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1 * ~ Haus mann ~ , (Rodrik,2006),, ( ;2008), (hold up) (Nunn,2007),, (,2008) (Rodrik,2006;,2008;,2008;,2008),, Krugman (1980) Ricardo Hausmann (2003) 1,,,,, Ricardo Hausmann, 2003 (degree of sophistication) (2005 ), :,, (international specialization pattern) * ( :07&ZD008) ( :NCET ) ( :08N48)

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7 Pedroni F , (1999) 7 Kao(1999) ADF 4,, F1 6 : : GDP , , 5 4 4,1%,,,3 P (2006) /, Hausman, 3,, Hausman, :1%,,,,, :, : Y=a i +X it β i +μ it,i=1,,n;t=1, T (4), : Y=a i +X it β+μ it,i=1,,n;t=1, T (5), : Y=a+X it β i +μ it,i=1,,n;t=1, T (6),, : : 1% (5), 5 Hausman, Charles I.Jhones(2002),,,,, R&D, S 1,S 2,S 3 (4),(5),(6),,,52 ( ) 30, Hausman(1987) 22, 3 7 F :3 輥輯訛 3 GDP F ,, 6 GDP, (2009), Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Statistic Prob Panel v Panel PP SÁSÂSÃF1 F2 Panel rho Pedroni Panel ADF a (5) (1999) Group rho b (5) Group PP a (5) Group ADF b (5) Kao(1999) Kao ADF a (5) :Statistic,Prob, b (5) :a,b

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9 , (variable intercept) ; Juan, Hausman, Carlos Hallak Peter K.Schott(2008) (,2007),,,, (cross-section weights) whiteperiod, OECD (27 ) (22 ) (2007) :,, (7),, (2007) (8), (9) (3 ), UND it OECD it CHINA it,und it i, 1, 0;OECD it i, 1, 0;CHINA it, i, 1, 0, (, 10 OECD 2007), GDP, GDP 1993~ ~ ~ ~ ~2006 LNEX LNPGDP LNP OECD *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Obs R-squared A. R-squared ~ ~ ~ ~ ~2006 LNEX LNPGDP LNP UND *** *** *** *** *** ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) *** *** *** *** ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) *** *** *** *** ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) *** *** *** * ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) * *** ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Obs R-squared A. R-squared , OECD ( 10) :OECD GDP, 1993~2004 1%,1993~2004 0, 1993~ ~ , 2004~ , 10%, 1993~2006 OECD GDP, 11 5

10 ( ) ~ ~2006, 1993~ % :,,2004~2006 1%,,, 1993 ~ ~ , 9 : 1996~2004,,,,,,,,,, ( 12) : 1993~ ~2001 1%,,, OECD,,,,, 1995, 1996~,, 1998,, :2001,,,,, Krugman(1980) Ricardo, Hausmann(2003) : GDP,,,,,,, ; 12, 1993~ ~ ~ ~ ~2006 LNEX LNPGDP LNP CHINA *** *** *** ( ) ( ) ( ) *** *** ( ) ( ) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Obs R-squared A. R-squared :,,,, GDP ,2000~2006,

11 , 4., (2005 ),, : GDP 4000,, ( ),, 20,,, NBER 1993~2006 ( 30 ), Hausmann (2005) 52 5.Juan Carlos Hallak Peter K.Schott (2008),,,,,,, ; 1. : :,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2. GDP,,,, 1Krugman (home market effect) Dani Rodrik(2006) Peter K. Schott (2006) Bin Xu Jiangyong Lu (2009) GDP, Ricardo Hausmann Dani Rodrik(2003) (Self discovery), :, 3. Schott(2006) :2000 Hummels Klenow(2005), (broader variety),,,,1993,,,, , (richer countries) 2Peter K. Schott(2006) , 1991 (), 1993, 1993,

12 ( ) GDP Working Paper,2007 GDP, (8) :,, GDP GDP GDP, GDP (9) :,,, , 1~2 (10) :,ANGOLA2005 2,,,2008 3, (11) :,,,, :AE ARG AUS (12) : AUT BEL BRA CAN CHI CHN COL CZE DEN DOM ECU EGY FIN FRA GER GRE HK HUN IND INA IRE ISR ITA JPN KOR MAL MEX NED NOR NZL PAK PHI POL POR ROM RSA RUS SIN SLO SPA SUI SVK SWE THA TUR UK UKR TW VEN 7Dani Rodrik(2006), 1992, , , : Dani Rodrik(2006) Review, Vol.95,pp. 704~723.,2007 (5) : : DEA,, (6) :,,,, (13)Bin Xu, 2007, Measuring China s Export Sophistication,China Europe International Business School Working Paper. (14)Bin Xu, Jiangyong LU, 2009, Foreign Direct Investment, Processing Trade and the Sophistication of China's Exports,China Economic Review,forthcoming. (15)Feenstra, Robert C., John Romalis and Peter K. Schott, 2002, U.S. Imports, Exports and Tariff Data,1989~2001,NBER Working Paper No (16)Hausmann, Ricardo, Jason Hwang and Dani Rodrik, , What You Export Matters, NBER Working Paper No., (17)Hummels, David and Klenow, Peter J., 2005, The Variety and Quality of a Nation s Exports, American Economic (18)Juan Carlos Hallak,Peter K. Schott, 2008, Estimating Cross-Country Differences in Product Quality, NBER Working Paper No (19)Jerry A. Hausman and Paul A. Ruud, 1987, Specifying and Testing Econometric Models for Rank-ordered Data, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.34,pp. 83~104. value ij i j,quantity ij i j,p it i (20)Kao C,1999, Spurious Regression and Residual-Based, Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data, Journal of Econometrics, 92.4%(2001 ),, Vol. 90, pp. 1~44., (21) Krugman, Paul, 1980, Scale Economics, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade, American Economic Re- 9 :,,, view, Vol.70, pp. 950 ~959. (22)Nunn, Nathan, 2007, Relationship - Specificity, Incomplete Contracts and the Pattern of Trade, The Quarterly Jour- 10, ,, nal of Economics, Vol5, pp. 569~600., (23)Pedroni P., 1999, Critical Values for Cointegration,, Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors, Oxford 輥輯訛 ( Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.66, pp.653~678. ), 2007,515 (24)Ricardo Hausmann, Dani Rodrik, 2003, Economic Development as Self-discovery, Journal of Development Economics, (1) :,,2002 Vol.72, pp.603~633. (25)Rodrik, D., 2006, What s So Special about China s (2) :, Exports, China & World Economy, Vol.14, pp.1~19.,2006 (26)Sanjaya Lall, John Weiss, Jingkang Zhang,2006, The (3) : FDI : Sophistication of Exports: A New Trade Measure, World Development,Vol,, ,pp.222~237. (4) : ( ), (27) Schott, Peter K., 2006, The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports, NBER Working Paper No (28)Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, 2008, The Rising Sophistication in China s Exports: Assessing the Roles of Processing Trade, Foreign Invested Firms, Human Capital and Government Policies, Working Paper for the NBER Conference on the (7) :, Evolving Role of China in the World Trade

2. 1%, % 3. 3% 6. 9%? Harrigan Barrows( ) 2005, 2005,,,,, ;, Harrigan Barrows , %, 5% ;, 2%, 7%, 2005, 21%, Ha

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