开关 DISCONNECTORS N 1 manufacturer 世界上规模最大的隔离开关生产商 Over 140,000 units in more than 130 countries 为 130 个国家提供了超过 140,000 台机组

13 电网业务 - 十条主要产品线 (2/2) Alstom Grid -Organised in 10 main Product Lines (2/2) 电子自动化 POWER ELECTRONICS ACTIVITIES One of the leaders in HVDC (high voltage direct current) to transmit large quantities of electricity over very long distances 特高压直流输电的领先者之一 Specialist in Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) 柔性交流输电专家 交流变电站 ( 最高 1200KV) AC SUBSTATIONS (up to 1200 kv) Air/Gas-insulated switchgear 空气 / 气体绝缘组合开关站 Offshore and onshore wind farms 海上和陆上风场 Turnkey high voltage substations 高压变电站系统总承包 Grid interconnection for all types of generation 各种能源发电的并网 电网管理 NETWORK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS Worldwide leader in Energy Management Systems 能源管理系统领先世界 Market Management Systems 电力市场管理系统 Distributed Management Systems (DMS) 配电管理系统 变电站自动化解决方案 SUBSTATION AUTOMATION SOLUTIONS MiCOM IED (Intelligent Electric Device) 智能电子设备 Conventional and Digital Control Systems (PACiS) 传统及数字化控制系统 服务 SERVICES From network design to asset evolution 从电网设计到现有电网升级 From project to long-term partnerships 从单独项目的执行到长期的合作项目 From emergency to predictive maintenance 从应急服务到预防性维护

14 电网业务 全球领军并时刻准备以满足市场需求 Alstom Grid - Global Leadership and Ready to address the market needs 位列业界榜首的领域 No. 1 in Network Management Solutions 网络管理 Market Management Systems 市场管理 Disconnectors 隔离开关 Digital Instrument Transformers 数字互感器 Rectifier-based power solutions for aluminium electrolysis processes 电解铝电厂改造 占业界领先位置的领域 Leadership in Air-insulated substations & gas-insulated substations 空气绝缘开关站和气体绝缘开关站 HVDC 高压直流输电 FACTS 柔性交流输电 Smart Grid technologies 智能电网技术 Substations for offshore wind farms in Europe 为欧洲的海上风场提供开关站

15 电力在中国的主要业绩 Alstom Main References - Power in China Three Gorges/ 三峡 POWER TURBO EQUIPMENT 汽轮机 / 水轮机 平圩三期 Pingwei III (Anhui), 2x1080MW, Mar. 12 哈密 Hami (Xinjiang), 2x660MW, Dec. 11 神头 Shentou (shanxi), 2 x 600 MW, Mar. 10 贵溪 Guixi (Jiangxi), 2 x 600 MW, SC WCC, Jun. 08 平凉 Pingliang 2 (Gansu), 2 x 600 MW STG SC 平圩二期 / 大别山 Pingwei II (Anhui)/Dabieshan (Henan), 4 x 600 MW STG SC 龙山 Longshan (Hebei), 2 x 600 MW STG HYDRO POWER 水电 观音岩 Guanyinyan (3 x 600MW), Dec. 10 向家坝 Xiangjiaba (4 x 800 MW), Aug. 08 梨园 Liyuan (4x660MV hydro generators and its auxiliary equipment) 三峡 Three Gorges Underground, Right & Left Banks (14x700 MW) 宝泉 / 惠州 / 白莲河 Baoquan/Huizhou/Balianhe PSP (16 x 306 MW) 小湾 Xiaowan (6 x 780 MVA generators, with HEC) NUCLEAR POWER 核电 Ling Ao/ 岭澳 台山 2 x 1750MW STG for Taishan (EPR) 红沿河 4 x 1000 MW Arabelle STG for Hongyanhe 岭澳 2 x 1000 MW STG for Ling Ao 2 台山 / 昌江 EDG: Taishan, Changjiang 大亚湾 / 岭澳 4 x 1000 MW STG for Daya Bay and Ling Ao BOILERS & ENVIRONMENT CONTROL 锅炉及环境控制系统 鲁能哈密 Luneng Hami, 2 x 300 MW 四川白马 Baima in Sichuan, 300 MW CFB Boiler, China's largest CFB TURNKEY PLANT 交钥匙工程 石洞口 Shidongkou No.2 Power Plant in Shanghai, 2x600 MW SC 合肥 Hefei power plant (Anhui), 2 x 350 MW Boiler 珞璜 Luohuang PP (Chongqing), 4 x 360 MW 外高桥 Waigaoqiao: 2 x 1000 MW USC Boiler 沙角 C Shajiao C (Guangdong), 3 x 660 MW 华能威海 / 华能大连 SWFGD: Huaneng Weihai, Huaneng Dalian 石洞口 Shidongkou No.2 Power Plant (Shanghai), 2x600MW SC

