此前仓位较低的基金公司加仓明显 表 3 基金公司加仓前 5 基金公司 08 年 4 季度平均仓位 主动变化仓位 宝盈基金管理有限公司 47.39% 1.73% 华商基金管理有限公司 61.16% 2.01% 兴业全球基金管理有限公司 48.37% 2.20% 摩根士丹利华鑫基金管理有限公司 48.1

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1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2009/2/16 星期二 研究所 : 胡新辉 基金保持谨慎, 未大规模入市 年初以来股市的大幅度上涨是否为基金所推动? 基金有无大规模入市? 本文通过华泰证券的基金仓 位监测系统回答这个问题 比较的基准谁 08 年 12 月 31 日, 仓位测算日为 2 月 16 日 监测的 267 只偏股型基金 08 年 4 季度加权平均仓位为 66.83%,2 月 16 日加权平均仓位为 72.57%, 上 升了 5.74% 主动仓位仅增加了 0.24%, 显示了整体上基金依然谨慎, 并没有大规模的建仓 148 只股票型基金仓位上升了 5.52%,119 只偏股型基金上升了 5.83%, 两个类型的基金主动仓位增 加都不超过 0.5% 08 年 4 季度仓位较低的基金加仓明显, 显然基金经理奋起直追, 唯恐落后 表 1 主动仓位增加前 10 代码 名称 测算仓位 被动变化仓位 主动仓位变化 OF 国联安德盛红利 22.30% 1.36% 11.15% OF 易方达科翔 39.87% 6.07% 6.66% OF 华安核心优选 29.63% 4.37% 6.24% OF 景顺长城公司治理 20.06% 2.37% 6.19% OF 宝盈鸿利收益 9.00% 0.85% 5.64% OF 兴业可转债 17.58% 2.37% 5.63% OF 鹏华盛世创新 29.65% 4.20% 5.40% OF 华宝兴业大盘精选 48.29% 7.03% 5.04% OF 华夏策略精选灵活配置 38.17% 7.94% 3.95% 多只基金仓位超过 90%, 基金经理手中已无粮草可用 表 2 基金高仓位前 10 代码 名称 测算仓位 测算日被动变化仓位主动仓位变化 OF 嘉实主题精选 95.64% 1.29% -0.13% OF 博时特许价值 95.23% 1.49% -0.03% OF 东方精选 94.91% 1.57% 0.08% OF 中邮核心优选 93.77% 2.37% 0.26% OF 上投摩根中国优势 92.30% 2.14% -0.07% OF 光大保德信量化 92.20% 2.19% 0.24% OF 友邦华泰积极成长 91.97% 2.34% 0.07% OF 信达澳银领先增长 90.30% 2.58% -0.54% OF 银华核心价值优选 89.68% 2.63% 0.14% OF 国泰金牛创新成长 89.63% 3.02% -0.10% 第 1 页共 8 页

2 此前仓位较低的基金公司加仓明显 表 3 基金公司加仓前 5 基金公司 08 年 4 季度平均仓位 主动变化仓位 宝盈基金管理有限公司 47.39% 1.73% 华商基金管理有限公司 61.16% 2.01% 兴业全球基金管理有限公司 48.37% 2.20% 摩根士丹利华鑫基金管理有限公司 48.12% 2.77% 国联安基金管理有限公司 47.77% 3.09% 表 4 开放式偏股型基金仓位监测明细 代码 名称 测算仓位 测算日与测算日被主动仓位报告日总动变化仓变化仓位变化位 OF 嘉实主题精选 95.64% 1.16% 1.29% -0.13% OF 博时特许价值 95.23% 1.46% 1.49% -0.03% OF 东方精选 94.91% 1.64% 1.57% 0.08% OF 中邮核心优选 93.77% 2.63% 2.37% 0.26% OF 上投摩根中国优势 92.30% 2.08% 2.14% -0.07% OF 光大保德信量化核心 92.20% 2.43% 2.19% 0.24% OF 友邦华泰积极成长 91.97% 2.41% 2.34% 0.07% OF 信达澳银领先增长 90.30% 2.04% 2.58% -0.54% OF 银华核心价值优选 89.68% 2.77% 2.63% 0.14% OF 国泰金牛创新成长 89.63% 2.92% 3.02% -0.10% OF 易方达价值成长 89.49% 