國立成功大學數位論文

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1 (EMBA) A Study on Customer Retention And Growth Through Customer Relationship Management -An Electronic Manufacturer Case : :

3 EMB92 06/20/2003 I

4 RFM MODEL 4P : RFM MODEL II

5 ABSTRACT The Persian Gulf War was just over. US impressed everyone with achieving military goals within 1 month. The victory attributed to high tech weapon, successful strategies and calculated tactics. Running a business is similar to engaging a battle. Good quality products are not only factor to gain market, you got to have comprehensive marketing instruments and strategies to dominate the market. Therefore, a marketing manager needs to think about how to acquire and keep customers in the short time and under limited resources. It also means he must figure how to search target, choose target and achieve target in a big pool of customers. The study uses a case from an electronic manufacturer. The firm engages in an export business. The main purpose of the research is to find a cost effective approach for the firm doing international marketing in the era of Internet. The study presents an approach which uses customer database, transaction files and as the target of data mining. Two techniques, RFM models for target selection and statistical analysis for selecting active customer are applied in data mining process. The study shows the proposed methods are very helpful to support the customer relationship management. The results are essential to develop market strategy. Key words: RFM, data base marketing, relationship marketing, marketing, RFM model. III

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20 Marketing Mix Target Market Place Promotion 11

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34 G i = X U c i=1 G i G φ( i j) j µ Gi µ G i ik ik µ ik µ {0,1 } 1 i c 1 k n ik c µ ik = 1} k { 1,2,..., n i= 1 n 0 < µ ik < n } i { 1,2,..., c k =1 25

35 µ ij [ 0,1], i = 1,2,..., N; j = 1,2,..., K k µ ij = 1, i = 1,2,..., N j= 1 N 0 < µ ij < N, j = 1,2,..., K i= 1 m 2 J ( U, X, C) = µ x c m K N j= 1 i= 1 1 < m < µ c µ c ij j ij ij i j j m µ ij xi i= 1 c j µ ij = K j = 1,2,..., K m µ N i= 1 ij 26

36 µ ij µ ij = K i = 1,2,..., N; j = 1,2,..., K 2 xi c j m 1 ( ) x c k = 1 i k 1 < m < d ij ( t 1) = xi c j ( t 1) ; j = 1,2,..., K 1 µ ij ( t) = ; j = 1,2,..., K K 2 d ij ( t 1) m 1 ( ) d ( t 1) k = 1 m µ ij ( t) xi i= 1 c j ( t) = ; j = 1,2,..., K N m µ ( t) K ik N t= 1 ij 2 E( t) = c ( t) c ( t 1) < ε j= 1 j j 27

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38 λ ( λt) λ λ x! x X =1,2,... λ λ λ λ λ µ τ µ µ µ τ τ τ µ τ µ µ τ µ µ λ 29

39 γ α γ 1 αγ λ e λ α γ, Γ( γ ) λ γ, α λ α γ, γ α λ α γ, γ α 2 µ ς β ς 1 βµ µ e µ ς β Γ( ς ) µ ς β µ ς β ς β µ ς β ς β 2 λ µ α β γ ς α β γ ς 30

40 i 1 T Ε[ X T ] = X ( i) N( T ) i= 1 i 1 T 2 Var[ X T ] = ( X ( i) E[ X T ]) N( T ) 1 i= 1 γβ β ς 1 E[ X α, β, γ, ς, T] = [1 ( ) ] α( ς 1) β + T Var[ X α, β, γ, ς, T ] = E[ X α, β, γ, ς, T ] ( E[ X α, β, γ, ς, T ]) β T ( ) β + T ς 1 ] 2 2γ ( γ + 1) β β β β + [ ( ) 2 α ( ς 1) ς 2 ς 2 β + T α β γ ς E[ X E[ X α, β, γ, ς, T α, β, γ, ς, T a b ] ] 1 ( β /( β + T )) ς 1 a = ς 1 1 ( β /( β + Tb )) 31

