中共在美國安全戰略中的角色

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侧吹尚
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1 略理略了見來來數例 International Security 來類力行來來 lonely superpower 1 理論度來略論略陸利略略來兩不數略論略度來 1 Samuel P. Huntington, "The Lonely Superpower," Foreign Affairs 78, no. 2 (March/April 1999). 1

2 略念說兩類力理力量易力 2 不行兩劣見見了論略 3 略利識度不論不略兩 1 不 hegemony(primacy) (preponderance) 領 (leadership)2 利利例理奈 Joseph Nye 力 2 Ken Booth, "Security and Emancipation," Review of International Studies 17 (1991), Barry Buzan, People, States, and Fear : An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era, 2nd ed. (Boulder, CO: L. Rienner, 1991). 3 參見 Stephen M. Walt, "The Renaissance of Security Studies," International Studies Quarterly 35, no. 2 (June 1991). 參 Edward A. Kolodziej, "Renaissance in Security Studies? Caveat Lector!," International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 4 (Dec. 1992). 2

3 4 Samuel Huntington 更暴力亂 5 Henry Kissinger 利 6 里 Zbigniew Brzezinsky 陸力陸陸力 7 力見冷聯力不 8 略冷 2001 年年 Quadrennial Defense Review 力利領年略 (National Security Strategy) 利力力不力 4 Joseph S. Nye, "The Case for Deep Engagement," Foreign Affairs 74, no. 4 (July/August 1995). Nye 樂 Pax Americana 力 Joseph S. Nye, The Paradox of American Power : Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), Samuel P. Huntington, "Why International Primacy Matters," International Security 17, no. 4 (Spring 1993): Henry Kissinger, Does American Need a Foreign Policy?: Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy Adn Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1997), xiv, John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment : A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), Donald H. Rumsfeld, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington: Department of Defense, Sept. 30,

4 10 了領利略 offensive realism 理論狀了不累力 11 來領便力立北力量了略了 (Manifest Destiny) 羅 Monroe Doctrine 不歷領立 12 不若立力力行力不了不若力 balancing 力復力例 10 George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington: White House, Sept John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001). 12 Ibid., chap. 7. 4

5 來落聯聯 1941 年 13 兩略便陸 buckpassing 略見 14 冷 Melvyn Leffler 冷來不陸兩略數 15 參力不 16 歷例臘羅崙兩力率不領理不論 hegemonic transition theory 便力 13 Ibid. 14 參 Ibid., chap Melvyn P. Leffler, "The American Conception of National Security and the Beginnings of the Cold War, ," The American Historical Review 89, no. 2 (Apr. 1984): Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981). 5

6 17 來不力利領行行 18 了累力力力不力 Gilpin 力力 19 理 governance 來理力來立力利利度度了利力力不利不見不利狀不不 Gilpin 力利不 hegemonic war 20 力不不力力率不不 17 Ibid, A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1982). 18 Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, 94-95, Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998). 19 Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, Ibid., 33, 197, Organski and Kugler, The War Ledger, 23. 6

7 law of uneven growth 領歷更力冷了年力論不 1979 年 GDP 了 2002 年 GDP 不率了年數力力兩陸 13 若力論來年 Pew Research Center 52% keeping close watch on China 年 Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 56% 領 (critical threat) 22 論便 21 Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Knopf, 1997). 22 David M. Lampton, "The Stealth Normalization of U.S.-China Relations," The National Interest, no. 73 (Fall 2003): 39. 7

8 16% real GDP 率 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 年料來 World Bank, World Development Indicators Online (Washington, DC.: World Bank, various years). GDP/GDP 數 *GDP (constant 1995 US$) 年 8

9 料來 World Bank, World Development Indicators Online (Washington, DC.: World Bank, various years) 料來 International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance (London: Oxford University, various editions). 年論 engage 樂利度不不 23 contain 力不利力略 23 Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (New York: Routledge, 1999). 9

10 24 congagement 不不 25 略略林聯易立了北易 NAFTA 林林更 engagement 來 comprehensive engagement 26 略林略 strategic partner 兩林見 1998 年略 The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region 臨 27 林略 strategic competitor 略來 Condoleezza Rice 2000 年不狀便力 24 Charles Krauthammer, "Why We Must Contain China," Time July 31, 1995, Gideon Rachman, "Containing China," Washington Quarterly 19, no. 1 (Winter 1996), Gerald Segal, "East Asia and the 'Constrainment' of China," International Security 20, no. 4 (Spring 1996), Arthur Waldron, "Deterring China," Commentary 100, no. 4 (October 1995). 25 Zalmay M. Khalilzad [et al.], The United States and Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1999). 26 Johnston and Ross, eds., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power. 27 William Cohen, The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 1998),

11 了領更朗林略 28 了 Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz 不利聯林陸 Japan passing 不復流林不 Richard Armitage 理 James Kelly 理 Peter BrookesWolfowitz 林略 29 利不力利不易 WTO 利立林略了不 2001 年 4 了 EP-3E 行落罹降陵兩來 very sorry 了 30 Rumsfeld 不 28 Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest," Foreign Affairs 79, no. 1 (January/February 2000). 29 David Lampton and Richard Daniel Ewing, U.S.-China Relations in a Post-September 11th World (Washington, DC: The Nixon Center, 2002), 理參見林理 [need 11

