中國崛起之再省思：

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斫纪潘
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1 論率 Rick Harbaugh 李 1980 年陸率不不陸都了率不陸率率陸陸率陸率率不令不陸率度離了理論說 (life-cycle hypothesis) 1 說 (permanent income hypothesis) 2 理論行滑 smooth out 理論論 1 F. Modigliani and R. Brumberg, Utility analysis and the consumption function: an analysis of cross-section data,. in K. Kurihara, Post-Keynesian Economics (New Brunswick, NJ : Rutgers University Press, 1954). 2 Friedman M., A Theory of the Consumption Function (Princeton: Princeton University Press,1957). 1

2 立便來來不陸率都例都率陸不理論了更率陸切 ( ) 率陸率理論行理論來率率陸行 2

3 理論不行來來來數利率說說理論行滑更年來年累老年狀不率理論率說說理論率不數理論率切不例羅 (solow model) 率累令 Carroll Weil 3

4 (growth-savings paradox) 3 率理論率不度來陸率陸率率都理陸率都來來率 (discount rate) 參數來率都異例年都來率來都了年了率率不來率率 3 Christopher D. Carrol and David N. Weil, "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 40 (1994), p.133. p.192; Christopher D. Carroll, Jody Overland, and David N. Weil, Saving and growth with habit formation, American Economic Review, Vol.90 (2000), p.341. p

5 都率降 Horioka 度更 4 Kraay 行陸率都力 5 陸不說都不例不靈不狀不來滑論不例類率降率理 4 Charles Y. Horioka, Are the Japanese selþsh, altruistic, or dynastic?, NBER working paper 8577, Art Kraay, Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review (2000). 5

6 不參數不 intertemporal 力 6 例狀切降不數率陸陸更不歷若陸率理不例率不流說年年理論立年不來累金年不易了 6 Christopher D. Carrol, Jody Overland, and David N. Weil, Saving and growth with habit formation, American Economic Review, Vol. 90 (2000), p.341. p

7 不流不率理不不不不不不都 adverse selection 陸不易陸率度例例兩率降歷陸都歷陸率力 20 不率率都狀率陸說度亂狀不了率歷陸率率力例陸諸率不 ( ) 數陸率滑度率狀歷 7

8 率率陸率度陸陸率例陸量來來都理率降陸例陸陸都 8

9 率不陸例降不易陸不 1 7 來率累累 inventory accumulation 都累都陸累都劣年類累陸例不累例降年累例不了 7 Art Kraay, Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review (2000). 9

10 累陸度度陸力更了陸率降年說理論年來率力年更更率 8 率了來年老更都率不不不連陸更不陸率降不陸率 Kraay 陸老年率陸理 9 8 Franco Modigliani, Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations, American Economic Review, Vol. 76 (1986), p.297. p Art Kraay, Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review (2000). 10

11 率度來量利率率度利率率不理不率不利率都狀例 1970 年利率零率不都理論陸利率都數陸類不陸率力例陸了率論力利滑陸率不陸陸略陸便陸陸流不陸易易 11

12 率理力更率都說力不說度率更復陸率來料率理更念不不便不度 12

13 了例論都了 Carroll Overland and Weil 了更陸率力率了 (demonstration effect) 了 12 不 Harbaugh 13 Toche 14 來 10 Christopher D. Carrol. and David N. Weil, "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 40 (1994), p.133. p Christopher D. Carrol., Jody Overland, and David N. Weil, Saving and growth with habit formation, American Economic Review, Vol. 90 (2000), p.341. p J. S. Duesenberry, Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1949). 13 Richmond Harbaugh, Falling behind the Joneses: relative consumption and the growth-savings paradox, Economics Letters, Vol. 53 (1996) p p Patrick Toche, Keeping up with the Joneses and income risk: revisiting the growth-saving paradox," working paper (2003). 13

14 來落度了率行不都率都不了不理來來更來來不來落理了率若例 1950 年論都不例車年不了年來數年力來降落陸了 1990 年陸陸來陸了落了不例了來落不不理 14

15 理論力不來落例陸更切陸率切陸率降? ( )~( ) 陸率 2001 年降陸數了若陸率陸率行陸率識不流都率滑降例療度降療行度不不率滑度不例兩率都見率降 15

16 流年來了老年來來陸降率不不兩率滑陸率了不降率降不不陸率例累 16

17 率連了年來降陸率率不若率降聯老年數不年降率滑年率不異不陸率力不不陸率不陸度滑陸率率陸陸率陸率了陸金陸了都不陸類羅 17

18 率陸率來更更良度率來了更率說理論良良良了陸率了陸了易不陸易陸率易來陸易陸降力易陸不量降諸 1997 年金暴易更略來 capital account convertibility 降金暴陸率金陸行率落來都陸金 15 陸行不良例 15 Nicholas R. Lardy, China s UnFinished Economic Revolution (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1998). 18

19 行金流不率更金率了不例來力留來累率力累兩 16 陸力不陸例 1998 年 2001 年陸數了兩 17 論陸率不率不陸力來陸易兩說都更便陸易不例 2003 年陸了 40.5 陸率易來復不度陸陸不 16 Alwyn Young, Lessons from the East Asian NICs: a contrarian view, European Economic Review, Vol. 38 (1994) p p State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook (2003), Beijing. 19

20 陸金力降陸 Foreign Direct Investment, FDI 數量陸量陸陸陸陸度不 20

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論諸零易量零路車行不年行行年行金行年率流率行論識不易年行年行兩不兩兩行便了識易度行流識年金量更不良不便良不不行度參度度參臨數益數來行行流識率若例量度立行參行識不易料料類料論年流率益行料來度度利度度年料料