41 E[ X E[ X T a T b ] ] 1 ( β /( β + T )) ς 1 a = ς 1 1 ( β /( β + Tb )) E[ X T E[ X T c d ] ] 1 ( β /( β + T )) ς 1 c = ς 1 1 ( β /( β + Td )) ς β γ α ( ς 1) E[ X T e = s 1 β 1 ( β /( β + Te )) ] γ α γ ς α β α α β P( τ > T α > β, γ, ς, X β + T ( ) α + T ς F( a, b ; c ; z ς α + T = x, t, T ) = {1 + [( ) γ + ς + x α + t ( t))]} 1 γ + x β + T ( ) α + t ς F( a, b ; c ; z ( t)) 32

42 33 ς γ + + = x a =ς b = ς γ x c y y z + = α β α ) ( 1 α β ))]} ( ; ;, ( ) ( )) ( ; ;, ( ) ( ) [( {1 ),,,,, ( = = < > t z c b a F T T t z c b a F t T t T x T t x X T P x ς γ ς γ β α β β β α ς γ ς ς γ β α τ γ + ς + = x a 2 ς =γ + 2 b = ς γ x c y y z + = β α β ) ( 2 α β 1 1]} ) [( {1 ),,,,, ( = = = > ς γ α α ς γ ς ς γ β α τ x t T x T t x X T P = + Γ + Γ + Γ Γ Γ Γ = 0! ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ; ;, ( n n n z n c n b n a b a c z c b a F θ 2 w σ 2 w σ θ θ

43 2 σ a σ 2 a θ λ µ 2 σ a σ 2 + σ 2 a w E[ θ Z i ] = P1 Z i + (1 P 1) E( θ ) Z Z X Z i i= = 1 X 2 σ a PX = 2 2 σ σ ( w a + ) X E( θ Z1, Z 2,..., Z X ) = PX Z + (1 PX ) E( θ ) 34

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46 Receiver Sender Date Inq. Amount (USD) Order Amount (USD) Item HT NA99 0 D E B NA99 HT E E B HT NA E E B 4P 37

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77 1.Copacino,W.C.(1997) The Value of Customer Retention Logistics Management, pp Shani David, Sujana Chalasani (1992) Exploiting Niches Using Relationship MarketingThe Jouranal of Consumer Marketing,Vol.9, pp Day,G.S.and R.Wensley (1983), Marketing Theory With a Strategy Orientation,Journal of Marketing, pp Evans, Joel R. Richard L. Laskin(1994),The Relationship Marketing Process: A Conceptualization and Application,Industrial Marketing Management, Vol.23, pp Hughes, Arthur M. (1994) Strategic Database Marketing, Chicago Probus Publishing. 7. KalakotaRavi and Marcia Robinson (1999), e-business-roadmap for success Addison-Wesley. 8.Kaymak, U.(2001) Fuzzy target selection using RFM variables, IFSA World Congress and 20th NAFIPS International Conference, Joint 9th, Vol 2, pp Kotler, Philip (1997), Marketing Management, 9 th Edition, Prentice-Hall, Inc Morrison, D.G. and D.C. Schmittlein(1988), Generalizing the NBD 68

78 Model for Customer Purchases:What are the Implications and is is worth the Effort?, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, pp Schmittlein,D.C.,D.G.Morrison and R.Colombo(1987), Counting your customers:who Are They and What Will They Do Next?,Management Science, pp Schmittlein, D.C. and R. A. Peterson(1994), Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application,Marketing Science,Vol.13, pp Schmittlein,D.C. and H.F.Schultz(1998), Transitioning Marketing Communications Into the Twenty-First Century,Journal of Marketing Communications,Vol.4, pp Uncles,M.D. and A.S.C.Ehrenberg(1990), Industrial Buying Behavior.Aviation Fuel Contracts,International Journal of Research in Marketing,Vol.7,pp Berry Michael J. A. Gordon Linoff (1999), Mastering Data Mining: The Art and Science of Customer Relationship Management,Wiley 16. Schmittlen David C. Donald G. Morrison and Richard Colombo, Counting Your CustomersWho Are They And What Will They Do Next,Management Science,Vol Schmittlen David C. and Robert A. Peterson, Customer Base Analysis An Industrial Purchase Process Application, Marketing Science,Vol

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