3.43% 3.03% 0.40% OF 广发小盘成长 89.45% 3.40% 3.16% 0.24% OF 友邦华泰价值增长 89.41% 2.89% 3.16% -0.27% OF 富国天惠精选成长 88.73% 2.18% 2.31% -0.12% OF 光大保德信红利 88.22% 2.97% 3.03% -0.06% OF 富国天瑞强势地区精选 87.63% 3.78% 3.23% 0.55% OF 光大保德信新增长 86.79% 4.00% 4.02% -0.02% OF 国泰金马稳健回报 86.68% 3.92% 4.03% -0.11% OF 上投摩根成长先锋 86.55% 2.54% 2.71% -0.17% OF 泰达荷银首选企业 86.44% 2.61% 3.06% -0.46% OF 景顺长城内需增长 85.71% 3.75% 3.50% 0.24% OF 融通领先成长 85.59% 3.08% 3.36% -0.28% OF 国泰金鹏蓝筹价值 85.02% 3.87% 3.94% -0.07% OF 益民创新优势 84.59% 4.30% 4.21% 0.09% OF 中邮核心成长 84.35% 5.11% 4.52% 0.58% OF 融通行业景气 84.34% 3.58% 3.78% -0.20% OF 招商优质成长 84.00% 3.63% 3.84% -0.21% OF 泰信优质生活 83.97% 4.40% 4.27% 0.13% OF 华安宏利 83.96% 4.50% 4.17% 0.33% 第 2 页共 8 页 2

3 OF 新世纪优选分红 83.57% 3.62% 4.08% -0.45% OF 融通动力先锋 83.27% 3.65% 4.09% -0.44% OF 华安中小盘成长 83.15% 4.90% 4.72% 0.18% OF 华宝兴业收益增长 83.03% 4.79% 4.65% 0.13% OF 银华优质增长 82.99% 3.85% 4.14% -0.29% OF 景顺长城内需增长 2 号 82.67% 4.64% 4.15% 0.48% OF 海富通风格优势 82.65% 4.75% 4.55% 0.20% OF 鹏华动力增长 82.32% 4.35% 4.20% 0.15% OF 上投摩根内需动力 81.94% 3.63% 3.92% -0.29% OF 嘉实研究精选 81.89% 4.11% 4.17% -0.07% OF 中欧新趋势 81.69% 4.85% 4.69% 0.16% OF 银华富裕主题 81.63% 4.26% 4.37% -0.12% OF 中银持续增长 81.44% 4.25% 4.28% -0.03% OF 博时主题行业 81.42% 4.51% 4.50% 0.01% OF 长信金利趋势 81.41% 4.55% 4.57% -0.02% OF 海富通股票 81.28% 5.09% 4.57% 0.52% OF 交银施罗德稳健配置 80.55% 4.73% 4.21% 0.52% OF 华商领先企业 80.54% 5.50% 5.16% 0.34% OF 博时新兴成长 80.28% 4.67% 4.77% -0.10% OF 华宝兴业先进成长 80.16% 5.93% 5.49% 0.45% OF 华富竞争力优选 80.13% 4.38% 5.17% -0.79% OF 申万巴黎新经济 80.07% 5.12% 4.72% 0.40% OF 汇丰晋信龙腾 79.97% 4.91% 4.59% 0.32% OF 长城品牌优选 79.86% 5.19% 5.15% 0.04% OF 申万巴黎新动力 79.84% 5.18% 4.80% 0.38% OF 嘉实服务增值行业 79.82% 4.46% 4.18% 0.28% OF 国泰金鼎价值精选 79.80% 4.83% 5.16% -0.33% OF 南方隆元产业主题 79.65% 6.03% 5.24% 0.79% OF 光大保德信优势配置 79.60% 4.98% 4.92% 0.06% OF 嘉实策略增长 79.57% 4.20% 4.25% -0.04% OF 交银施罗德精选 79.45% 3.11% 4.03% -0.92% OF 长盛同德主题增长 79.39% 4.84% 4.76% 0.08% OF 中信红利精选 79.39% 3.94% 4.07% -0.13% OF 景顺长城资源垄断 79.13% 5.04% 4.93% 0.12% OF 