58 1 AMOS [1] [13]202 [14] [15] E 1 1 [2] [3] [5] [16] [6] [7] [8], [9] [10] [11] [12] 2

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2 58 1 AMOS [1] [13]202 [14] [15] E 1 1 [2] [3] [5] [16] [6] [7] [8], [9] [10] [11] [12] 2

3 [19] 1 2 [20] 3 3 [17] [21] H 1-1 H H H H1-4 [18] H Journal of Public Management

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5 18% [25] Cronbach α H4 =1 4-1 H4-1 SPSS13.0 KMO H H % 4-4 H H wzc % [26] 3 Journal of Public Management

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10 J J M E. 3 M M A G. M E. 4 M M M M M A. M M J M J W. M. 2. M SIMPLIS M. 3. M H S. 4. M. M J. 28. M M. 29ROSENTHAL UCHARLES M T. Coping with CrisesThe Management of DisastersRiots and Terrorism M. 7. J Springfield IllCharles C. Thomas M J

11 the evaluation differences among all groupsand the importance of specific policies. Studies have shownthe policy on the basic living security and rural housing renewal has been implemented wellthe policy of repair and reconstruction of urban housing and employment assistance has not been carried out so wellthe more greatly the groups are affected the worse the evaluation of policy implementation is. Based on analysis results some policy recommendations are put forward at last. Key WordsWenchuan EarthquakePost-disaster ReconstructionPolicy Implementation Implemental Evaluation 7Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Public Service Capacity of County Governments and its Influential Factors Case Study in Jiangxi and Hubei Provinces Li Xiaoyuan 57 Business CollegeJiangxi Normal UniversityNanchang330022China Abstract ID EA AbstractOn the basis of systematical literature review on the theoriesmethods and ideas of public service capacity home and abroadthis paper makes a reference of business theory to build a relational model of the public service capacity of county governments and its influential factors. In 18 counties in Jiangxi and Hubei provincesquestionnaires are surveyed to collect first-hand information in order to conduct empirical testing. The findings are as the followingsthe factors influencing the public service capacity of county governments contain mainly administrative environmenthuman resourcesgovernment response and administrative culture especiallythe capacities of public service planningresource allocation and crisis management are affected most by human resourcethe capacity of resource extraction is impacted most by administrative environment the implementation capacity is influenced most by government response. Therefore it is crucial for county governments to construct high-quality human resource for improving their public service capacity is fundamental for them to enhance positive interaction between government response and the quality of public serviceit is important for them to deepen administrative system reform in order to improve administrative environment it is essential for them to build administrative culture. Key WordsCounty GovernmentsPublic Service Capacity Influential FactorsStructural Equation Modeling ABSTRACTS Journal of Public Management 125 8China's Fertility Forecast and Fertility Policy Prospects Jiang Quanbao 67 Institute for Population and Development StudiesSchool of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an710049China Abstract ID EA AbstractThere is dramatic discrepancy in the estimation of current total fertility rate in Chinawhich affects the implementing and adjusting of China's fertility policies. The trend of China's future fertility level is certainly important for enacting fertility policies. Based on adjusted fertility rates this article forecasts China's fertili-

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untitled 19932005 1 1993-2005 The Urban Residential Housing System in Shanghai 1993-2005: the Marketization Process and Housing Affordability Jie Chen, Assistant Professor, Management School of Fudan University,