Maxwell [8] GDP Lipschitz McDonald [9] ULC [10] HBS [11] [12] [13] BIS IMF JP JP VAR [5] 1 W i = xi n Σx i k=1 1 4 Vol.24

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1 1,2 1,3 (1., ; 2., ; 3., ),,, CPI ; ; ; [1] [2] [3] [4] Turnovsky [5] McGuirk [6] IMF 17 San [7] ( ); (GX Z), ;,, MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No

2 Maxwell [8] GDP Lipschitz McDonald [9] ULC [10] HBS [11] [12] [13] BIS IMF JP JP VAR [5] 1 W i = xi n Σx i k=1 1 4 Vol.24 No

3 n x i i 2 W i = n x i +m i x i +m i k=1 2 n x i i m i i 3 i W i = m c W m i + x c W x i 3 x c +m c x c +m c m c x c W m i W x i W i i W m i =m i /m c 4 4 m i i W m i i W x i =W bx i +W tx i W bx i = xi y i x c y i + h c xh i 5 W tx i = h j xk c xk i x c y k + h c x k h y i i xh i k i 5 W bx i i i y i i W tx i k i IMF BIS 3 n I t =I t-1 仪 e i t i = 1 w i t-1 e i t-1 6 e w n I I 0 =100 GDP CPI PPI ULC EI t =EI t-1 仪 e i n i = 1 t P 0 t /P i t w i t-1 e i t-1 P 0 t-1 /P i t-1 P 0 t t P i t i t 7 MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No

4 ULC GDP CPI PPI CPI PPI IMF CPI IMF IMF % % % % / % 60% % % [14 15] % 18% / ( ) A B B A IMF INS ( ) Annual Review of Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade 2009, Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 4 6 Vol.24 No

5 ( ) ( ) INS ( ) / % 34.08% 32.05% 36.26% 28.52% 27.11% 31.04% 29.06% 28.67% 26.10% 24.32% 24.53% 17.35% 22.42% 23.70% 14.59% 18.76% 20.10% 8.49% 14.44% 15.58% 7.14% 12.09% 12.49% 4.90% 3.66% 3.51% 3.71% 4.07% 3.38% 3.87% 3.50% 3.43% 3.44% 5.08% 5.45% > > > % 27.56% 27.99% 29.32% 24.53% 23.69% 23.16% 21.83% 20.10% 20.80% 21.03% 22.28% > > > % 12.51% 13.15% 13.28% 3.51% 3.65% 3.81% 3.34% > > > 3.38% 3.28% 3.63% > 3.43% 3.86% 3.27% 3.72% 2.62% > 5.45% 4.65% 3.97% 3.62% MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No

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7 MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No

8 Research of RMB Exchange Rate Index Guo Kun 1,2 and Cheng Siwei 1,2 1.Research Center on Fictitious Economics and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing ; 2.China Finance Corporation, Beijing ; 3.School of Management of Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing AbstractAn exchange rate index is a weighted average of a currency against a basket of other currencies. It can reflect the synthesized competitive power of a currency more comprehensively compared with traditional bilateral ones. Based on the trade data of 2009, the currency basket of RMB is determined considering the trade inside Euro zone, the re-export business of Hong Kong and so on. Then the nominal and real effective exchange rate index are established respectively using the weight including trade competition in third-party market. Furthermore, it is found that the RMB exchange rate index is strongly related to several macro-economic variables of China, such as total trade volume, CPI and industrial added value. Key words: exchange rate index, re-export, competitive power weight, currency basket 10 Vol.24 No