Aqua WII for Guangdong 指数类保险在广东省水产养殖保险中的应用 International Agro & NatCat Insurance Forum, October 14 th 财政风险巨灾指数保险研讨会, 10 月 14 日 Xiaofei Liu 刘晓菲 Kleonik

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1 Aqua WII for Guangdong 指数类保险在广东省水产养殖保险中的应用 International Agro & NatCat Insurance Forum, October 14 th 财政风险巨灾指数保险研讨会, 10 月 14 日 Xiaofei Liu 刘晓菲 Kleoniki Afentoulidou

2 Agenda 主要内容 Aquaculture in China 水产养殖情况概览 Weather Index solutions 指数类保险方法介绍 Case study 案例分析 Q&A 2

3 Aquaculture in China 渔业生产情况概览 3

4 Role of China in the Industry 中国渔业生产现状 Aquaculture: Top 10 producer countries in 2014 China 58'795 Indonesia 14'331 India Vietnam Philippines Bangladesh Republic of Korea Norway Chile Egypt 4'884 3'411 2'338 1'957 1'567 1'333 1'227 1' '000 20'000 30'000 40'000 50'000 60'000 70'000 [1 000 tons] Source: 4

5 shandong guangdong fujian zhejiang liaoning jiangsu hubei guangxi jiangxi hunan anhui hainan sichuan hebei henan yunnan heilongjiang chongqing tianjin shanghai guizhou jilin ningxia shaanxi neimenggu xinjiang beijing shanxi gansu qinghai xizang Role of Guangdong in China 中国各省市渔业生产情况及广东的地位 [tons] 10'000'000 9'000'000 2 nd largest producer 8'000'000 7'000'000 6'000'000 5'000'000 4'000'000 3'000'000 2'000'000 1'000'000 0 Offshore yield Onshore yield Capture yield 5

6 China`s Aquaculture Insurance Market 中国渔业保险损失情况 10 Year Loss Rate by Province 10 年各省损失率情况 6

7 Aquaculture Insurance Challenges in China (1/2) 我国现有水产养殖保险困境 1/2 Adverse Experiences in the Past 历史经验缺乏 Government Subsidy 政府补贴较少 Limited Risk Management Capabilities 风险管理能力不足 Limited Loss Adjusting Expertise 定损经验有限 Availability of Data 数据收集困难 7

8 Aquaculture Insurance Challenges in China (2/2) 我国现有水产养殖保险困境 2/2 推动政府加大扶持和补贴力度在保险产品设计方面为政府提供合理化建议历史经验缺乏开展专业风险评估确保充足费率应用指数类保险政府补贴较少风险管理能力不足制定风险管理指南实地调查并共享风险管理方法学习国际先进经验优化理赔流程为核赔人员提供更多培训定损经验有限数据收集困难收集行业报告数据建立统计数据库 8

9 Weather Index Solutions 指数化保险在水产养殖中应用 9

恶劣天气和水温降低导致损失在鲑鱼的海水养殖 accessibility issue due to bad weather

10 An alternative to Indemnity products 指数保险可以用于水产养殖业 Salmon off-shore loss due to heavy weather and cold water 中, 恶劣天气和水温降低导致损失在鲑鱼的海水养殖 accessibility issue due to bad weather 然而由于天气原因无法及时到达被保险标的地点 loss adjustment hindered 定损困难 payment delayed 理赔延迟 10

11 Index can be used 常用气象指数降水量不足降水量偏多高温寡照指数保险条款低温大风高湿度更多 11

12 Feasibility 经验总结 Prerequisites for Weather Index Implementation 考虑要素设计长时间的历史数据数据经过质量控制, 可用性好持续可靠的数据观测和获取流程可由第三方提供客观计算校验指数方法理解基差风险判断, 这种方法是否合适? 作物产量与气象灾害密切相关, 并且可以被指标表征气象站数据覆盖标的范围合理实施可靠的分销渠道再保险大力支持当地直保公司积极参与有利的监管

13 Case study 案例分析 13

14 Case study 赔偿方式举例 Coastal farming strong wind insurance 沿海养殖风灾保险 It is recommended that extreme disasters to be covered, payment up to one time a year 建议承保较为极端的灾害, 一年最多只赔付一次 monthly payout ratio can be set according to the breeding cycle 根据养殖周期, 确定是否需要设定周期内每月赔付比例 E.g.:Policy brief 例如 : 保单如右侧 Insurance payment is based on Max of Daily Wmax 保险赔付规定根据每年日最大风速的最大值理赔 SI 2000 Yuan/mu,Premium100 Yuan 保额 2000 元 / 亩, 保费 100 元 A TC event, Near Central Wmax 14 level 假设当年某台风过境, 中心附近最大风力 14 级 Station observation Wmax 31m/s 该气象站观测到 31m/s 的最大风速 Wind Level 蒲福风级 Wmax(m/s) 日最大风速 (m/s) Payout(Yuan/Mu/Policy) 单位赔付 ( 元 / 亩 / 份 ) Payout 600 Yuan/mu, unite payment same in the area 则赔付为 600 元 / 亩, 该辖区内所有养殖户一致 (Assuming no monthly payout ratio here) ( 没有设置每月赔付比例的情况下 )

15 Wmax (m/s) Wind Index how the product triggers 赔付情况直观展示 Payout levels Wind Index Wind Level 10 Wind Level 11 Wind Level 12 Wind Level 13 Wind Level 14 Wind Level

16 谢谢 Thank you! 联系我们 : Kleoniki Afentoulidou, Direct: , Kleoniki_Afentoulidou@swissre.com 刘晓菲, Direct: , Xiaofei_Liu@swissre.com 16

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18 Legal notice 2016 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice. Although the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation. 18

National and Provincial Life Tables Derived from China’s 2000 Census Data

National and Provincial Life Tables Derived from China s 2000 Census Data Yong Cai Department of Sociology University of Utah Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0250 yong.cai@soc.utah.edu Feburay 21, 2005 Data available