新世纪优选成长 78.98% 4.90% 4.97% -0.07% OF 交银施罗德成长 78.70% 4.42% 4.48% -0.06% OF 博时第三产业成长 78.64% 4.27% 4.06% 0.21% OF 华富成长趋势 78.48% 4.87% 4.65% 0.22% OF 建信恒久价值 78.32% 5.82% 5.26% 0.55% OF 信诚精萃成长 78.22% 5.54% 5.37% 0.17% OF 鹏华优质治理 78.14% 5.45% 5.17% 0.28% OF 景顺长城优选股票 77.84% 3.93% 4.54% -0.61% 第 3 页共 8 页 3

4 OF 华安策略优选 77.26% 4.57% 4.78% -0.20% OF 大成创新成长 77.00% 4.97% 5.18% -0.21% OF 大成蓝筹稳健 77.00% 5.85% 5.37% 0.48% OF 交银施罗德蓝筹 76.92% 4.24% 4.51% -0.26% OF 华宝兴业行业精选 76.86% 5.74% 5.49% 0.25% OF 华夏行业精选 76.81% 6.40% 5.41% 1.00% OF 长盛动态精选 76.77% 5.74% 5.58% 0.15% OF 华夏复兴 76.60% 6.30% 5.23% 1.07% OF 上投摩根阿尔法 76.51% 3.94% 4.00% -0.06% OF 国泰金龙行业精选 76.44% 4.49% 5.19% -0.70% OF 泰达荷银行业精选 76.34% 4.79% 4.57% 0.22% OF 富国天合稳健优选 76.17% 4.37% 4.57% -0.20% OF 国联安德盛精选 76.07% 7.60% 5.75% 1.85% OF 景顺长城精选蓝筹 75.93% 5.63% 5.57% 0.07% OF 华宝兴业宝康消费品 75.84% 5.67% 5.50% 0.18% OF 富国天成红利灵活配置 75.64% 4.65% 4.53% 0.13% OF 华夏优势增长 75.54% 4.93% 5.01% -0.07% OF 浦银安盛价值成长 75.48% 5.23% 5.37% -0.15% OF 中银动态策略 75.44% 5.24% 4.96% 0.27% OF 景顺长城鼎益 75.14% 5.06% 5.19% -0.13% OF 易方达策略成长 2 号 74.91% 4.76% 4.42% 0.34% OF 汇丰晋信 % 4.97% 4.98% -0.01% OF 景顺长城新兴成长 74.64% 4.67% 4.83% -0.17% OF 国投瑞银创新动力 74.57% 6.22% 5.38% 0.84% OF 易方达策略成长 74.53% 4.72% 4.37% 0.36% OF 兴业全球视野 74.52% 5.99% 5.57% 0.42% OF 工银瑞信红利 74.39% 6.47% 5.74% 0.73% OF 大成景阳领先 74.38% 5.88% 5.44% 0.44% OF 泰达荷银市值优选 74.36% 5.99% 4.90% 1.09% OF 天治创新先锋 74.35% 4.91% 5.01% -0.10% OF 国投瑞银核心企业 74.29% 5.60% 5.40% 0.20% OF 建信优选成长 74.27% 5.80% 5.74% 0.06% OF 长信银利精选 74.20% 5.69% 5.60% 0.09% OF 嘉实优质企业 74.19% 3.80% 4.42% -0.62% OF 鹏华价值优势 74.14% 6.58% 6.02% 0.57% OF 鹏华普天收益 74.05% 6.06% 5.86% 0.21% OF 嘉实增长 73.97% 4.68% 4.88% -0.20% OF 建信优化配置 73.96% 6.62% 5.81% 0.81% OF 银华领先策略 73.84% 6.27% 5.80% 0.48% OF 广发聚丰 73.71% 5.80% 4.98% 0.82% OF 国投瑞银成长优选 73.54% 6.40% 5.61% 0.80% OF 华夏成长 73.52% 5.33% 5.05% 0.28% 第 4 页共 8 页 4

