第 1 期唐磊, 等 : 液化天然气汽车加气站建设投资规划模型及其应用 129 LNG Z = max{ N M 1 + α - n-1 x ni ( - BC ni + n = 1 n+l α - t -n+1 R 11 nti - TI nti - TO nti ) + t = n

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1 39 1 大连海事大学学报 Vol 39 No Journal of Dalian Maritime University Feb 唐磊 1, 谢新连 1, 唐丽敏 1 2, 赵兵 Abstract Taking building cost fixed cost variable cost financing cost tax as well as sales revenue into account an integer model for planning establishment and investment of liquefied natural gas vehicle refueling stations is established to deal with the problems of optimal investing volume and timing so as to build LNG stations in target zones during planning period In light of system optimizing considering the demand unbalance among zones caused by different developing extent the model aims to maximize present value of total revenue and allocate fund com- prehensively Investment program solved via model has different LNG time and field levels and is in accordance with actual status and LNG enterprise fund constraint The model is applied to make investment decision for a company which will establish LNG stations network in Liaoning province and its effect is tested Results of sensitivity analysis shows that the total number of stations built in majority of zones is stable and overall revenue of program and investment timing are sensitive to sales quantity and initial building cost respectively LNG Key words liquefied natural gas LNG vehicle refueling station investment timing investment volume integer planning model LNG 0 F5 A Planning model of liquefied natural gas refueling stations establishment and investment and its application TANG Lei 1 XIE Xin-lian 1 TANG Li-min 1 ZHAO Bing 2 1 Transportation Management College Dalian Maritime University Dalian China 2 Chengda Coastal Industry Dalian Fund Management Company Dalian China LNG 1-2 LNG LNG LNG 2-4 LNG leilei0321@ 126 com xxlian77@ yahoo com

2 第 1 期唐磊, 等 : 液化天然气汽车加气站建设投资规划模型及其应用 129 LNG Z = max{ N M 1 + α - n-1 x ni ( - BC ni + n = 1 n+l α - t -n+1 R 11 nti - TI nti - TO nti ) + t = n LNG N M 1 + α - n-1 x ni Melaina n = 1 12 BC ni ( n+l-1 y n α - t -n+1 S n ) } 1 t t = n LNG t x ni W ti μ ti t N 2 M 2 n = 1 E h + M y h x hi BC hi - M x hi BC hi 0 h = R nti - TI nti - TO nti - y n BC ni S nt - M x ti BC ] 0 2 h T 4 ti 1 x ni = 0 N < n T 2 M 5 T 1 N N + 1 X ni n N 2 M 6 T T = N + L - 1 L Z i M x ni n i 1 BC ni n i R nti TI nti TO nti n i t t + 1 E n y n n 1 2 Fig 1 Program building period cash flow BC ni Q nti R nti FC ni AVC ni 3 TI nti TO nti 7 13 BC ni = EQ n + TE ni + LU ni + LE ni 7 EQ n n TE ni LU ni 1 2 LE ni n i h t = 1 E t + M y t x ti BC ti + t -1 [ M xni n = 1 S nt I nt n t α W ti μ ti t i 1

3 130 大连海事大学学报第 39 卷 Q nti = 0 5λ ticap t = n { λ ti CAP n + 1 t n + L Q nti n i t D t t η λ ti t i CAP Q nti p ti - AVC ti - 0 5FC ti R nti = { t = n Q nti p ti - AVC ti - FC ti n + 1 t n + L FC ti AVC ti p ti t i LNG LNG 2 1 FC ti = SR ti + MG ti + RP ti + OR ti SR ti MG ti RP ti OR ti t i 55 LNG LNG AVC ti = WE ti + TR ti CAP + F t + SC t 11 γ TO nti = R nti - D t - BC ni y n I nt η m WE ti TR ti t i 1 30% F t t SC t t p TI nti = Q ti γ nti 1 + γ - F tγ ( 1 + ) 12 γ Tab 1 1 LNG Predicted number of LNG fueling stations of Liaoning Province

4 第 1 期唐磊, 等 : 液化天然气汽车加气站建设投资规划模型及其应用 m a 5% 3% 2 3 8% 3 5% 50% - 10% 13% 33% - 5% + 5% + 10% LNG LINGO Tab 2 Calculation results Fig 2 2 Sensitivity analysis results Tab 3 3 Investment time comparison - 5% + 5%

5 132 大连海事大学学报第 39 卷 4 Tab 4 4 Total stations establishment number in every zone - 10% - 5% + 5% + 10% + 10% + 5% - 5% - 10% tion of the distribution of compressed natural gas CNG refueling stations Swiss case studies J Transportation Research Part E BERSANI C MINCIARDI R SACILE R Network planning of fuelling service stations in a near-term competitive scenario of the hydrogen economy J Socio-EconomicPlanning Sciences WANG Y W LIN C C Locating road-vehicle refueling stations J Transportation Research Part E SHUKLA A PEKNY J VENKATASUBRAMANIAN V An optimization framework for cost effective design of refueling References 1 LIN W S ZHANG N GU A Z LNG liquefied natural gas A necessary part in China s future energy infrastructure J Energy ARTECONI A BRANDONI C EVANGELISTA D et al Life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis of LNG as a heavy vehicle station infrastructure for alternative fuel vehicles J Computers and Chemical Engineering KUBY M LIM S The flow-refueling location problem for alternative-fuel vehicles J Socio-Economic Planning Sciences KUBY M LINES L SCHULTZ R et al Optimization of hydrogen stations in Florida using the flow - refueling loca- fuel in Europe J Applied Energy tion model J International Journal of Hydrogen Energy LNG J LI Z L Application of LNG refueling stations and vehicle technology J City Vehicle in Chinese J YANG J MENG W D XIONG Q W Optimal investment timing and investment scale decision making under uncer- 4 LNG tainty J Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice J CHEN S P REN Y P YIN J S et al Application of in Chinese 12 MELAINA M W Initiating hydrogen infrastructures preliminary skid-mounted LNG vehicle filling station J Gas & Heat in Chinese 5 FRICK M AXHAUSEN K W CARLE G et al Optimiza- analysis of a sufficient number of initial hydrogen stations in the US J International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

85% NCEP CFS 10 CFS CFS BP BP BP ~ 15 d CFS BP r - 1 r CFS 2. 1 CFS 10% 50% 3 d CFS Cli

85% NCEP CFS 10 CFS CFS BP BP BP ~ 15 d CFS BP r - 1 r CFS 2. 1 CFS 10% 50% 3 d CFS Cli 1 2 3 1. 310030 2. 100054 3. 116000 CFS BP doi 10. 13928 /j. cnki. wrahe. 2016. 04. 020 TV697. 1 A 1000-0860 2016 04-0088-05 Abandoned water risk ratio control-based reservoir pre-discharge control method