16 交通运输在中国的主要业绩 Alstom Main References - Transport in China MASS TRANSIT RS 城市轨道交通 -- 列车 上海 Total of 1222 cars for Shanghai Metro (Lines 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, XinMin) 南京 Total of 456 cars for Nanjing Metro (Lines 1 & 2) 香港 Over 1400 train sets for Hong Kong MASS TRANSIT TRACTION 城市轨道交通 牵引系统 北京 Beijing: L15, L6 南京 Nanjing: L10 青岛 Qingdao L3 香港 Traction and TCMS for Hong Kong South Island Line MASS TRANSIT SIGNALING (CBTC) 城市轨道交通 信号系统 ( 基于通信的信号系统 ) 北京 Beijing: L2 (revamping, L6, L9 ), Airport link and Fangshan 深圳 Shenzhen: L2 & L5 广州 Guangzhou: L6 上海 Shanghai: L1, L3, L3 North Ext., L4, L10, L12, L13, L16 昆明 Kunming: L1 & L2 ph1 宁波 Ningbo: L1 无锡 Wuxi L1 武汉 Wuhan: L2 & L4 MAIN LINES 主干线业务 动车组 140 EMUs (200 km/h) with CNR CRC 电力机车 500 CoCo freight locos with CNR Datong 电气化 Electrification Shitai (200km/h) 八轴货运电力机车 180 double axles «Bobo» locos with CNR Datong Eurobalises for MOR

17 电网业务在中国的主要业绩 Alstom Main References - Grid in China Power transformers 变压器 220 kv Nuclear Substation, Lingang, Shanghai 550 kv Daya Bay and LingAo Nuclear Power Plants 内蒙古 Inner Mongolia Daihai 4X600MW Power Plants HVDC & FACTS 高压直流输电和柔性交流输电 宁东 山东高压直流输电项目 Ningdong-Shandong HVDC link 三峡项目高压直流输电工程 ( 葛洲坝 上海 )Three Georges HVDC Project (Gezhou Dam to Shanghai) Circuit Breakers 断路器 柱式断路器 More than 10,000 installations of Live Tank circuit breakers installed in China with zero failures during operations 罐式断路器 Dead Tank for Shanghai Nanqiao Substation 外壳接地断路器 180 MW Generator Circuit Breaker for Shanghai Electric Instrument transformers 互感器 为国网首条 1100kV 交流线路提供套管 Bushing for SGCC s first 1100 kv transmission line 零通量互感器 Zero-flux ITR for SGCC Three Gorges to Shanghai 500 kv HVDC Project 为中国首个离岸风力发电场提供国内第一个高压直流 VSC China s 1st VSC HVDC for the country s 1st offshore wind farm Disconnectors 隔离开关 为甘肃永登变电站和宁夏水洞沟电厂提供 18 台 800kV 隔离开关 18 units of 800 kv Disconnectors installed in Gansu Yongdeng Substation & Shuidonggou Power Plant in Ningxia P17

18 EU ETS Key facts The first and so far the biggest cap and trade systems 11,000 installations 27 EU countries + Croatia + Iceland and Norway Around 45% of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions Potential linkage with other ETS

19 EU ETS : allocation of allowances M From free allocation to full auctioning Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Auctioning Free allowances Auctioning (or sale) New Entrant Reserve Free allowances Power Free allowances Industry Source: CDC Climat

20 EU ETS : Phase 1 ( ) and Phase 2 ( ) Bottom-up All big installations (capacity >25MWh) :electricity, industry yearly monitoring and reporting of CO2 emissions free allowances issued by national governments Must hand in credits at the end of the year covering their CO2 emissions Cap: EU divides EU-cap into an individual cap for the 27 Member States Allocation Member States could choose allocation mechanism Free allocation > 90% in Phase 1 and >95% in Phase 2 Historical emissions used as benchmark Governements had incomplete information contributed to overallocation Free allocation done to minimize impacts for international industries and minimizing loss of competitive power of national industries.

