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1 Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, July 2010, 18(4): DOI: /SP.J * 刘彦随 1,2 刘玉 1,2 郭丽英 3 ( ; ; ) 全球气候呈现变暖的趋势, 对农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响, 并成为当今全球环境变化关注的热点问题之一本文采用文献综述与比较研究的方法, 系统分析了气候变化对光资源温度土壤质量和水环境等农业生产要素的影响机理, 探讨了气候变化对我国作物种植区域和种植制度农作物病虫害农业生产能力以及农业经济与管理等方面的实际影响, 通过梳理国外应对气候变化的主要农业战略, 提出新时期我国应对气候变化的农业可持续发展策略农业生产粮食安全气候变化应对策略中国 : F329.9;S162.5 : A : (2010) Impact of climatic change on agricultural production and response strategies in China LIU Yan-Sui 1,2, LIU Yu 1,2, GUO Li-Ying 3 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China; 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China; 3. Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing , China) Abstract A number of studies indicate increasing global climate warming especially in recent decades. Climate warming greatly influences global agro-production and food security the focus of global environmental change. This paper proposes a structural and orientational framework for scientifically addressing climatic change impact on agro-production. Through literature review and comparative studies, the paper systematically summarizes influencing mechanisms and effect of climate warming on such agro-production factors as light, temperature, soil quality and water environment. The impact of climate warming on cultivation regions, cropping systems, crop pests, agro-production capacity, agro-economy and farm management is analyzed. Then, suitable climate-adapted agro-development strategies are put forward for different regions in China. The strategies are carefully selected from a repository of international tested climatic change countermeasures in agriculture at national or district level. Key words Agro-production, Food security, Climatic change, Response strategy, China (Received Nov. 11, 2009; accepted March 18, 2010) 1 气候变化的主要特点,, [1],, [2], [3] [4],, * ( , ) (973 ) (2006CB400505) (1965~),, liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn : :

2 [5] 2007 IPCC 4, 1906~ , 0.74, 0.78±0.27, [5] [6 9] CO 2, 20~100 [10] s 1.68, [11] 21, 1.6~5, 1.5%~20%;, ;, [12] 1990s,,, (SARD) 2 气候变化对农业生产的影响,, ;, 2.1,, ( 1) 2.1.1,, [13], 2~3 [14] ; 10 : 1951, Fig. 1 图 1 气候变化对农业生产的影响 Impacts of climatic change on agricultural production

3 4 : [15] 1979~ , ; 10 0~5 d, 0~5 d; 10 0~5 d [16] (GHG),,, 1961~2005 : d 10a 1 ; 10, 0 [17], 2.1.3,,,, ;,, [18] C-N [19],,,, [20],, 2.1.4,, 15%, [21],,,, [22], [23] IPCC, ; ; ,,,,,,,,, [21] 20 90,, [24] ;, [25] ; [26] %, 62.3% 39.2%, 24.2% 24.9%, 13.5% 35.9% [27] 2.2.2,, [28], [29] ;, [30], 1~2 ; 2.69, 3 [31] 2006~2007,, [32] CO 2 [33] ;,, [34]

4 [35] 1, 3%~10% 20, 4.5% [36],,, [37] ; CO 2 ; CO 2, 2.5%~12% [38] 2.2.4,, C 3, C 4 [13],,,, 1990~2007, hm 2, hm 2 ; hm 2, hm , hm 2, [32], 3 应对气候变化的主要农业发展策略 3.1 (1),, : GHG, CO 2, ;, : 20~30,, (2), [39], CO 2, [40], ;, [41], GHG [42],,, GHG [40] (3) [43] [44],,,, [45] ;, [46] 3.2,, (1),,

5 4 : 909 (2), (3), [47], ( ), (4), ;,, ; ;,, 参考文献 [1],. [J]., 2009(3): [2],. / [J]., 2002, 21(3): [3]. [J]., 1996, 51(3): [4],,,. [J]., 2009, 5(2): [5],,,. (I): [J]., 2005, 1(1): 4 9 [6],,. 40 [J]., 2007, 27(4): [7],,,. [J]., 2008, 24(3): [8],,,. [J]., 2007, 23(5): [9],,. 43 [J]., 2005, 23(2): [10],,,. ( ): [J]., 2006, 2(1): 3 8 [11],,. [J]. :, 2003, 2(2): [12],,. IPCC-AR4 21 [J]., 2008, 27(4): [13],,,. [M]. :, 2003 [14],,,. [J]., 2009, 17(1): [15],,, [J]., 2008, 19(8): [16],,. 45 [J]., 2009, 30(1): [17],,,. [J]., 2009, 24(5): [18],,. [J]., 2007, 26(2): [19],,,. N [J]., 2007, 31(2): [20] Liu Y S, Wang D W, Gao J. Land use/cover changes, the environment and water resources in northeast China[J]. Environmental Management, 2005, 36(5): [21],,,. ( ): [J]., 2006, 2(2): [22],,. [J]., 2003(2): [23],. [J]., 2008, 44(4): [24],,,. [J]., 2008, 17(3): [25],,. [J]., 2005, 20(1): [26],,. [J]., 2007, 27(5): [27] Futang W. Impacts of climate change on cropping system and

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1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)(

1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)( 24 1 Vol.24 No.1 94 2008 1 Transactions of the CSAE Jan. 2008 2008 1 100094 2 100035 3 100081 4 100081 5 100101 GIS ( ) 65.12 16.82 13.74 15.27 11.07 t/(hm 2 a) 10.93% 41.43% 46.93% 65.4%. Bi Jiye, Zhu