12 流更年 4 力 12 P-3 獵 ABC 更不切度更流立連年 9 11 了略不量略了羅度 Al Qaeda failed state 更朗拉北惡 axis of evil 烈識了立更論 ( either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists ) 易 nation-building 度利 Taliban 露聯理羅冷利利立量了羅理 book title]. 31 Bruce J. Dickson, "New Presidents Adjust Old Policies: Us-Taiwan Relations under Chen and Bush," Journal of Contemporary China 11, no. 33 (2002). 12

13 聯理力理 Musharraf 兩度北良蘭列更略利力 33 了論力 2003 年 1 Pew Research Center 1999 年了 13 更 WMD 年不略論略契六 35 行列度留 36 聯行 37 金來 9/11 不論不不 32 Lampton and Ewing, U.S.-China Relations in a Post-September 11th World, 略略 94 (2003.3) Ibid., Lampton, "The Stealth Normalization of U.S.-China Relations," Lampton and Ewing, U.S.-China Relations in a Post-September 11th World. 36 Robert Sutter, Grading Bush s China Policy: A-, PacNet Newsletter (March 8, 2002), available at (accessed March 8, 2002) 年

14 不利 38 window of opportunity 略 9/11 不略見來力略 9/11 略更 2001 年 9 30 年 Quadrennial Defense Review QDR 力 capabilitythreat 力不 QDR 陸年 Nuclear Posture Review 2002 年 3 漏朗拉利利北列列 40 更 2002 年 6 禮 preemption 說冷 deterrence by punishment 略不復行 deterrence by denial 念年 9 20 略 National Security Strategy 略臨 38 Aaron L. Friedberg, "11 September and the Future of Sino-American Relations," Survival 44, no. 1 (Spring 2002). 39 Donald Rumsfeld, Quadrennial Defense Review (Washington, D.C.: The Department of Defense, 2001), Michael Gordon, U.S. Nuclear Plans Sees New Targets and New Weapons, New York Times, (March 10, 2002). 41 Remarks by the President at 2002 Graduation Exercise of the United States Military Academy, West Point, June 1, 2002, available at (accessed Dec. 12, 2003). 14

15 行行 Bush Doctrine 年 7 力利律 43 度 9/11 立立 2002 年 3 參羅里行了 Wolfowitz 2002 年 8 論 10 Crawford 不立聯聯陸力略度不更了見不不陸 2003 年力力落 42 George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington: White House, Sept. 2002), James Dao, New Pentagon Report Sees Rapid Buildup by China, The New York Times, (July 13, 2002). 15

16 2002 年來 15 來不 RD 來力 2002 年 GDP 10.4 GDP 領歷 45 連 1980 年 Paul Kennedy 2002 年 500 年來金 * % 拉利朗度羅列 World Bank, World Development Indicators Online. 45 Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, "American Primacy in Perspective," Foreign Affairs 81, no. 4 (July/August 2002). 46 Paul M. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers : Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York, NY: Random House, 1987). Kennedy, The Eagle has Landed, Financial Times, February 2,

17 * 2000 年率料來 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2003: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003), Appendix 10A. 領不易力力路 Council on Foreign Relations 2003 年力力落年力年不 predominant military power 47 不略不來來狀 revisionist intentions 狀不立 (Pax Americana) 狀 Alastair Iain Johnston 說狀不 48 略了來力不狀來 future intentions 不 49 狀來狀 47 Council on Foreign Relations, "Chinese Military Power," (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2003). 48 Alastair Iain Johnston, "Is China a Status Quo Power?," International Security 27, no. 4 (Spring 2003). 49 來不 uncertainty 參 Dale C. Copeland, "The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism: A Review Essay," International Security 25, no. 2 (Fall 2000). 17

18 狀力例老利力不略不來來不 uncertainty 來不不兩不數力不 2000 年力來年力力不 50 力度量不便來利度來利力來力例聯年來 51 陸立略羅立北度來略 strategic encirclement 了了 52 力陸令了度 50 Johnston, "Is China a Status Quo Power?," Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel, "China's New Diplomacy," Foreign Affairs 82, no. 6 (November/December 2003). 52 Friedberg, "11 September and the Future of Sino-American Relations." 什來 2003 年

19 略良力立不力力略略利領不易兩 53 不略利略利易冷聯略冷略利聯不復領來利來論流論聯拉北不理 2003 年力力 54 來數 53 立論利 2003 年 Pentagon, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People s Republic of China, July 28,

20 理論度論來略論更論不不力利率力兩不力力 security competition 力力不良利力力理狀不力 capability 不易來不不力來力兩易理略 peer competitor 利不復歷 hierarchical system 力力來不力論略論力力良力力略不 20

21 力度 21

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