21 Phase 3 ( ) brings significant changes Top-down A single EU wide cap on emissions applies in place of the previous system of 27 national caps. Calculated based on what was needed to achieve the 2020 target of -20% % per annum. Auctioning is the default method for allocating allowances More than 40% allowances auctioned in 2013, share to rise progressively Harmonized allocation rules for free allowances based on EU-wide benchmarks of emissions performance Industrial installations receive free allowances on the basis of benchmarks but must purchase at least 20% of allowances in 2013 rising to 70% in 2020 and 100% in 2027 Operators at risk of carbon leakage will receive allowances for free up to their benchmark

22 Free allocation and auctioning in phase III of the EU ETS Source: French Govt

23 Phase 3: Free allowances allocation process Benchmark stage 1 Product benchmark: 75% 52 product benchmarks One product, one benchmark Benchmarks are based on the average of the best 10% performing installations Alternative method: 25% Heat benchmark (20%) Fuel benchmark (5%) Process emission benchmark (<1%) Source: European Commission

24 Phase 3: Free allowances allocation process Carbon leakage stage 2 Correction factor for Carbon Leakage sectors Higher CO2 costs for companies exposed to carbon leakage Correction factor aims at limiting the loss of competitiveness Source: Climate Economics Chair

25 Cap-setting : current challenges (1) Worsening supply and demand imbalance : a large surplus of allowances is building up because of Overallocation in phase II due to incomplete information of governments Severe recession has altered demand for allowances Full implementation of the new Energy Efficiency Directive will have an impact on the EU ETS Surplus of 950 million allowances already, > 1.4 billion by the end of phase II => will be transferred into phase III Weak price signal Carbon price : -50% in 2011 Reached lowest point in Jan 2013 : 2.9 /t Source: French Govt

26 Cap-setting : current challenges (2) Consequences of the supply/demand imbalance : Less incentive for low carbon innovation Reduced government revenue from auctioning, reducing public funds available for climate purposes Currently debating short-term and longer-term solutions in the EU Risk : create additional regulatory uncertainty, deterring investment and destabilizing market For the long term (after 2020) : a reflexion is needed on capsetting and governance Source: French Govt

27 Lessons learnt Overallocation in Phase 1 12 ECX CFI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume V O L U M E ( m i l l i o n to n n e s C O 2 ) P r i c e p e r to n n e (E U R ) Strong lobby from industrial companies for generous free allocation resulted in overallocation for industry Price decrease Price volatility Revised allocations of especially the new-ms Inter-phase banking of allowances introduced from 2008 Total Volume Dec07 Sett Dec08 Sett /09 /2 007 Source: CE Delft

28 Lessons learnt Allocation of free allowances should reflect actual economic conditions Plants receive free allowances based on their historical production, but market conditions are different Plant A Plant B Plant C Demand Production vs. ref. period = = Emissions Adjustment factor 100% 50% 100% for FA Free allocations Higher carbon costs than Plant B Incentive to over produce

29 Lesson learnt Oversupply and cap inflexibility Phase 2 (and Phase 3) suffered from the oversupply created by the economic crisis Backloading proposal from the EU Commission Structural measures of the EU ETS to be discussed Permanent Adjustment Mechanism? Flexible cap?

30 Conclusion The European Commission and Member States have accrued considerable experience in implementing the ETS but are faced with new challenges Challenge: find the right balance between improvement vs predictability / regulatory stability Fund from auctioning should be used on climate change, such as supporting the new low carbon tech and demo projects. Importing factor to make the new tech fly (In EUETS, - 50% minimum must go towards climate change related purposes (mitigation or adaptation, domestic or international, R&D etc.)

31