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7 NCEP operational S1 scores at 36 and 72 hr over North America (500 hpa) 75 e r o c s 1 S hr forecast "useless forecast" 72 hr forecast years 25 "perfect forecast" Year. 7

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13 2000Millennium Perspectives ATM

14 [1] Shapiro, M. and S. Grnäs. The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones. Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp. [2] Holton, J. R. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 4 th Edition, Academic Press pp. [3] Kalnay, E. Numerical Weather Forecasting and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, pp. [4] Doviak, R. J. and D. S. Zrnici. Doppler Radar and Weather Observations. Academic Press, [5] AMS. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, Edited by P.S. Ray pp. Kidder, S... [14] [15] Anthes, R.A. Recent applications of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model to synoptic, mesoscale, and climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1990, [16] Emanuel, K.A. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci [17] Zhang, D.-L., K. Gao and D. B. Parsons. Numerical simulation of an intense squall line during June 1985 PRE-STORM. Part I: Model verification. Mon. Wea. Rev Rotunno, R., and J.B. Klemp, and M.L. Weisman. A theory for strong, long-lived squall lines, J. Atmos. Sci [22] Shapiro, M.A. and A. J. Thorpe. THORPEX: a global atmospheric research programme for the beginning of the 21st century, WMO Bulletin Vol. 54, No See 14

15 [24] Daley, R. Atmospheric Data Analysis. Cambridge University Press, pp..... n ~ ~ n ~ n [39] AMS.. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, doi: /nature

16 An Overview of Centenary Advances and Prospects in Atmospheric Sciences Da-Lin ZHANG (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, U.S.A.) Abstract The atmospheric science has been advanced from a subjective art to a mathematical and physical science during the past century, with an accelerated pace in the recent 50 years. In this paper, major advances in atmospheric measurements, numerical weather prediction and climate research are reviewed and prospects of the atmospheric sciences in the 21st century are speculated. Undoubtedly, the rapid progress in atmospheric sciences in both the past and the future is highly determined by the technical developments in atmospheric measurements and computing power as well as information technology. As a result, the model grid resolution has continued to increase with time; a growing amount of in situ and remote sensing (e.g., satellite) data, after retrieval and assimilation, has been incorporated into the model initial conditions and the global meteorological analysis; model physical processes and parameterizations have become more realistic, thereby leading to the persistent improvements in the global and regional meteorological predictions. Similarly, the statistic analysis of tremendous observed data and the conduct of many coupled climate-model simulations have considerably advanced our understanding of the dynamical mechanisms by which climate change and its impact occur, particularly for those associated with the global warming, the effects of human activity, and the development of the ENSO-related events. It appears today that unified regional and global models tend to be developed; modelprediction periods for our daily weather and larger-scale flows will be extended; and more efforts will likely be devoted to ensemble forecasts with sufficient numbers of members to represent uncertainty in both initial conditions and models. Climate research will focus more on minimizing uncertainties in the parameterization of various physical and chemical processes, and in the model grid resolution, in order to reasonably predict the regional to global climate changes at the monthly to intra-seasonal and decadal time scales. It is speculated that in the near future measuring and forecasting various (meteorological or biological) variables in the earth-space system will be gradually digitized and automated; the location and timing of severe weather events may be predicted 3-5 days in advance; and some breakthroughs in weather modification could be made in the 21st century. Meanwhile, we may see the coordinated efforts from all the countries that are devoted to the establishment of a comprehensive earthspace-observing system, and the development of a unified, sophisticated earth-space-disaster mitigation modeling system. Then, the observed and modeled data will be used to monitor closely the natural variability of the earth-space system at all spatial scales to ensure the persistent advances in human society. Key words: Atmospheric sciences, atmospheric measurements, numerical weather forecasts, climate prediction, supercomputing. 16

Microsoft Word - 廖镜彪284—new

Microsoft Word - 廖镜彪284—new 28 4 Vol.28 No.4 2012 8 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Aug. 2012. WRF [J]. 2012 28(4): 461-470. :1004-4965(2012)04-0461-10 1, 2 1 1 2 1 (1. 510275 2. 210093) ( ) WRF 3 km WSM6 KF BMJ GD G3 2010 5 14 KF