5 OF 兴业社会责任 73.47% 7.88% 6.40% 1.48% OF 广发核心精选 73.40% 6.21% 5.96% 0.25% OF 易方达科汇灵活配置 73.39% 6.18% 6.65% -0.47% OF 海富通强化回报 73.33% 4.26% 5.57% -1.31% OF 万家公用事业 73.32% 7.37% 6.48% 0.89% OF 东方策略成长 73.04% 5.02% 5.90% -0.88% OF 海富通精选 72.93% 5.67% 5.88% -0.21% OF 易方达价值精选 72.81% 6.04% 5.91% 0.13% OF 大成价值增长 72.62% 6.05% 5.77% 0.29% OF 诺安股票 72.18% 6.42% 6.01% 0.41% OF 银河竞争优势成长 72.12% 6.00% 5.80% 0.20% OF 诺安价值增长 72.03% 6.40% 5.89% 0.51% OF 易方达科讯 71.84% 4.99% 5.33% -0.34% OF 华夏大盘精选 71.72% 9.67% 7.94% 1.73% OF 诺德价值优势 71.67% 6.05% 5.99% 0.06% OF 招商安泰股票 71.53% 5.07% 5.18% -0.11% OF 广发稳健增长 71.41% 6.94% 6.50% 0.44% OF 南方高增长 71.39% 5.66% 5.76% -0.11% OF 国泰金鹰增长 71.33% 5.67% 5.91% -0.24% OF 金鹰成份股优选 71.31% 6.40% 5.92% 0.48% OF 易方达积极成长 71.26% 5.75% 5.39% 0.37% OF 嘉实稳健 71.23% 4.47% 4.52% -0.05% OF 大成财富管理 % 6.03% 5.78% 0.25% OF 工银瑞信稳健成长 71.13% 6.14% 5.76% 0.38% OF 富国天博创新主题 70.64% 4.15% 4.11% 0.04% OF 博时精选 70.54% 5.66% 5.18% 0.48% OF 南方绩优成长 70.54% 3.37% 4.74% -1.37% OF 南方成份精选 70.49% 5.13% 5.23% -0.10% OF 宝盈资源优选 70.43% 7.62% 7.55% 0.08% OF 天治核心成长 70.26% 5.16% 5.09% 0.07% OF 华宝兴业宝康灵活配置 70.15% 7.39% 6.80% 0.59% OF 信诚盛世蓝筹 70.13% 5.87% 5.45% 0.42% OF 国联安德盛优势 69.97% 6.19% 4.68% 1.51% OF 万家和谐增长 69.93% 5.31% 5.20% 0.11% OF 大成积极成长 69.80% 7.91% 6.30% 1.60% OF 宝盈策略增长 69.67% 6.53% 6.21% 0.32% OF 海富通收益增长 69.61% 4.74% 5.44% -0.70% OF 富兰克林国海深化价值 69.57% 8.40% 7.52% 0.88% OF 华宝兴业动力组合 69.56% 7.29% 6.67% 0.62% OF 国联安德盛小盘精选 69.53% 5.77% 6.36% -0.59% OF 富兰克林国海潜力组合 69.40% 5.88% 5.48% 0.40% OF 天弘精选 69.36% 4.89% 5.12% -0.23% 第 5 页共 8 页 5

6 OF 长城安心回报 69.35% 5.07% 5.86% -0.79% OF 南方盛元红利 69.12% 6.75% 5.89% 0.87% OF 长盛同智优势成长 69.04% 5.20% 5.93% -0.73% OF 南方优选价值 69.03% 6.80% 6.22% 0.58% OF 东吴行业轮动 68.95% 5.28% 5.47% -0.19% OF 易方达中小盘 68.91% 6.56% 5.38% 1.18% OF 长信增利动态策略 68.70% 6.07% 5.82% 0.25% OF 汇添富成长焦点 68.67% 3.05% 3.88% -0.82% OF 长城消费增值 68.52% 6.67% 6.63% 0.04% OF 汇添富均衡增长 68.50% 3.30% 4.38% -1.07% OF 工银瑞信大盘蓝筹 68.48% 7.24% 6.27% 0.97% OF 南方稳健成长 68.45% 5.85% 5.14% 0.71% OF 泰达荷银周期 68.43% 4.83% 4.94% -0.11% OF 南方稳健成长 2 号 68.06% 5.42% 5.07% 0.35% OF 华夏红利 67.96% 7.31% 5.98% 