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1 (Ельцин Борис Николаевич; Yel'tsin Boris Nikolaevich) (Путин Владимир Владимирович; Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich)

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5 (research approach) (research method) 1 1 ( 1990), p. 98 5

6 (state system level of analysis) 2 (strategic triangle politics approach) (Kremlin politics approach) () (actors ) ( ) 3 (bi-polar) (triangle) (multi-polar) (bourgeois democracy) (proletarian dictatorship) (bilateral relationships) (strategic salience) (Lowell Dittmer) (value) (balance) ( 1-1) 2 John W. Spanier, Games Nations Play : Analyzing International Politics (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston/Praeger, 1978), p Howard H. Lentner ( 1979)pp Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), p William G Hyland, The Sino-Soviet Conflict: Dilemmas of the Strategic Triangle, in Richard H. Solomon ed., The China Factor: Sino- American Relations and the Global Scene (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1981), p

7 1-1 BALANCE Symmetrical Asymmetrical VALUE Positive Negative (power ratio) (symmetry) (marginal affect) 6 (uncertainty) (unstability) 7 (transaction game) 8 (ménage à trois) (romantic triangle) (pivot) (stable marriage) 6 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), pp Gerald Segal, The Great Power Triangle (Hong Kong: The Macmillan Press, 1982), pp Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), p

8 9 (unit veto) (Theodore Caplow) (Georg Simmel) (Theodore Caplow) ( ) ( ) 9 Lowell Dittmer, "The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis," in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), pp Theodore Caplow ( 1986), pp

9 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () (Kremlin politics approach) (decision-making level) 11 (Kremlin Politics) 11 ( 1990), p

10 (Андрей Козырев; Andrei Kozyrev) (Евгений М. Примаков; Yevgeniy M. Primakov) George W. Breslauer, Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982); 8, 2 (Dec 2000): John Spanier, Games Nations Play (Washington D. C.: C.Q. Press, 1987), p Alexei G. Arbatov, Russia s Foreign Policy Alternatives, International Security 18, 2 (Fall 1993): Mark Galeotti, The Age of Anxiety: Security and politics in soviet and Post-Soviet Russia (New York: Longman, 1995), p ( 1994), p

11 () (Documents Analysis Method) (1) (2) 19 (3) (primary sources) (secondary sources) () (Historical Method) ( 1990), p ( 2000), pp ( 1987), p ( 1994), p

12 () (Joseph S. Nye Jr.) (The Paradox of American Power: Why the World s only Superpower can t go it alone) 21 Эдуард Баталов ( ; Yeduard Batalov) Виктор Кременюк ( ; Viktor Kremenyuk) (Независимая газета; Nezavisimaya gazeta) (Россия и США: ДрузьяСоперники Партнеры; Rossiya i SHA: Druz yasopernikipartnery) (James Carney) (Times) (Our New Best Friend) Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World s only Superpower can t go it alone (New York: Oxford University, 2002). 22 Эдуард Баталов и Виктор Кременюк [ ; Yeduard Batalov i Viktor Kremenyuk], Россия и США: Друзья? Соперники? Партнеры? [ : ; Rossiya i SHA: Druz yasopernikipartnery] Независимая газета [ Nezavisimaya gazeta], 6 Oct 2001, p James Carney, Our New Best Friend? Times (27 May 2002):

13 James Carney (The Economist) To Russia for Love 25 (William Safire) (New York Times) (Putin s China Card) 爲 ( 2002), pp To Russia for Love, The Economist (18-24 May 2002): William Safire, Putin s China Card, New York Times, 18 Jun 2001, p. A ( 13

14 Bobo Lo (Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy) 28 Bobo Lo 911 () (Иванов Игорь Сергеевич; Ivanov Igor Sergeyevich) (Новая Российская Дипломатия; Novaya Rossiyskaya Diplomatiya) 29 迹 ), p Bobo Lo, Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy (Blackwell, Sep 2002). 29 Иванов Игорь Сергеевич [ ; Ivanov Igor Sergeyevich], Новая Российская Дипломатия [ ; Novaya Rossiyskaya Diplomatiya] (Москва: Олма-Пресс, 2001). 14

15 (Дмитрий Тренин; Dmitriy Trenin) 1.5 % (The Economist) (Vladimir Putin s Long, Hard Haul) Дмитрий Тренин [ ; Dmitriy Trenin], Внешнеполитические проекты для России, [ ; Vneshnepoliticheskiye proyekty dlya Rossii] Независимая газета [ Nezavisimaya gazeta], 17 Feb 2000, p (2000): (2002): (Jul 2001): Vladimir Putin s Long, Hard Haul, The Economist (18-24 May 2002):

16 (Robert Cottrell) (The Financial Times) 35 (Christian Caryl) (Michael Meyer) Christian Caryl Michael Meyer (Newsweek) (The Bush and Putin Encore) % (Gregory Feifer) (The Moscow Times) Robert Cottrell, Putin's Wager, The Financial Times, 21May 2002, p Christian Caryl and Michael Meyer, The Bush and Putin Encore, Newsweek 139, 20 (2002): Gregory Feifer, Putin's Foreign Policy a Private Affair, The Moscow Times, 2 Apr 2002, p

第二章影響中共與越南關係發展的主要原因

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