1.33% OF 工银瑞信核心价值 67.92% 6.07% 4.62% 1.46% OF 长盛创新先锋灵活配置 67.85% 6.93% 6.84% 0.09% OF 宝盈泛沿海区域增长 67.79% 6.68% 5.79% 0.89% OF 招商大盘蓝筹 67.71% 7.12% 5.33% 1.79% OF 金鹰中小盘精选 67.68% 6.60% 8.11% -1.50% OF 富国天益价值 67.62% 3.73% 3.94% -0.21% OF 申万巴黎盛利精选 67.60% 6.66% 6.15% 0.51% OF 长城久富核心成长 67.59% 6.65% 5.15% 1.51% OF 信诚四季红 67.43% 6.23% 5.94% 0.29% OF 广发大盘成长 67.31% 6.73% 6.41% 0.32% OF 友邦华泰盛世中国 67.24% 5.18% 5.49% -0.32% OF 工银瑞信精选平衡 67.23% 5.74% 5.39% 0.36% OF 泰达荷银稳定 67.18% 5.46% 5.45% 0.01% OF 长盛成长价值 67.08% 6.58% 6.09% 0.49% OF 申万巴黎竞争优势 67.04% 5.41% 5.44% -0.04% OF 大成精选增值 66.89% 6.92% 5.48% 1.45% OF 富兰克林国海弹性市值 66.77% 6.58% 5.62% 0.96% OF 富国天源平衡 66.72% 5.28% 5.26% 0.03% OF 东方龙混合 66.41% 4.21% 5.92% -1.71% OF 中银收益 66.28% 6.13% 5.70% 0.44% OF 中海能源策略 66.11% 5.71% 5.74% -0.02% OF 泰达荷银效率优选 66.03% 5.39% 5.90% -0.51% OF 中银中国精选 65.57% 7.50% 6.33% 1.18% OF 汇丰晋信动态策略 65.36% 5.29% 5.76% -0.47% OF 东吴价值成长双动力 65.35% 4.34% 4.10% 0.24% OF 中欧新蓝筹灵活配置 65.32% 6.93% 5.54% 1.39% OF 南方积极配置 65.27% 6.71% 6.22% 0.49% 第 6 页共 8 页 6

7 OF 广发策略优选 65.03% 6.44% 6.49% -0.05% OF 广发聚富 64.96% 6.28% 5.70% 0.57% OF 海富通精选 2 号 64.95% 5.22% 4.98% 0.24% OF 鹏华中国 % 6.38% 6.84% -0.46% OF 泰达荷银成长 64.65% 4.17% 5.66% -1.49% OF 招商核心价值 64.42% 6.11% 5.80% 0.31% OF 泰信先行策略 64.27% 7.58% 6.47% 1.12% OF 博时价值增长 63.62% 6.65% 7.17% -0.53% OF 华夏平稳增长 63.48% 7.16% 6.71% 0.45% OF 中信经典配置 63.34% 7.06% 6.94% 0.13% OF 中海分红增利 63.14% 8.04% 7.14% 0.90% OF 汇添富优势精选 63.02% 3.54% 3.69% -0.15% OF 华夏蓝筹核心 62.85% 6.38% 6.05% 0.32% OF 摩根士丹利华鑫基础 62.54% 8.75% 6.79% 1.96% OF 华宝兴业多策略增长 62.09% 7.36% 6.61% 0.75% OF 博时价值增长 2 号 60.74% 7.84% 7.29% 0.55% OF 易方达平稳增长 59.94% 5.54% 6.31% -0.77% OF 景顺长城动力平衡 59.30% 4.02% 6.08% -2.06% OF 华安宝利配置 58.66% 8.23% 6.55% 1.68% OF 华商盛世成长 58.24% 10.96% 7.28% 3.68% OF 兴业趋势投资 58.09% 8.30% 7.01% 1.29% OF 融通蓝筹成长 58.00% 6.59% 6.64% -0.05% OF 银河稳健 57.79% 6.72% 6.51% 0.21% OF 天治品质优选 56.96% 6.32% 5.05% 1.28% OF 益民红利成长 56.83% 7.15% 7.08% 0.07% OF 泰信优势增长灵活配置 56.14% 7.21% 6.12% 1.09% OF 银华优势企业 56.07% 5.63% 6.68% -1.05% OF 富兰克林国海中国收益 56.05% 7.33% 7.46% -0.13% OF 银河银泰理财分红 55.78% 5.96% 5.92% 0.04% OF 华安创新 55.26% 6.84% 6.03% 0.81% OF 上投摩根双息平衡 55.02% 7.66% 6.42% 1.24% OF 嘉实成长收益 54.59% 4.75% 4.75% 0.00% OF 中海优质成长 54.41% 7.95% 6.47% 1.48% OF 金元比联成长动力 54.09% 5.52% 5.84% -0.32% OF 农银汇理行业成长 53.72% 7.93% 6.26% 1.67% OF 长信双利优选灵活配置 53.70% 7.41% 6.34% 1.07% OF 摩根士丹利华鑫资源 53.58% 11.13% 7.55% 3.58% OF 长城久恒 53.53% 6.45% 5.42% 1.03% OF 诺安平衡 52.96% 7.17% 7.13% 0.04% OF 招商先锋 52.47% 6.29% 6.29% 0.00% OF 国联安德盛稳健 51.95% 8.29% 5.59% 2.70% OF 国投瑞银景气行业 51.29% 8.77% 6.83% 1.94% 第 7 页共 8 页 7

8 OF 国投瑞银稳健增长 51.17% 8.16% 6.38% 1.78% OF 上投摩根双核平衡 50.39% 8.26% 6.46% 1.80% OF 东吴嘉禾优势精选 50.23% 7.26% 6.00% 1.26% OF 鹏华行业成长 49.59% 5.82% 6.57% -0.75% OF 万家双引擎灵活配置 49.31% 8.30% 5.42% 2.87% OF 华宝兴业大盘精选 48.29% 12.06% 7.03% 5.04% OF 招商安泰平衡 46.68% 6.03% 5.63% 0.40% OF 国联安德盛安心成长 43.36% 6.21% 4.31% 1.90% OF 信达澳银精华灵活配置 43.13% 8.18% 4.83% 3.35% OF 融通新蓝筹 42.36% 6.16% 6.27% -0.12% OF 博时平衡配置 41.46% 9.48% 6.50% 2.98% OF 易方达科翔 39.87% 12.74% 6.07% 6.66% OF 诺安灵活配置 38.60% 7.53% 6.63% 0.90% OF 华夏策略精选灵活配置 38.17% 11.89% 7.94% 3.95% OF 华夏回报 2 号 36.98% 5.84% 5.86% -0.01% OF 汇添富蓝筹稳健 36.72% 4.78% 2.85% 1.93% OF 华夏回报 34.56% 5.49% 5.54% -0.05% OF 汇丰晋信 % 4.40% 5.27% -0.86% OF 鹏华盛世创新 29.65% 9.60% 4.20% 5.40% OF 华安核心优选 29.63% 10.62% 4.37% 6.24% OF 国联安德盛红利 22.30% 12.51% 1.36% 11.15% OF 泰达荷银风险预算 21.84% 6.22% 3.51% 2.70% OF 景顺长城公司治理 20.06% 8.56% 2.37% 6.19% OF 兴业可转债 17.58% 8.00% 2.37% 5.63% OF 天治财富增长 10.96% 0.70% 1.18% -0.48% OF 申万巴黎盛利强化配置 10.21% 0.48% 1.83% -1.35% OF 宝盈鸿利收益 9.00% 6.49% 0.85% 5.64% OF 银河收益 6.73% 2.28% 1.81% 0.47% 免责条款 : 本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料, 我公司对这些信息的正确性和完整性不作保证 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成证券买卖的出价或征价 我公司及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易, 还可能为这些公司提供或争取投资银行业务服务 本报告的版权仅为我公司所有, 未经书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式翻版 复制 刊登 发表或引用 第 8 页共 8 页 8